Sorry, Scal, but you're too into the media narrative. You got a loser there. I've dug deep into this fight and regardless, you have terrible value on Nunes. Nunes is not some monster that you may think she is. The first thing you need to know about Nunes is she fades. She fades in just about every fight she's in.
Let's look at her last 5 UFC fights.
Nunes around +175 vs Cat Zingano.
Nunes won the 1st round, but then lost the 2nd, and was eventually TKOd in the 3rd. Faded considerably after the 1st round. Rousey took out Zingano in 14 seconds.
Nunes around -600 vs Baszier
Baszier was on a bad streak, basically done with the UFC. They gave Nunes this fight to get her back on track. Easy 1R TKO.
Nunes around +200 vs McMann
This was an impressive 1R sub, however McMann was coming off a loss to Tate. Good win for Nunes, but still not that impressive. Rousey took out McMann in 1 minute.
Nunes around Even vs Shevchenko
Nunes took the 1st, the 2nd was close, but again she faded late 2nd, and she got pieced up in the 3rd. Nunes won by Unanimous decision. If this was a 5 round fight, Shevchenko would have won easily.
Nunes around +120 vs Tate for Title
Tate went into this fight way too confident, did way too much press, and was not on her game/was just about done with UFC. It was impressive by Nunes, but let's not forget that Rousey made a better Tate tap twice. And Tate looked miserable a few weeks ago in her next fight/last fight in UFC. Tate also was getting destroyed by Holm before she got the 5R Sub.
Sorry, Scal, but you're too into the media narrative. You got a loser there. I've dug deep into this fight and regardless, you have terrible value on Nunes. Nunes is not some monster that you may think she is. The first thing you need to know about Nunes is she fades. She fades in just about every fight she's in.
Let's look at her last 5 UFC fights.
Nunes around +175 vs Cat Zingano.
Nunes won the 1st round, but then lost the 2nd, and was eventually TKOd in the 3rd. Faded considerably after the 1st round. Rousey took out Zingano in 14 seconds.
Nunes around -600 vs Baszier
Baszier was on a bad streak, basically done with the UFC. They gave Nunes this fight to get her back on track. Easy 1R TKO.
Nunes around +200 vs McMann
This was an impressive 1R sub, however McMann was coming off a loss to Tate. Good win for Nunes, but still not that impressive. Rousey took out McMann in 1 minute.
Nunes around Even vs Shevchenko
Nunes took the 1st, the 2nd was close, but again she faded late 2nd, and she got pieced up in the 3rd. Nunes won by Unanimous decision. If this was a 5 round fight, Shevchenko would have won easily.
Nunes around +120 vs Tate for Title
Tate went into this fight way too confident, did way too much press, and was not on her game/was just about done with UFC. It was impressive by Nunes, but let's not forget that Rousey made a better Tate tap twice. And Tate looked miserable a few weeks ago in her next fight/last fight in UFC. Tate also was getting destroyed by Holm before she got the 5R Sub.
The bottom line is, you are getting horrible value. Rousey opened at -320 and the media narratives had people drive this price all the way down. All the value is on Rousey right now. And you talk about the Holm fight. Well, let's talk about it. She took the fight way sooner than she should've because Dana White asked her to move up the fight, so she had a shorter camp than usual. The fight was also in Australia, and we can be honest and say Holly Holm was just a bad match-up for Rousey. Rousey did not have a good game plan and fought right into what Holm wanted. Nunes is certainly not near the match-up problem Holm is for Rousey.
Rousey's last several fight odds.
vs Holm ~ -1200
vs Correia ~ 1700
vs Zingano ~ -1000
vs Davis ~ -1200
vs McMann ~ -400
vs Tate ~ -700
vs Carmouche ~ -900
vs Kaufman ~ -900
vs Tate ~ -400
Thinking you are getting good value with Nunes at +135 is just wrong. All of the value is on Rousey. I cannot believe how much the public is driving this line down, but Rousey will be one of my biggest MMA bets in some time. Good luck, Scal. You will need it.
Rousey said she has had an amazing camp and weight is 0 issue, she is on a better pace for her weight cut than she has ever been on.
Look at this picture...She is a monster right now...
UFC knows how much of a better match-up this is for Rousey than Holm would've been. Did they want the Holm rematch for the $$$? Probably. But, now they have lucked into Nunes being champion and Ronda being able to take it off of her. They also made this other division for Holm because they probably don't want Holm near Ronda once Ronda wins the title back. They'll give Ronda the winner of Schevchenko/Pena and then go from there.
