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UFC 207, Including biggest wager of the year

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Posts: 61

PapaShango

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 29065

Posted: Dec. 29, 2016 - 1:50 PM ET #26

Rousey wins inside distance -125 (5 Units)

Rousey wins inside distance -115 (1 Unit)

Rousey wins by submission -105 (2 Units)

Rousey wins by submission +125 (1 Unit)

Rousey wins in round 1 +165 (1 Unit)

Cruz wins by 5 round decision +130 (2 Units)

Garbrandt wins by TKO/KO +245 (1 Unit)

Lineker +210 (2 Units)

Lineker by 3 round decision +475 (1 Unit)

Kim wins by 3 round decision +240 (1 Unit)

Magny/Hendricks Over 2.5 -190 (3 Units)

Magny by 3 round decision +180 (2 Units)

Magny wins by TKO/KO +530 (1 Unit)

Pyle/Garcia won't start round 3 -125 (1 Unit)

Oliveira/Means won't go 3 round distance -120 (1 Unit)

May have more...

Sir_Gritz

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2015

Posts: 381

Posted: Dec. 29, 2016 - 2:01 PM ET #27

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

I will probably make wagers on Cruz by decision and Cody by KO. In the Dillashaw/Lineker fight, I like how Lineker closes distance and he has the hardest punching power in the division. I think 3 rounds benefits Lineker dramatically. The Lineker fight vs Dodson was very telling of how Lineker can strike with extremely quick fighters and win rounds. I get the love for Dillashaw because many had him beat Cruz, but he matches up really well with Cruz, not so much Lineker. Dillashaw also matches up very well with Barao, which were his two most impressive wins. Besides Barao, I don't see any world beaters he defeated. Assuncao is past his prime, coming off injuries. Dillashaw chewed him up with revenge in that fight. I love the path Lineker has been on and believe getting over 2/1 is terrific value in that dight.

I figure since you have more units on Cruz by decision you're leaning more towards him and hedging with the Cody by KO?

I agree with you on Lineker benefiting from it being a 3 round fight especially due to his judge friendly style. Dillashaw isn't as quick as Dodson and Lineker constantly made Dodson feel his power while eating multiple head kicks.

Even if Lineker doesn't KO Dillashaw, he has enough power to steal a round by landing a few significant shots.

PapaShango

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 29065

Posted: Dec. 29, 2016 - 4:25 PM ET #28

Yeah, the mental warfare that Cruz has put on Cody all week could be debilitating. Cruz could knock out Cody and I'd be screwed, but I don't know how much Cruz will want to exchange in the pocket. I still have some faith Cody could KO Cruz, but definitely not counting on it as much as I believed earlier. The weigh-in tonight will be very dramatic. I wouldn't be surprised if Cody did something really stupid. His emotions have gotten the better of him recently. Cody could be very nervous tomorrow night.

Motherflickee

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 1257

Posted: Dec. 29, 2016 - 6:18 PM ET #29

Big line move, money flowing on Magny

DUNKMAN

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2002

Posts: 3362

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 1:41 AM ET #30

I seem to agree with you until I just saw a Rousey at the weigh-in.... she's terrified. She was never mentally prepared to take a whooping like she did. She outclassed so many opponents in a row and started believing her own press.... and I honestly don't think she's ever going to recover. If she can grab an arm and end it quickly, all her.. but if not, I can see her panicking and as soon as she gets hit a few times just coming unglued... just my thoughts... but I agree, if you like her that's a great value. Good luck either way

jdr016

Banned

Joined: Aug, 2006

Posts: 6591

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 9:26 AM ET #31

Quote Originally Posted by Motherflickee:

Big line move, money flowing on Magny

That and Hendricks missed weight. Plus, he gave a bizarre interview to the media where he came off as completely disinterested in fighting.

barneybeans

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9981

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 10:16 AM ET #32

Papa! I am all over Rousey and decided to check the forum and saw this. Very impressive indeed. I have not ready everything except your first 2 or 3 posts. I saw the line yesterday @ -$135 +$105 and thought, "whaaaaaaaaaaaaat?"

Then I started reading the press...

Rousey -$135 for 10 units.

Now that I know it opened at over -$300 I feel like I got a great deal.

The pen is mightier than the pigs

barneybeans

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9981

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 10:30 AM ET #33

So I think the betting public reading about Nunes the champ, how awesome and killer she is, and then Rousey being silent for over a year, her acting in a movie or two, all glamorous, on late night TV....

