That's fair I guess, although I don't think my analysis was that off. In regards to post 22 your wrong, Jorge's Instagram followers were under a million before that knee, shot to 1.5 million a month after that fight, hardcore fans knew him but he became a household name after that fight. I watched the Askren v. lawler fight 3 times he got lucky, from somehow surviving the first two minutes to the early stoppage, Lawler beats him 9/10 times and he did retire two fights after that. I've also made serious coin betting against Pettis the last couple years he's not an elite fighter and I'm not just looking at his record, they threw him cowboy and he barely snuck away with that win. I'm also well aware of the transitive property and how it's not entirely applicable to sports but after watching both Usman and Jorge fight maia it's fair to assess that Usman handled him much easier. I never once said Jorge was undeserving or a scrub for that matter, but people are talking like jorge will walk through Usman, 1 because Jorge is much more popular, and B because Usman is a boring fighter. Not to mention Jorge has to cut 22lbs in 4 days and was eating pizza today, probably just a joke but still. If you like Jorge in this fight I respect that as your a great MMA capper, however like I previously stated I think Usman wins.
UFC 251 (Usman vs Burns)
That's fair I guess, although I don't think my analysis was that off. In regards to post 22 your wrong, Jorge's Instagram followers were under a million before that knee, shot to 1.5 million a month after that fight, hardcore fans knew him but he became a household name after that fight. I watched the Askren v. lawler fight 3 times he got lucky, from somehow surviving the first two minutes to the early stoppage, Lawler beats him 9/10 times and he did retire two fights after that. I've also made serious coin betting against Pettis the last couple years he's not an elite fighter and I'm not just looking at his record, they threw him cowboy and he barely snuck away with that win. I'm also well aware of the transitive property and how it's not entirely applicable to sports but after watching both Usman and Jorge fight maia it's fair to assess that Usman handled him much easier. I never once said Jorge was undeserving or a scrub for that matter, but people are talking like jorge will walk through Usman, 1 because Jorge is much more popular, and B because Usman is a boring fighter. Not to mention Jorge has to cut 22lbs in 4 days and was eating pizza today, probably just a joke but still. If you like Jorge in this fight I respect that as your a great MMA capper, however like I previously stated I think Usman wins.
If you think Jorge is out of shape, you're just mistaken. He was Poirier's main training partner. I'm not worried about his shape. He said he took 1 bite of that pizza, which he probably didn't even. He's playing games with Usman. Usman knew he had to just go out and beat Burns, whatever way he can. I think Masvidal is in Usman's head, as evidence of Usman saying he knows he can stand with Masvidal, and I think Usman eventually gets caught with something devastating and lights go out. How does Usman get this done? He's going to wrestle Masvidal for 5 rounds? I just doubt that. Masvidal has never been finished in the UFC and he prop that it does not go to decision is -180, so if you think Usman will win this, why not just bet it goes to decision. Not really sure how Usman finishes this fight.
Quote Originally Posted by DialedCaper7: That's fair I guess, although I don't think my analysis was that off. In regards to post 22 your wrong, Jorge's Instagram followers were under a million before that knee, shot to 1.5 million a month after that fight, hardcore fans knew him but he became a household name after that fight. I watched the Askren v. lawler fight 3 times he got lucky, from somehow surviving the first two minutes to the early stoppage, Lawler beats him 9/10 times and he did retire two fights after that. I've also made serious coin betting against Pettis the last couple years he's not an elite fighter and I'm not just looking at his record, they threw him cowboy and he barely snuck away with that win. I'm also well aware of the transitive property and how it's not entirely applicable to sports but after watching both Usman and Jorge fight maia it's fair to assess that Usman handled him much easier. I never once said Jorge was undeserving or a scrub for that matter, but people are talking like jorge will walk through Usman, 1 because Jorge is much more popular, and B because Usman is a boring fighter. Not to mention Jorge has to cut 22lbs in 4 days and was eating pizza today, probably just a joke but still. If you like Jorge in this fight I respect that as your a great MMA capper, however like I previously stated I think Usman wins.If you think Jorge is out of shape, you're just mistaken. He was Poirier's main training partner. I'm not worried about his shape. He said he took 1 bite of that pizza, which he probably didn't even. He's playing games with Usman. Usman knew he had to just go out and beat Burns, whatever way he can. I think Masvidal is in Usman's head, as evidence of Usman saying he knows he can stand with Masvidal, and I think Usman eventually gets caught with something devastating and lights go out. How does Usman get this done? He's going to wrestle Masvidal for 5 rounds? I just doubt that. Masvidal has never been finished in the UFC and he prop that it does not go to decision is -180, so if you think Usman will win this, why not just bet it goes to decision. Not really sure how Usman finishes this fight.
I think the only way Usman wins this is a lot of clinch work against the fence and wrestling. I say that he does it for 5 rounds and wins by dec.