The bottom line is, you are getting horrible value. Rousey opened at -320 and the media narratives had people drive this price all the way down. All the value is on Rousey right now. And you talk about the Holm fight. Well, let's talk about it. She took the fight way sooner than she should've because Dana White asked her to move up the fight, so she had a shorter camp than usual. The fight was also in Australia, and we can be honest and say Holly Holm was just a bad match-up for Rousey. Rousey did not have a good game plan and fought right into what Holm wanted. Nunes is certainly not near the match-up problem Holm is for Rousey.
Rousey's last several fight odds.
vs Holm ~ -1200
vs Correia ~ 1700
vs Zingano ~ -1000
vs Davis ~ -1200
vs McMann ~ -400
vs Tate ~ -700
vs Carmouche ~ -900
vs Kaufman ~ -900
vs Tate ~ -400
Thinking you are getting good value with Nunes at +135 is just wrong. All of the value is on Rousey. I cannot believe how much the public is driving this line down, but Rousey will be one of my biggest MMA bets in some time. Good luck, Scal. You will need it.
Rousey said she has had an amazing camp and weight is 0 issue, she is on a better pace for her weight cut than she has ever been on.
Look at this picture...She is a monster right now...
UFC knows how much of a better match-up this is for Rousey than Holm would've been. Did they want the Holm rematch for the $$$? Probably. But, now they have lucked into Nunes being champion and Ronda being able to take it off of her. They also made this other division for Holm because they probably don't want Holm near Ronda once Ronda wins the title back. They'll give Ronda the winner of Schevchenko/Pena and then go from there.
I agree with you on the media narrative. Too many people are doubting Rousey and calling for the upset like it's a sure thing.
Nunes is a good fighter, but she doesn't have a long proven track record and she has looked bad in the UFC in her fights that went into the third round. So her cardio is a big question.
I'm leaning towards Rousey and the over myself.
I agree with you on the media narrative. Too many people are doubting Rousey and calling for the upset like it's a sure thing.
Nunes is a good fighter, but she doesn't have a long proven track record and she has looked bad in the UFC in her fights that went into the third round. So her cardio is a big question.
Sorry, Scal, but you're too into the media narrative. You got a loser there. I've dug deep into this fight and regardless, you have terrible value on Nunes. Nunes is not some monster that you may think she is. The first thing you need to know about Nunes is she fades. She fades in just about every fight she's in.
Let's look at her last 5 UFC fights.
Nunes around +175 vs Cat Zingano.
Nunes won the 1st round, but then lost the 2nd, and was eventually TKOd in the 3rd. Faded considerably after the 1st round. Rousey took out Zingano in 14 seconds.
Nunes around -600 vs Baszier
Baszier was on a bad streak, basically done with the UFC. They gave Nunes this fight to get her back on track. Easy 1R TKO.
Nunes around +200 vs McMann
This was an impressive 1R sub, however McMann was coming off a loss to Tate. Good win for Nunes, but still not that impressive. Rousey took out McMann in 1 minute.
Nunes around Even vs Shevchenko
Nunes took the 1st, the 2nd was close, but again she faded late 2nd, and she got pieced up in the 3rd. Nunes won by Unanimous decision. If this was a 5 round fight, Shevchenko would have won easily.
Nunes around +120 vs Tate for Title
Tate went into this fight way too confident, did way too much press, and was not on her game/was just about done with UFC. It was impressive by Nunes, but let's not forget that Rousey made a better Tate tap twice. And Tate looked miserable a few weeks ago in her next fight/last fight in UFC. Tate also was getting destroyed by Holm before she got the 5R Sub.
Good stuff.... don't even bother trying to talk sense into scal, once his mind is set nothing will ever change it.
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:
Sorry, Scal, but you're too into the media narrative. You got a loser there. I've dug deep into this fight and regardless, you have terrible value on Nunes. Nunes is not some monster that you may think she is. The first thing you need to know about Nunes is she fades. She fades in just about every fight she's in.
Let's look at her last 5 UFC fights.
Nunes around +175 vs Cat Zingano.
Nunes won the 1st round, but then lost the 2nd, and was eventually TKOd in the 3rd. Faded considerably after the 1st round. Rousey took out Zingano in 14 seconds.
Nunes around -600 vs Baszier
Baszier was on a bad streak, basically done with the UFC. They gave Nunes this fight to get her back on track. Easy 1R TKO.
