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🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

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fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 14, 2024 - 6:43 PM ET #326

Oakland @Astros

Sears (L) /Blanco

Astros can hit lefties very well, and Sears is only mediocre.
The Astros have an edge at the plate but Oakland as an edge in bullpens.
BLANCO is VERY GOOD however and A's are not great against righties.
A's are starting another slump while Astros starting another good 10 game stretch.
I have Houston figured for a solid +1.1 run edge here, but those heavy odds give me pause fo another reason: BLANCO is riding the infamous 7-game hot streak without a bad outing.....yet.

PASS.

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 14, 2024 - 6:55 PM ET #327

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

BlewitJays @Orioles

Bassit/Bradish. Despite Jays very luckyass win in extra innings over the heavily favored Orioles yesterday, it's not by reason of being a better team. Same deal today. We start with Orioles having close to a one run edge at the plate PLUS a significant edge on the mound backed up by a much better pullpen. Typically the Jays are far better facing lefties than righties, let alone a GOOD one like Bradish. Only a .658 OPS v. righties.
Jays are expected to get back one of their best bats today, so this could be iffy.
Evenso, I make this one a solid +1.5 run edge for the O's to rebound.

BALTIMORE -160 *BB

Damn....they ppd this game to late July! I was gonna win this one for sure! an_smash

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 14, 2024 - 7:18 PM ET #328

Even without both Bryce Harper and Realmuto Phillies blanked the METS an_eek2

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 14, 2024 - 8:49 PM ET #329

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Marlins @ Tiggers

Weathers (L) /Olson
For all their flaws, the Marlins own a good batting avg v. righthanders. Not so good OPS though. But today they face a really good one in OLSON, who is backed up by a significantly better bullpen!....Tiggers start with a thin edge at the plate but expand that with a better starter and better BP.
Right now the Marlins (just 5 - 16 on the road) are the weakest team in MLB. Weaker even than the lowly Rockies and WhiteSox. paint_help They'll have a good game now and then, sure, but Tiggers look in great shape with the best chance for another win today as they strive to turn around a bad 10 game stretch with this homestand v a weakling...
I make Detroit with a +1.4 run edge today.

TIGGERS -169 *BB

BoL with your bets today, fellas! clover an_2drinks

Shite...

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 14, 2024 - 9:22 PM ET #330

Quote Originally Posted by yourpalhal:

clover

Thanks!....and BoL with your bets tonight! clover

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 14, 2024 - 10:23 PM ET #331

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Marlins @ Tiggers Weathers (L) /OlsonFor all their flaws, the Marlins own a good batting avg v. righthanders. Not so good OPS though. But today they face a really good one in OLSON, who is backed up by a significantly better bullpen!....Tiggers start with a thin edge at the plate but expand that with a better starter and better BP. Right now the Marlins (just 5 - 16 on the road) are the weakest team in MLB. Weaker even than the lowly Rockies and WhiteSox. They'll have a good game now and then, sure, but Tiggers look in great shape with the best chance for another win today as they strive to turn around a bad 10 game stretch with this homestand v a weakling...I make Detroit with a +1.4 run edge today. TIGGERS -169 *BB BoL with your bets today, fellas! Shite...

Another extra-inning game.....tied 4 - 4 into the bottom of 12th...

Ticks me off though. Earlier I did a big write up - along with all those other games - on how I was taking BoSox, but somehow it didn't get posted..... an_brick

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 14, 2024 - 10:29 PM ET #332

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Marlins @ Tiggers Weathers (L) /OlsonFor all their flaws, the Marlins own a good batting avg v. righthanders. Not so good OPS though. But today they face a really good one in OLSON, who is backed up by a significantly better bullpen!....Tiggers start with a thin edge at the plate but expand that with a better starter and better BP. Right now the Marlins (just 5 - 16 on the road) are the weakest team in MLB. Weaker even than the lowly Rockies and WhiteSox. They'll have a good game now and then, sure, but Tiggers look in great shape with the best chance for another win today as they strive to turn around a bad 10 game stretch with this homestand v a weakling...I make Detroit with a +1.4 run edge today. TIGGERS -169 *BB BoL with your bets today, fellas! Shite... Another extra-inning game.....tied 4 - 4 into the bottom of 12th... Ticks me off though. Earlier I did a big write up - along with all those other games - on how I was taking BoSox, but somehow it didn't get posted.....

....and sure enough, the Bosox just won it in the 12th......sigh....

