UFC 251 (Usman vs Burns)

+20.6* Last Card



Kamaru Usman (c 170lbs) vs Gilbert Burns

Burns +200 (*****)

DURINHO! AND NEW!

Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo

Aldo Wins Inside Distance +395 (****)


Aldo just went to war with Moraes for 3 rounds and the fight could have gone either way and there's no evidence that Yan is a better striker than Moraes.  Prior to that Moraes fight, although it was at 145lbs, Aldo lost to current champ Volkanovski by decision, but also knocked out Moicano and Jeremy Stephens right before that.  Neither of these guys truly deserve a title shot at 135, but here we are.  I think this is very clearly going to be a war on the feet and I favor the veteran with the reach who had gotten the best off the younger guy training years ago.  I don't see how this goes five rounds either way and will probably make a 2nd bet on the fight not getting to the 4th round.

To another profit 

Thanks papa imma buy back my bet I have a 2 team parlay petr yan moneyline and volcano ski money line

Never parlay two fighters.  

Hope so.  Doing a ton of research for this card.  

Would love to hear your reasoning on Burns as time permits. Thanks bud

A MUST READ before every UFC card. Papa sees things that I wouldn't even if I wasnt working 12 hour days. 

I know you love your dogs and your props and I tail on some,of them,to my benefit. As a matter of fact, I probably put more on prop nets now than on outright results. That's your fault Papa, and I and my account balance thank you.

I see so many people on Usman, and that was my initial gut feeling, but Burns at +200 is a lot of value. Is that your feeling here? There are a few fights here where I was a bit surprised to see my initial lean is a dog, better for me.

Can't wait to see all the props I know are coming. 

P.S. Love the handle. I dont know if Charles was playing Papa Shango when my brother was having a big run in WWF, or if he was Kama or Godfather, but he seemwd like a nice guy. I liked the Shango character although I don't think It was handled that well.

Cheers,

Manowarfan1 

Appreciate the words.  Is your brother Justin Credible?  (Man O War). If so, dude was the man in ECW.  I was a big wrestling fan growing up.  Loved Papa Shango.  I actually met Charles when I lived in Vegas when he was working at Cheetah's.  Such a nice dude.  Didn't tell him I stole his moniker though.  


Usman/Burns:

+200 means I need to think he has a better than 1/3 chance he wins the fight.  Burns was destroying himself getting down to 155.  He would lose his stamina and chin cutting so much weight.  He looks way better, stronger, and his cardio is great.  My only hang up is that it's only 6 weeks since Burns beat Woodley, but I'm not that worried since he's not cutting much weight.  On the other hand, Usman cuts crazy weight to get to 170.  I think with the added travel and the unknowns in Abu Dhabi, who knows how Usman's cut will go?  I can't see Usman turning this into a wrestling match.  He won't want to go to the mat with Burns, so this will be a striking match and I think Burns can strike with Usman and has the power to hurt Usman like he did Woodley early.  Could Usman grind this to a 5 round decision or finish Burns?  Sure, but I'm willing to make the bet that he doesn't getting +200.

I agree on Burns and a 6 week layoff, he was already pretty much on weight for this fight, and in fighting shape. Travel and weight cut for Guzman, could be a bit more extreme for him as,it has been a bit longer since he had to cut. At +200, it is worth a shot. I wonder how the whole strangeness of things will affect the card, especially 5 rounds. 

Nope, not Justin. My brother in Wwf went by Razor Ramon, then after he left for wcw he just went by his own name (scott Hall) so nobody could trademark it. Vince owned the trademark on Razor, doh!

On Aldo fight, I just cant tell. I love having a high level pro at + money, but at some point he has to starting showing and feeling his age. Is this the time, under current circumstances nobody would blame him if he lost. 

Cheers,

Manowarfan1

I have usman.  I think he wins via wrestling.  Burns is arguably the best bjj guy in mma but it’s 2020.  It’s extremely tough to get a sub from the bottom no matter who you are.  Usman is an enormous 170er and has cardio for days.  

Your brother is Scott Hall?  That's fuckingg awesome.  Razor Ramon was my favorite wrestler growing up.  He seems to be doing great these days.  Been following his tough road.  

I'm telling you, he will not wrestle Burns.  He will not play in Burns guard.  So, if that is how you think Usman will win, you should reassess your thoughts.  The bigger cage will also make it a lot harder for Burns to try to wrestle.  Usman will want to wrestle against the cage and I don't think Burns will let him.

I am so glad you mentioned the full size cage. I was getting used to the smaller, more action cage of the last few events from Vegas.

I usually wait until the last hours before an event to place my bets, now I have time to look at what I was thinking with a different eye.

Good luck all,

Manowarfan1

What a twist in plot...now really gotta listen to your feedback on the main event. Thank you advance, Papa!

Jorge beats a joke in ben askren and a washed-up nate diaz and people think he's the second coming. Usman will win 

Gonna be a good fight. Not sure why everyone’s so sold on Marty so much. He may grind on Jorge and wear him out especially with no camp but I can see a scenario where Marty has gotten way too confident with his striking and end up getting starched. Normal size cage too???????We’ll see. Good luck Papa

You forgot when he slept Darren Till in London.  

Askren is far from a joke.

Nate Diaz came off beating the shitt out of Anthony Pettis.  He is not washed up.

This idea that Masvidal is some bum, undeserving of this shot is absurd.

You're talking about a guy that's NEVER been finished in the UFC.  
Masvidal's last 5 wins have been finishes.  3 of his last 4 losses were split decision.  The lone unanimous was Wonderboy for 3 rounds.

Will Usman win this fight?  Maybe, but Masvidal will hurt Usman on the feet and I do not think Usman can take down Masvidal for 5 rounds.  He has spoken that he thinks he can stand with Masvidal.  Let's see it.

Not gonna act like I know ufc better than you, however, IMO Ben Askren was built up like some god for no reason, Jorge gained his recognition with that knee, but I think the praise for Askren was invalid. Askren got extremely lucky against Lawler then retired two fights later. Nate diaz coming off beating the shitt out of pettis, correct me if im wrong but who doesnt beat the shitt out of pettis? He's 5-9 in his last 14 fights. Not saying Jorge is a bum but he lost to Damian maia who usman dominated, and he lost to Iaquinta who wouldn't hold a candle to Usman.

Masvidal didnt just gain recognition from that one knee(even as sweet as it was to see ben get put to bed)

[image from unapproved source]

Pretend you saw a pic of him bustin Till in the face

Sorry, but there is so much wrong with all of this that I don't feel like responding to it.  Just go actually watch these fights you're talking about instead of reading results.  And doing MMA Math is pointless and meaningless.  Can't compare the Maia and Iaquinta fights to this upcoming one.  You seem like a good dude, but your analysis is just wrong.