Nunes around +200 vs McMann
This was an impressive 1R sub, however McMann was coming off a loss to Tate. Good win for Nunes, but still not that impressive. Rousey took out McMann in 1 minute.
Nunes around Even vs Shevchenko
Nunes took the 1st, the 2nd was close, but again she faded late 2nd, and she got pieced up in the 3rd. Nunes won by Unanimous decision. If this was a 5 round fight, Shevchenko would have won easily.
Nunes around +120 vs Tate for Title
Tate went into this fight way too confident, did way too much press, and was not on her game/was just about done with UFC. It was impressive by Nunes, but let's not forget that Rousey made a better Tate tap twice. And Tate looked miserable a few weeks ago in her next fight/last fight in UFC. Tate also was getting destroyed by Holm before she got the 5R Sub.
Good stuff.... don't even bother trying to talk sense into scal, once his mind is set nothing will ever change it.
I don't typically like to go against Scal and if we are on opposite sides, normally I just wouldn't play the game, but I'm on Rousey huge here as well.
BOL shango
I don't typically like to go against Scal and if we are on opposite sides, normally I just wouldn't play the game, but I'm on Rousey huge here as well.
Why do you like Garbrandt? Despite being undefeated, he's unproven against top competition and Cruz hasn't lost in over ten years.
I'm not saying you are right or wrong and I probably won't even have any money on the fight. I'm just curious of your angle.
There's a bunch of reasons I like Cody in this fight, which I will get to, but Cruz is not the same fighter he used to be. I think most that watched the Dillashaw fight would agree that Cruz did not win that fight and was gifted a split decision. And then he beat up on an aging/almost done with UFC, Faber, a fight in which he probably lost 2 rounds too. Before those two fights, he hadn't fought since Sept 2014, where he beat Mizugaki (not impressive). Before that fight, you need to go all the way back to Oct. 2011, where he beat a much much much smaller Demetrius. Cruz has just not been active or impressive in the last five years. He has never faced someone with the power of Garbrandt. Cruz is fast, but I don't think he's fast enough anymore to not get clipped at some point during this fight, and I don't believe he has the punching power anymore to knock out Cody in this fight. I love the +185 in this fight, but inside the distance is the way to go/by TKO/KO. Cruz won't be able to dance around this guy for five rounds and will pay for it. Could Cruz survive? Yeah, he could. But, I'm going to take my chances on a nice dog to become new Bantanmweight Champion.
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
Why do you like Garbrandt? Despite being undefeated, he's unproven against top competition and Cruz hasn't lost in over ten years.
I'm not saying you are right or wrong and I probably won't even have any money on the fight. I'm just curious of your angle.
There's a bunch of reasons I like Cody in this fight, which I will get to, but Cruz is not the same fighter he used to be. I think most that watched the Dillashaw fight would agree that Cruz did not win that fight and was gifted a split decision. And then he beat up on an aging/almost done with UFC, Faber, a fight in which he probably lost 2 rounds too. Before those two fights, he hadn't fought since Sept 2014, where he beat Mizugaki (not impressive). Before that fight, you need to go all the way back to Oct. 2011, where he beat a much much much smaller Demetrius. Cruz has just not been active or impressive in the last five years. He has never faced someone with the power of Garbrandt. Cruz is fast, but I don't think he's fast enough anymore to not get clipped at some point during this fight, and I don't believe he has the punching power anymore to knock out Cody in this fight. I love the +185 in this fight, but inside the distance is the way to go/by TKO/KO. Cruz won't be able to dance around this guy for five rounds and will pay for it. Could Cruz survive? Yeah, he could. But, I'm going to take my chances on a nice dog to become new Bantanmweight Champion.
I agree with you on the media narrative. Too many people are doubting Rousey and calling for the upset like it's a sure thing.
Nunes is a good fighter, but she doesn't have a long proven track record and she has looked bad in the UFC in her fights that went into the third round. So her cardio is a big question.
Bingo
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
I'm leaning towards Rousey and the over myself.
I agree with you on the media narrative. Too many people are doubting Rousey and calling for the upset like it's a sure thing.
Nunes is a good fighter, but she doesn't have a long proven track record and she has looked bad in the UFC in her fights that went into the third round. So her cardio is a big question.
I don't typically like to go against Scal and if we are on opposite sides, normally I just wouldn't play the game, but I'm on Rousey huge here as well.
BOL shango
I will never understand the "I don't like to go against..." approach. Nobody wins every bet. And outside of college football, Scalabrine has been par for the course this year anyway.