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 14, 2024 - 10:40 PM ET #333

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Pirates @Brewers

Priester/Ross

Pirates upset the Brewers yesterday despite being outgunned and facing a tough opposing starter. Luck happens in baseball.
Brewers are the better team, they ouygun the Pirates at the plate by close to a full run avg, have the better starter, and an edge in BP. A 3.86 ERA might not look too bad to many but look at his 4 starts: 3 of them were bad outings, including the last one v. the wweakass Angels If Priester had a proven record as a GOOD pitcher I might expect a rebound performance. But he doesn't. Last year he had a 7.74 ERA and a dreadful 1.70 WHIP. The young guy needs more time and I dunno that he gets better facing these ticked off Brewers on a 2 game skid.
ROSS otoh, has put a wonky April behind him and pitched very well his last 2 (@Cubs; @KC) allowing only 11 on in 11 innings and just 4 earned runs. And as a righty, he faces a Pirates team with one of the WORST BA and OPS v righties. I expect he will do well again.
I make the Brewers with a solid +1.5 run edge here in a turn-around win.

BREWERS -150 *BB

WINNER!

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 9:00 AM ET #334

Mediocre day at the office Tuesday: 3 - 3 -1.28

My day hinged late on Mariners to hold their 1 - 0 lead behind Gilbert (who pitched well)

They lost.

Interesting finding the first two days this week (from my capping stats)

In games where there was a significant SP mismatch, the team with the better start went a paltry 3 - 7 on Monday, but 8 - 4 yesterday.

IOW, 11 - 11 for the teams with the significantly better starting pitcher,

....and of course the losses were HUGE because most were favs - some LARGE!

*Your mileage may vary in terms of how YOU assess the starting pitchers...

Fuse

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Joined: Mar, 2016

Posts: 84738

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 9:01 AM ET #335

GL today brother peace clover

Learn, be content and stay disciplined.

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 9:11 AM ET #336

The three WEAKEST teams in MLB are:

Marlins

Rockies

WhiteSox

Marlins were large dogs in both their games on the road v. a Detroit team over .500 - and managed a split!

WhiteSox managed a home split as a small dog each game v. Nats who were .500 last weekend

Rockies (4 - 16 on the road!!) were heavy dogs in both games at .500 San Diego - and WON BOTH! - despite facing a significantly better SP in both.

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 9:20 AM ET #337

This week,

Heavy FAVS who OPENED the day at -170 or higher,

went just 4 - 4 ....with some heavy juice losses! an_speechless

Yesterday the Padres were the heaviest fav on the board for the second consecutive day and lost both.

I got suckered in on Monday, but glad I backed off yesterday, even though on paper they held at least a +2.0 run edge in both games over the weakass Rockies...

Sometimes the wisest decisions we make in sports betting are not necessarily the teams we choose to bet on, but rather the teams we choose to PASS on...

Moose6836

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2006

Posts: 5704

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 9:35 AM ET #338

Twins bounce back today and tomorrow take series against Yankees/overtake Cleveland for division this weekend!

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 9:46 AM ET #339

By my capping stats,

home teams with the significantly BETTER run scoring production estimate

went just 2 - 4 so far this week.... most were large home favs....

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 9:57 AM ET #340

Heavy FAVS today, to which I will wisely back away from:

(won't even bother capping the matchup -- not worth the risks)

Tiggers

Padres

Phillies

Braves

Astros

And when I bet on the heavy dogs in such matchups, I lose...

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 10:14 AM ET #341

BlewitJays @Orioles

Similar matchup on the mound as Monday, which was tied at 2 - 2 after 9 innings.

Except for this game, Toronto will have their best hitter back in the lineup!

I still have Orioles with an edge but this is a coin-flipper in my opinion

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 10:26 AM ET #342

Nats/CWS ov 7 -118 *BB @pinnacle

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 11:07 AM ET #343

Cards/LAA ov 8 -115 *BB @pinnacle

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 12:24 PM ET #344

Quote Originally Posted by Fuse:

GL today brother

Thanks, FUSE! BoL with your bets today! clover an_cheers

insatiable

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Joined: Jul, 2007

Posts: 36896

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 12:27 PM ET #345

@fubah2

clover an_cheers

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 5:14 PM ET #346

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Nats/CWS ov 7 -118 *BB @pinnacle

With estimated NET PITCHING factor to be around net zero (ie, neither higher than averages nor lower than averages) I had the run production today est at 8.2 total runs. They combined for 9 runs yesterday with much better pitching anticipated.......... Final score: 2 - 0

BIG FAT LOSER an_beatup

Overs are only hitting 47.5% according to covers.com

fubah2

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Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 7:51 PM ET #347

HOME FAVS are only beating the runline at a clip of 38.3%

but winning su 57.2 %

fubah2

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Joined: Aug, 2012

Posts: 53375

Posted: May. 15, 2024 - 10:03 PM ET #348

Quote Originally Posted by Moose6836:

Twins bounce back today and tomorrow take series against Yankees/overtake Cleveland for division this weekend!

@Moose6836

I was hoping they might upset NYY with Lopez facing Stroman but the Yankees bullpen is damn good. Meanwhile Yankees are badly outhitting the Twinkies today...