GL Papa 
Jorge Masvidal definetly has a chance to upset Usman in my opinion. The guy is gonna be in great shape I expect and is motivated like crazy to kill usman if has a chance. The guy lost fights in the past but he surely is fighting the best he has fought his whole career in the UFC and Usman wants to stand and bang with him it sounds like and that is a bad idea for him to do. If he stands and trades punches he will lose by ko, if he takes him down and controls the fight its a decision victory for Usman. I think he is a smart fighter and likely winner but if he decides to stand and throw punches with Masvidal I think Masvidal will tko him.
I dont think there is any way Usman plans to actually stand and bang with Jorge. It may sell PPVs and if he starts out the fight that way, Jorge may relax thinking the fight is going to be in his style.
Usman eventually has got to get the fight to the ground, I don't think clinching Jorge against the fence is all that safe, he would be in danger of a short distance shot. He wants and needs to be on top, grinding away and removing any danger from Jorge.
I like one of the props someone mentioned above, Jorge early KO hedged with over 3.5. That looks plausible both ways, which of course means Usman KO early or Jorge KO early in Round 3 once I put money down lol.
Like Rose, but dont like #s, that fight will likely be a props only fight. Yan, I feel good about his chances to finish this, am I wrong in thinking that the chances of a tko/ko would increase as guys get a bit tired, hurt, sloppy? No one knows how their camps and training were, it is a lot of travel and a weird situation.
The #s for ex Yan finishes in round 3, round 4 round 5 keep going up. It may be worth sprinkling a bit over,those instead of putting a full unit on 1 outcome. If I am seeing this wrong, please someone let me know what I am missing.
More as we get closer to the fights, I almost never bet on fights until day of, too much can happen.
Cheers,
Manowarfan1
I have a lot of those same props, especially on Masvidal.
What is your thinking on Zaleski? It should be a close fight, but I was leaning Salikhov. Are you throwing that Submission win in there just because the # is so good that if it hits, you have steak for dinner? What did I overlook on this fight?
Rose, you have me thinking again. I figured this one to go to a decision. If someone is ahead, they can just move around to get to the judges (of course, you never know what you will get there). So, with it being only 3 rounds, do they just go for it, hope their conditioning and training was better than the opponent? Rose probably had more resources available to her for things like distance/video training but in this day and age facetime or zoom will get it done. Damn, wasnt betting on Rose just because of the big -number, but wanted a couple of props. Her by TKO/KO and submission are both nice #s, as are the Round 2,3 #s. Dang, this could be a really good card.
Good luck all,
Manowarfan1
I have a lot of those same props, especially on Masvidal. What is your thinking on Zaleski? It should be a close fight, but I was leaning Salikhov. Are you throwing that Submission win in there just because the # is so good that if it hits, you have steak for dinner? What did I overlook on this fight? Rose, you have me thinking again. I figured this one to go to a decision. If someone is ahead, they can just move around to get to the judges (of course, you never know what you will get there). So, with it being only 3 rounds, do they just go for it, hope their conditioning and training was better than the opponent? Rose probably had more resources available to her for things like distance/video training but in this day and age facetime or zoom will get it done. Damn, wasnt betting on Rose just because of the big -number, but wanted a couple of props. Her by TKO/KO and submission are both nice #s, as are the Round 2,3 #s. Dang, this could be a really good card. Good luck all, Manowarfan1
I think Zaleski is just the better fighter all around and getting him + money is a no brainer. Salikhov has no ground game. If Zaleski takes him down, I think the fight is over and he can definitely hang on the feet with Salikhov. He's the bigger man and has fought much better competition and I think the + money is too good to pass up.
Rose is going to butcher Andrade. I think their styles match up perfectly for inside the distance fights. I think Rose butchers her enough to drop Andrade and either finish with strikes or sub her. The narrative out there is Rose will jab and move her way to a decision, but I just don't see it. Andrade gets hit way too much and was just finished in 42 seconds. Do I think it'll be 45 seconds? Most likely no, but I wouldn't want me $ anywhere near a decision for that fight.
I agree on Burns and a 6 week layoff, he was already pretty much on weight for this fight, and in fighting shape. Travel and weight cut for Guzman, could be a bit more extreme for him as,it has been a bit longer since he had to cut. At +200, it is worth a shot. I wonder how the whole strangeness of things will affect the card, especially 5 rounds. Nope, not Justin. My brother in Wwf went by Razor Ramon, then after he left for wcw he just went by his own name (scott Hall) so nobody could trademark it. Vince owned the trademark on Razor, doh! On Aldo fight, I just cant tell. I love having a high level pro at + money, but at some point he has to starting showing and feeling his age. Is this the time, under current circumstances nobody would blame him if he lost. Cheers, Manowarfan1
Wait, Razor Ramon is your brother?? like brother brother??? haha he was my idol when i was a little kid!
Wanna stop by and say BOL Papa keep up the good work. As for Razor Ramon I used see and talk to him on a monthly basis here in Orlando near Chuluota Fl. and see him as much as I see Shaquille O’Neal. The last time I spoke to him he was buying dip for a friend. He Is one nice guy and humble. Those were some awesome days seeing him in the ring!
Hot Forum Topics