I think the betting public thinks Rousey is soft, wants to be an actress and do magazine covers, is silent for a year eating ice cream on the couch, footsie pajamas and having sleep overs with her besties.

But I think Rhonda has realized that the only way for her to get fame and $, magazine covers and continued endorsements is by fighting, not by being glamorous in movies and TV. She's no Jennifer Lawrence.

Everyone knows Nunes fizzles out end of the 2nd round. Maybe Rhonda has a Rope a Dope in mind?

I saw the U/O for the 5 rounds was 1½ U-$232 O+$202.

This would make Nunes supporters think that Nunes knock out Rousey or Rousey submits in the 1st round.

Either way the league needs Rousey on top for a few more years, it's great for the sport, Rousey needs to be on top, I don't know how she is working out but I smell an unintentional rope a dope being played by the press and the dope is the betting public!

So glad to see what I can only hope is sharp money driving the line up today - currently I see Rousey @ -$170

BOL to all

The pen is mightier than the pigs

barneybeans

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9981

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 10:44 AM ET #34

Rousey wins by submission -105 (2 Units)

Currently YouWager has that @ +$120

The pen is mightier than the pigs

barneybeans

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9981

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 11:16 AM ET #35

This is Amy Schumer, NOT Rhonda Rousey:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z6wLa30ne5E

The pen is mightier than the pigs

PapaShango

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 29065

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 3:22 PM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by DUNKMAN:

I seem to agree with you until I just saw a Rousey at the weigh-in.... she's terrified. She was never mentally prepared to take a whooping like she did. She outclassed so many opponents in a row and started believing her own press.... and I honestly don't think she's ever going to recover. If she can grab an arm and end it quickly, all her.. but if not, I can see her panicking and as soon as she gets hit a few times just coming unglued... just my thoughts... but I agree, if you like her that's a great value. Good luck either way

She is definitely not terrified. She is determined and focused if anything. She's been in huge fights. If anything, Nunes should be the one terrified.

PapaShango

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 29065

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 3:23 PM ET #37

barneybeans - you're on point. Hope you hit.

PapaShango

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 29065

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 3:33 PM ET #38

Notes on every fight...

Oliveira/Means - Oliveira should be the better fighter and if it turns into a wrestling match, I like his chances, but Means is a beast, so that's a stay away for me.

Price/Thatch - Don't think this fight gets out of the 1st. Two guys looking to KO each other quickly. Price the UFC newcomer, so def hesitant to put money on him, and Thatch needs this win very badly on a 3 fight losing streak.

Pyle/Garcia - Like Garcia, but can't justfiy laying -175 right now. Will be another fun one. If goes to decision, home town Pyle could get the benefit.

Vettori/Carlos Jr - No opinion on this fight. Not too familiar with either fighter. Stay away for me.

Magny/Hendricks - Hendricks has just looked awful pre and during weigh-in. Just don't think his head is in the game anymore and may retire if and when Magny beats him. Like Magny by decision.

Borg/Smolka - Smolka lost to Moreno his last fight and basically went into depression/drank a ton in the month post that fight. He looked awful at the weigh-in, could barely lift his arms. Borg did not make weight, but looked okay, almost as if he didn't try very hard to do so. Borg def with the advantage pre fight.

Kim/Saffiedine - Long layoff for Kim, but he is coming in seemingly very confident. I think he is the bigger fighter and smothers Saffiedine and gets a nice decision win.

Lineker/Dillashaw - Big line move in favor of Lineker. I love Lineker in this fight and the decision prop is amazing value. Lineker has been on a tear and just beat Dodson, who is even faster than Dillashaw. I think Dillashaw could almost be looking past Lineker because he already believes he's champion and wants that Cruz rematch.

Cruz/Garbrandt - Both fighters are crazy confident. I don't know how long this fight will last. Cody predicts 2nd round KO while Cruz thinks it could go to the 3rd-4th where he will finish it. A finish prop could be the way to go, but I'm sticking with Cruz by decision and Cody by TKO/KO. Will be great.

Nunes/Rousey - Rousey up to -175 from being around -140 for a few weeks. As I've stated, I love Ronda in this fight and believe she gets an early finish.

GL to everyone betting the fights. Should be a fun night.

Notes on every fight...

Oliveira/Means - Oliveira should be the better fighter and if it turns into a wrestling match, I like his chances, but Means is a beast, so that's a stay away for me.

