🤢🥴💩_ Fubah's risky baseball bets _🥶😲🥵

Start of my season results so far: 

April 30:   3 - 5 - 1    -2.65u     (1 - 2 *BB)
May 01:    7 - 0        +7.64u     (4 - 0 *BB)
May 02:    1 - 0 - 1   +1.00u
May 03:    5 - 5         -1.16u     (4 - 3 *BB)
May 04:    5 - 7         -4.25u     (4 - 2 *BB)
May 05:  11 - 8         +6.72u    (4 - 4 *BB)
May 06:    2 - 3         -1.39u     (1 - 3 *BB)
May 07:    8 - 2 - 1   +4.70u     (5 - 2 *BB)
May 08:    3 - 2 - 1   +0.58u     (2 - 1 *BB)
May 09:    2 - 0        +2.00u     (1 - 0 *BB)
May 10:  13 - 8         +5.45u     (6 - 5 *BB)
May 11:

= 60 - 40 - 4   +18.64u     (32 - 22 *BB)

Although Marlins seem due for a win soon if not today, the Phillies lineup looks powerful today and I have them with a +1.3 run edge for the game after taking into account the starters and BPs...

PHILLIES -122 *BB (pinnacle)

and  Phil/MIA ov 7 -167 alt-total

NO guarantees of course! These could just as easily lose   but the edges and odds are in my favor so I'll play the odds

@fubah2

WARNING:  HOT STREAK alert!

The following STARTERS are riding tenuous 7-game HOT STREAKS

....which could end at anytime, usually soon!!!

This means 7 either GOOD or at worst a mediocre outing, but definitely WITHOUT getting roughed up yet

SKUBAL, Tiggers

Make no mistake, this dude and others I will identify in the future are GOOD starters - some of them exceptional. But probability says "consecutive streaks don't last long"...All GOOD pitchers will have an "off" day and get roughed up - sometimes mauled - before they resume their stellar pitching performances again.  It happens to the best of them.  CAN NOT be avoided.

When???  We can't know that for certain but my stats over many years indicate the time to start to worry is after they reach SEVEN (7) consecutive outings without a BAD one in that bunch (at any point in the season, not just from the start) Sure some streaks may continue beyond that by 2 or 3 more performances....it happens!  But for me, I don't need the stress that the bubble may burst that day.  There's 14 other games to look at.  I can simply skip those "HOT STREAK" dudes until *AFTER* their inevitable BAD outing beatdown, then resume looking at his starts after that!

PS.  Yesterday I identified 4..... they are all moving on to their 8th now, with JONES (Pirates) being a very close call...

just played hou/det un 1/2 1st inning...(now ya tell me....      just kidding... good luck today)

Thank you, and BoL with your bets today!

Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

@fubah2  Keep doing your "thing "..interesting read.

@Crusher13

Will do!....nice of you to stop by!

...and BoL with your bets today!

@PUSSYGALORE333

Oh, I see....Well you should still be ok in the early going like that, so chin up

I figure you win that one!

Thanks for stopping by!... and BoL on your others today!

  Edges at the plate today??

Here is my "adjusted" offensive edge in RPG each team has AT THE PLATE,

but these numbers DO NOT YET take into account today's opposing starters!....it's just the bats!!.....YOU will have to assess this edge against the starters each faces yourself....and then raise or lower the perceived edge, and look for value in the odds

Despite the edges at the plate, as we all know, it doesn't always go according to plan. There's no GUARANTEE any of these shown will win.

ONE-OFFS/bad-beats do happen frequently and can upset otherwise good calls, so bet wisely.

My capping stats show these as the more significant BATTING edges Saturday:

Phillies +2.0 run edge at the plate ....(not accounting for pitching yet!)

BREWERS +1.9 run edge at the plate....(not accounting for pitching yet!)

MARINERS +1.8 run edge at the plate....(not accounting for pitching yet!)

Dodgers +1.5 run edge at the plate....(not accounting for pitching yet!)

Yankees +0.8 run edge at the plate....(not accounting for pitching yet!)

Twinkiess +0.8 run edge at the plate....(not accounting for pitching yet!)

Nationals +0.6 run edge at the plate....(not accounting for pitching yet!)

Rangers +0.6 run edge at the plate....(not accounting for pitching yet!)

GADZOOKS!  Gausman!  This is getting "roughed up" - no kidding!  An otherwise better than average pitcher to be sure, poor guy is having a dreadful "off" day..... 12 men on base in just 3 innings!!!  ....and 7 runs.....

Mariners -210  *BB

Meanwhile the Phillies bats are silent.

And now the BlewitJays have tied it 

Destiny.

JAYS  -135

New starter, SKENES, (Pirates) the top overall pick in the draft

got roughed up in his first game.

Cubs got a HR , 3 runs, and put 8 on board in only 4 innings.

He fanned 7 but 8 on over 4 innings is BAD....

 L   LIVE BET: Twinkies -380
W   LIVE HEDGE BET after 5: JAYS +350
W   Tied at 8 LIVE BET: Destiny. Jays -135

Whatta fiasco that was, Twins!

But I managed to escape disaster:  2 - 1    +0.70 u

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333: just played hou/det un 1/2  1st inning...(now ya tell me....      just kidding... good luck today)  

@PUSSYGALORE333

Oh, I see....Well you should still be ok in the early going like that, so chin up I figure you win that one! Thanks for stopping by!... and BoL on your others today!

@PUSSYGALORE333

 I believe that's a WINNER!

Line is small enough I am looking to take them

It's PAYBACK time!...they'll be pissed and INTENSE!

Right now they're in shock....but they'll get over it and refocus.