Quote Originally Posted by swanbomb:
I don't typically like to go against Scal and if we are on opposite sides, normally I just wouldn't play the game, but I'm on Rousey huge here as well.
BOL shango
I will never understand the "I don't like to go against..." approach. Nobody wins every bet. And outside of college football, Scalabrine has been par for the course this year anyway.
Relative to UFC 207, Cain Velasquez announced today that he will have back surgery shortly after the new year. He is still going to fight Werdum at UFC 207 next week. According to a report, he is reportedly experiencing severe pain if he has to stand up straight for more than 10 minutes. That part could be a smoke screen on his camp's part. But, interesting info nonetheless.
Relative to UFC 207, Cain Velasquez announced today that he will have back surgery shortly after the new year. He is still going to fight Werdum at UFC 207 next week. According to a report, he is reportedly experiencing severe pain if he has to stand up straight for more than 10 minutes. That part could be a smoke screen on his camp's part. But, interesting info nonetheless.
Relative to UFC 207, Cain Velasquez announced today that he will have back surgery shortly after the new year. He is still going to fight Werdum at UFC 207 next week. According to a report, he is reportedly experiencing severe pain if he has to stand up straight for more than 10 minutes. That part could be a smoke screen on his camp's part. But, interesting info nonetheless.
Wow. Great info. Werdum looked good vs Browne and may just be a bad match-up for Cain. Def staying away from Cain after that info. Major red flag. The over could still be nice, though...
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:
Relative to UFC 207, Cain Velasquez announced today that he will have back surgery shortly after the new year. He is still going to fight Werdum at UFC 207 next week. According to a report, he is reportedly experiencing severe pain if he has to stand up straight for more than 10 minutes. That part could be a smoke screen on his camp's part. But, interesting info nonetheless.
Wow. Great info. Werdum looked good vs Browne and may just be a bad match-up for Cain. Def staying away from Cain after that info. Major red flag. The over could still be nice, though...
I can't remember exactly, but didn't Faber even knock down Cruz in that last fight too, early on? Maybe I'm forgetting things correctly. I thought he did, though. Cruz then went on to recover fine and dominate the rest of the fight, but still. Garbrandt has good power and a finishing instinct that a lot of the other fighters Cruz has fought lately don't necessarily have. I think it's Garbrandt or nothing in terms of a bet (and agree that TKO/KO is the prop to take for extra $$).
As far as Rousey/Nunes go, I think there are way too many unanswered questions in regards to both fighters. Arguments can definitely be made for both sides. But still, you likely won't ever get a chance to get Rousey at these odds again. If she's anywhere CLOSE to her old form and motivated, that's significant value in and of itself right there. It's not like Nunes is a world-beater. Hell, none of the girls in that division outside of Rousey are. Why do you think the title has changed hands twice in two fights since then? None of those girls can be trusted to show up consistently and perform at the highest level like Ronda can. She wouldn't be coming back for this fight right now if she wasn't motivated or properly prepared. I think she wins this within 2 rounds.
I can't remember exactly, but didn't Faber even knock down Cruz in that last fight too, early on? Maybe I'm forgetting things correctly. I thought he did, though. Cruz then went on to recover fine and dominate the rest of the fight, but still. Garbrandt has good power and a finishing instinct that a lot of the other fighters Cruz has fought lately don't necessarily have. I think it's Garbrandt or nothing in terms of a bet (and agree that TKO/KO is the prop to take for extra $$).
As far as Rousey/Nunes go, I think there are way too many unanswered questions in regards to both fighters. Arguments can definitely be made for both sides. But still, you likely won't ever get a chance to get Rousey at these odds again. If she's anywhere CLOSE to her old form and motivated, that's significant value in and of itself right there. It's not like Nunes is a world-beater. Hell, none of the girls in that division outside of Rousey are. Why do you think the title has changed hands twice in two fights since then? None of those girls can be trusted to show up consistently and perform at the highest level like Ronda can. She wouldn't be coming back for this fight right now if she wasn't motivated or properly prepared. I think she wins this within 2 rounds.
Saw today that Nunes has had a head cold/been under the weather. Excuses coming in already. I wouldn't be surprised if she missed weight, but she still has a week until the fight, so we'll see. I hope she is okay and makes the weight, but just something to think about.
Saw today that Nunes has had a head cold/been under the weather. Excuses coming in already. I wouldn't be surprised if she missed weight, but she still has a week until the fight, so we'll see. I hope she is okay and makes the weight, but just something to think about.