Pyle/Garcia - Like Garcia, but can't justfiy laying -175 right now. Will be another fun one. If goes to decision, home town Pyle could get the benefit.

Vettori/Carlos Jr - No opinion on this fight. Not too familiar with either fighter. Stay away for me.

Magny/Hendricks - Hendricks has just looked awful pre and during weigh-in. Just don't think his head is in the game anymore and may retire if and when Magny beats him. Like Magny by decision.

Kim/Saffiedine - Long layoff for Kim, but he is coming in seemingly very confident. I think he is the bigger fighter and smothers Saffiedine and gets a nice decision win.

Nunes/Rousey - Rousey up to -175 from being around -140 for a few weeks. As I've stated, I love Ronda in this fight and believe she gets an early finish.

GL to everyone betting the fights. Should be a fun night.

royboymiami

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 5321

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 3:42 PM ET #39

idk why everyone thinks the public is on Nunes

The line knows the only way to get money on nunes is to make it +money

Today everyone is talking about the Rousey fight

"hey did you hear Rousey is fighting tonight?, , who???"

No one even knows who Nunes is outside of MMA frequent watchers. MY MOTHER knows who Rousey is but not Nunes...

Ronda was suchhhh a s hit talker when she was winning (acted really classless before the Holly fight)

now she disappears because she doesnt have the confidence to talk that sh it because she doesnt know if she has it in herself to win... if she were truely confident she would talk the talk like Mcgregor did in the lead up to diaz pt2.

I think this will be a good fight but Amanda is a tough person to put in front of Ronda after a longgg lay off (idont care how long she can train)

This will be the COMEBACK everyone expects but it will turn out to be Vegas last hoorah with Ronda.. just think about it, everyones loading up on Ronda and then boom she loses again and the jokes on you for the greed...

swanbomb

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 1855

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 7:49 PM ET #40

LETS GO RONDA

GL PS

straight_cash

Captain

Joined: Aug, 2015

Posts: 7479

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 7:59 PM ET #41

BOL Shango

BWS77

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 35351

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 8:12 PM ET #42

Let's win some

tonight Papa!

BWS77

Legend

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 35351

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 8:37 PM ET #43

Garcia has to get KO of the night

barneybeans

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 9981

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 8:44 PM ET #44

Quote Originally Posted by royboymiami:

idk why everyone thinks the public is on Nunes

The line knows the only way to get money on nunes is to make it +money

Today everyone is talking about the Rousey fight

"hey did you hear Rousey is fighting tonight?, , who???"

No one even knows who Nunes is outside of MMA frequent watchers. MY MOTHER knows who Rousey is but not Nunes...

Ronda was suchhhh a s hit talker when she was winning (acted really classless before the Holly fight)

I think this will be a good fight but Amanda is a tough person to put in front of Ronda after a longgg lay off (idont care how long she can train)

Speaking up to your soap box (you discovered Amanda Nunes, right?) The line opened Rousey -300 - yesterday morning it was Rousey -135.

Was that $165 swing on air?

If you're still unsire that most money up until your post was on Nunes... well? Think about it.

Every sportswriter, magazine, ESPN, Covers, Vegas Insider etc is on Nunes.

As is most of the money.

Earlier today $ came in on Rousey driving it up to -175 and now it is -165 - the other side has been taking back and the line seems set @ -$165.

Does this answer your question, "idk why everyone thinks the public is on Nunes?"

BOL

The pen is mightier than the pigs

Skanless1

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 5996

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 9:06 PM ET #45

agree that ronda takes this one.

cruz will be too much for garbrandt.. probably wins it late in 4th or by decision.

Skanless1

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 5996

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 9:34 PM ET #46

parlayed magny w/'bama.

Skanless1

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 5996

Posted: Dec. 30, 2016 - 10:01 PM ET #47

interesting decision in that magny fight.

Skanless1

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2009

Posts: 5996

Posted: Dec. 31, 2016 - 12:50 AM ET #48

holy crap ronda got killed!

PapaShango

Hall of Fame

Joined: Dec, 2010

Posts: 29065

Posted: Dec. 31, 2016 - 12:53 AM ET #49

I was dead wrong. That was terrifying. Sorry if anyone tailed that. Nunes completely pieced her up. Unreal.

TheBigOnion

Rookie

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 658

Posted: Dec. 31, 2016 - 12:55 AM ET #50

That wasn't a fight - that was manslaughter

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