🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Was going to bet DODGERS....backed off.....of course they won 5 - 0

WINNER!

Results, Saturday, May 11:

 L   Nationals +142
W  Brewers -165 *BB
W  Phillies -122 *BB
W  Phil/MIA ov 7 -167
 L   LIVE BET: Twinkies -380
W  LIVE HEDGE BET after 5: JAYS +350
W  LIVE BET: Destiny. Jays -135
W  LAD/SD un 10 -138
 L   Mariners -210 *BB
W  7th, LIVE hedge BET: Oakland -200

= 7 - 3  +2.60u    (2 - 1 *BB)

BoL with your Mother's Day bets, fellas!

Sunday, May 12:

Wash/BOS un 9 -150 alt-total

Brewers -145 *BB

Clv/CWS un 9 -117

Cubs @Pitts

Despite facing two GOOD starters on Saturday they erupt for 19 runs.

Today appears to be a pitching mismatch.... Falter is good but coming off a couple less than stellar outings and should rebound, although he's a lefty facing bats that hit lefties very well..... HOWEVER, CUBS are sending out Hendricks.....and his stats rival the league's WORST!

Slight breeze blowing OUT and my stats suggest an over 8 here is in order, albeit a very close call....so I'll pass

My gut feeling says the ORIOLES - with a solid Kremer on the mound backed by a better BP - should prevail today, despite holding only a very thin edge overall in my capping stats.....just barely enough to justify small fav odds...

BUT I am concerned that in his 3 home starts at Camden Yards, he's served up 2 homers in each....and he's just come off a stellar performance @Cinci - going 6 ip but only allowing 2 on base!! While awesome, that type of performance rarely repeats itself the next game....

Pass

On the one hand we might be justified to think "no effing way that Cleveland loses 4 straight to the bottom-dwelling Whitesox"

Normally, I would agree.... 0 - 4 would defy the odds "bigly"

BUT.....this isn't a normal situation.  Cleveland appears to be in a batting slump and the WhiteSox are on a run.

Despite the fact that CWS were allowing an average of 5.2 rpg against in their home venue entering this series, the slumping Guardians have only managed 2 runs, then 3 runs, then only 1 last night.

Maybe best to pass on this one and look to other opportunities where guessing what the slumping bats may or may not do isn't involved as much...

 Guessing = gambler's ruin

Dodgers?   Sure the Dodgers have a solid edge at the plate v. Padres.....but Buehler gives me pause.

Only one start since 2022.....and that was not a good outing AT HOME, versus the weak bats of the Marlins!

I need much more to go on than that!

On the other mound, the swirling Darvish is having a GOOD season, only getting roughed up  in one of his 7 starts - which included 2 v. Dodgers where he wasn't bad at all!   In his past 2 games (v. Cinci; @Cubs) he totaled 10 ip and only allowed 7 on base

Yes, Padres have only scored 2 runs v. Dodgers this weekend, but they faced a VERY GOOD Glasnow in g1 (2 runs) then faced a mediocre lefty yesterday (no runs)....but they suck v. lefties anyway!  Padres bats are much stronger v. righties!  Buehler is a righty.

With Buehler performance being an unkown, and the Padres due to score some runs v. a "shaky" righty,  this one looks like a true coin-flip.  If the plus money was better I would lean to the homies here...

According to my capping, the following teams do have a thin edge overall but perhaps not enough to warrant a bet at the odds they are favored:

Orioles +0.6 run edge

Cubs +0.5 run edge

BoSox +0.6 run edge

Tiggers +0.4 run edge

Yankees +0.1 run edge if at all

Cleveland +0.7 run edge but not worth the heavy juice!

Rangers +0.5 run edge

Giants +0.1 run edge

Royals +0.5 run edge

Braves +0.2 run edge

Dodgers (Buehler) ???

Slugging DH Ohtani likely to be held OUT of today's game against the hungry Padres

In fact there are a whole whack of good players being given the day off today!

CHECK THOSE LINEUPS on your bets so there are no unexpected surprises!

The powerful 1st place PHILLIES are among the top 3 batting teams in all MLB batting against lefties!

They already have a ful 2-run edge at the plate to begin with!

They face a LEFTY today (Garrett), with no starts this year, who would seem to be a big question mark as to his comeback following injury, but was slightly better than average last year.

Meanwhile, WHEELER is excellent!

Phillies -204 *BB (@pinnacle)

  The BlewitJays are resting arguably their BEST BAT Sunday, JANSEN - who is also their starting catcher! The dude is on fire in May, hitting .347 and 1100 OPS!!! He was 3 for 5 yesterday!

But he's OUT.

I already bet Twinkies on the overnight line *BEFORE* learning of this this morning!

Yesterday, blowing a 7 - 1 lead to lose 8 - 10 was an aberration imo, and the TWINS should rebound today, in large part because they are the better team with superior bats and game pitching, including the mound matchup today.

Mind you, all these edges DO NOT GUARANTEE A TWINS WIN! I'm figuring a grind it out type of game, which could flip on a swing of the bat with runners on...but the edges making the difference for TWINS at very small odds.
Anyway, I'll play the favorable chances here, and won't be upset if it loses because it's all part of betting on probabilities.

2nd bet on TWINKIES -116 *BB (@pinnacle)

In the Wash/BOS game,

with a very slight wind blowing in, I have the game total pegged at 7.4 runs.
  •  In g1 I estimated the game pitching at NET ZERO (or mediocre; average) and it yielded just 6 runs.
  •  In g2 Irvin/Criswell's combined net pitching was expected to be BETTER than average and they combined again for just 6 runs.
Today,

I figure Gore/Bello should combine for slightly better than average pitching, so 6 runs is quite possible once again!....but I am bumping my estimate up to 7.4 runs just for a cushion in case I am off a bit.

In my capping style, I look at the most probable range of game total and judge that against the best value total odds I can get, including alt-totals.
In this one,   5   6   7  .  8    9p   10

I opted for the alt-total UNDER 9 -150

Note, if my est is reasonably accurate (of course anything can happen) but if I am real close in probable range, then 4 of those 6 results would be winners, 9 runs would be a safe push, and only 10+ is a loser. So, 4 to 1 odds with a -150 line....

Almost identical analysis for my CLV/CWS under 9 -117 and the NYY/TB game under 9

Added bet: NYY/TB under 9 -117

SO 6'9" OBERE is pitching AWESOME for Twinkies, with only one on base through 6 1/3 innings and 10K !!!!

....and they pull him with nobody on base!

WTF???? The new pitchers immediately allows the first 3 batters on base and th ebases are loaded with one out,  down 0 - 3 in score but threatening to tie or take the lead.....

Now they switch pitchers again.......this could get ugly again thanks to the Manager this time, if Funderburk doesn't save the day with bases loaded

FUnderburk got them out with just a sac fly run.....

Leaning to Mariners for a bounceback win over a team when the Mariners are better at the plate and should have a solid edge on the mound facing a weak lefty.

My TWINKIES!

Those 2 bets on them plus the series bet!

Well it looked like a good idea at the time.....damn.....but it's tied at 6 into the 9th, so for me, when it's not going according to plan, it's HEDGE BET TIME! LIVE BET: Marlins +100

M