I absolutely agree with you. I saw all the Nunes fights last night on UFC FightPass. Ronda will destroy her. Nunes is very vulnerable when hit. She cannot take punishment. Nunes's kicks take too long to develop and by that time, Ronda will tag her. Ronda is playing possum.....she already knows the outcome. This one will be over QUICK!
Please Do Not Bet on Nunes, players! You will lose.
I absolutely agree with you. I saw all the Nunes fights last night on UFC FightPass. Ronda will destroy her. Nunes is very vulnerable when hit. She cannot take punishment. Nunes's kicks take too long to develop and by that time, Ronda will tag her. Ronda is playing possum.....she already knows the outcome. This one will be over QUICK!
Please Do Not Bet on Nunes, players! You will lose.
There's a bunch of reasons I like Cody in this fight, which I will get to, but Cruz is not the same fighter he used to be. I think most that watched the Dillashaw fight would agree that Cruz did not win that fight and was gifted a split decision. And then he beat up on an aging/almost done with UFC, Faber, a fight in which he probably lost 2 rounds too. Before those two fights, he hadn't fought since Sept 2014, where he beat Mizugaki (not impressive). Before that fight, you need to go all the way back to Oct. 2011, where he beat a much much much smaller Demetrius. Cruz has just not been active or impressive in the last five years. He has never faced someone with the power of Garbrandt. Cruz is fast, but I don't think he's fast enough anymore to not get clipped at some point during this fight, and I don't believe he has the punching power anymore to knock out Cody in this fight. I love the +185 in this fight, but inside the distance is the way to go/by TKO/KO. Cruz won't be able to dance around this guy for five rounds and will pay for it. Could Cruz survive? Yeah, he could. But, I'm going to take my chances on a nice dog to become new Bantanmweight Champion.
Wouldn't you say that Dillashaw and Cruz are arguably the two best fighters in the division and so having a close fight with Dillashaw shouldn't be a knock on Cruz?
I may be wrong but didn't Dillashaw have a lot of success against Cruz in three 4th and 5th rounds by incorporating a lot of leg kicks, something Garbandt doesn't really do due to his heavy reliance on power?
As for the fight with Faber, the first round was close and Faber was swept in every round thereafter and it wasn't even close. Even looking at media scorecards, most had Cruz winning 50-45.
I'm with you on the fact that the Mizugaki win isn't very impressive, especially given the fact that Cody smashed him in quicker fashion.
I am also with you on the possible facade of Cruz being what he was prior to all of those injuries and due to the small amount of fights he's had in the past 5 years, we may not know who he really is. However, I feel as though backing Garbandt, you're taking a gamble and hoping that to be true and hoping Cody catches Cruz because if he doesn't he will be swinging at air for 5 rounds.
Same reason as to why I don't want to take Dillashaw is the same reason I don't want to take Cruz, fighting a guy with 1 punch KO power and hoping they escape a full fight without being KO'D.
I am an underdog guy so I am curious what your thoughts are to the above.
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:
There's a bunch of reasons I like Cody in this fight, which I will get to, but Cruz is not the same fighter he used to be. I think most that watched the Dillashaw fight would agree that Cruz did not win that fight and was gifted a split decision. And then he beat up on an aging/almost done with UFC, Faber, a fight in which he probably lost 2 rounds too. Before those two fights, he hadn't fought since Sept 2014, where he beat Mizugaki (not impressive). Before that fight, you need to go all the way back to Oct. 2011, where he beat a much much much smaller Demetrius. Cruz has just not been active or impressive in the last five years. He has never faced someone with the power of Garbrandt. Cruz is fast, but I don't think he's fast enough anymore to not get clipped at some point during this fight, and I don't believe he has the punching power anymore to knock out Cody in this fight. I love the +185 in this fight, but inside the distance is the way to go/by TKO/KO. Cruz won't be able to dance around this guy for five rounds and will pay for it. Could Cruz survive? Yeah, he could. But, I'm going to take my chances on a nice dog to become new Bantanmweight Champion.
Wouldn't you say that Dillashaw and Cruz are arguably the two best fighters in the division and so having a close fight with Dillashaw shouldn't be a knock on Cruz?
I may be wrong but didn't Dillashaw have a lot of success against Cruz in three 4th and 5th rounds by incorporating a lot of leg kicks, something Garbandt doesn't really do due to his heavy reliance on power?
As for the fight with Faber, the first round was close and Faber was swept in every round thereafter and it wasn't even close. Even looking at media scorecards, most had Cruz winning 50-45.
I'm with you on the fact that the Mizugaki win isn't very impressive, especially given the fact that Cody smashed him in quicker fashion.
I am also with you on the possible facade of Cruz being what he was prior to all of those injuries and due to the small amount of fights he's had in the past 5 years, we may not know who he really is. However, I feel as though backing Garbandt, you're taking a gamble and hoping that to be true and hoping Cody catches Cruz because if he doesn't he will be swinging at air for 5 rounds.
Same reason as to why I don't want to take Dillashaw is the same reason I don't want to take Cruz, fighting a guy with 1 punch KO power and hoping they escape a full fight without being KO'D.
I am an underdog guy so I am curious what your thoughts are to the above.
Wouldn't you say that Dillashaw and Cruz are arguably the two best fighters in the division and so having a close fight with Dillashaw shouldn't be a knock on Cruz?
I may be wrong but didn't Dillashaw have a lot of success against Cruz in three 4th and 5th rounds by incorporating a lot of leg kicks, something Garbandt doesn't really do due to his heavy reliance on power?
As for the fight with Faber, the first round was close and Faber was swept in every round thereafter and it wasn't even close. Even looking at media scorecards, most had Cruz winning 50-45.
I'm with you on the fact that the Mizugaki win isn't very impressive, especially given the fact that Cody smashed him in quicker fashion.
I am also with you on the possible facade of Cruz being what he was prior to all of those injuries and due to the small amount of fights he's had in the past 5 years, we may not know who he really is. However, I feel as though backing Garbandt, you're taking a gamble and hoping that to be true and hoping Cody catches Cruz because if he doesn't he will be swinging at air for 5 rounds.
Same reason as to why I don't want to take Dillashaw is the same reason I don't want to take Cruz, fighting a guy with 1 punch KO power and hoping they escape a full fight without being KO'D.
I am an underdog guy so I am curious what your thoughts are to the above.
I will probably make wagers on Cruz by decision and Cody by KO. In the Dillashaw/Lineker fight, I like how Lineker closes distance and he has the hardest punching power in the division. I think 3 rounds benefits Lineker dramatically. The Lineker fight vs Dodson was very telling of how Lineker can strike with extremely quick fighters and win rounds. I get the love for Dillashaw because many had him beat Cruz, but he matches up really well with Cruz, not so much Lineker. Dillashaw also matches up very well with Barao, which were his two most impressive wins. Besides Barao, I don't see any world beaters he defeated. Assuncao is past his prime, coming off injuries. Dillashaw chewed him up with revenge in that fight. I love the path Lineker has been on and believe getting over 2/1 is terrific value in that dight.
Quote Originally Posted by Sir_Gritz:
Wouldn't you say that Dillashaw and Cruz are arguably the two best fighters in the division and so having a close fight with Dillashaw shouldn't be a knock on Cruz?
I may be wrong but didn't Dillashaw have a lot of success against Cruz in three 4th and 5th rounds by incorporating a lot of leg kicks, something Garbandt doesn't really do due to his heavy reliance on power?
As for the fight with Faber, the first round was close and Faber was swept in every round thereafter and it wasn't even close. Even looking at media scorecards, most had Cruz winning 50-45.
I'm with you on the fact that the Mizugaki win isn't very impressive, especially given the fact that Cody smashed him in quicker fashion.
I am also with you on the possible facade of Cruz being what he was prior to all of those injuries and due to the small amount of fights he's had in the past 5 years, we may not know who he really is. However, I feel as though backing Garbandt, you're taking a gamble and hoping that to be true and hoping Cody catches Cruz because if he doesn't he will be swinging at air for 5 rounds.
Same reason as to why I don't want to take Dillashaw is the same reason I don't want to take Cruz, fighting a guy with 1 punch KO power and hoping they escape a full fight without being KO'D.
I am an underdog guy so I am curious what your thoughts are to the above.
I will probably make wagers on Cruz by decision and Cody by KO. In the Dillashaw/Lineker fight, I like how Lineker closes distance and he has the hardest punching power in the division. I think 3 rounds benefits Lineker dramatically. The Lineker fight vs Dodson was very telling of how Lineker can strike with extremely quick fighters and win rounds. I get the love for Dillashaw because many had him beat Cruz, but he matches up really well with Cruz, not so much Lineker. Dillashaw also matches up very well with Barao, which were his two most impressive wins. Besides Barao, I don't see any world beaters he defeated. Assuncao is past his prime, coming off injuries. Dillashaw chewed him up with revenge in that fight. I love the path Lineker has been on and believe getting over 2/1 is terrific value in that dight.
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