10/24 Volk Movsar Ufc 333 Concise picks

If you want wayyy more details and value charts go here: https://www.covers.com/forum/mixed-martial-arts-212/ufc-333-volk-v-movsar-1024-undefeated-system-views-104054317

Last week started doing separate thread for just the picks so its easy to follow

Three systems we're tracking... system1 is the original system that is still undefeated but has low volume on official picks so we made an experimental version of it last week that bets higher volume and the 2 experimental picks both won koslow +110 and faglier +105

System2 is a new system introduced last week that was hilariously bad at picking winners and testing it as a fade system... in backtesting it went 2-10 for over +5 units 3-2 when fading its favorites and 7-0 when fading its underdogs. It had 1 fade pick last week Buckley +110 which lost badly, but we pointed out before the fight that the systems Malott pick actually strongly resembled the fighters where following system actually won so maybe we should actually follow not fade in this case. Also showed that the system only went 3-2 when fading favorites so it may easily go 3-3 fading its favorites may not have any value, its fading its 0-7 underdogs where it really has value. And indeed it is now 3-3 after the Malott fade play on Buckley lost. Three variants of system2: original, balanced, max profit... balanced got nearly 7 units profit and max profit got nearly 9 units in backtesting on the same 5 cards the original was tested on

System3 had 70% winrate in backtesting with good volume and reasonable lines (not just heavy favorites) but needs to be proven on new unseen events... not good last week but maybe just a bad card

Picks of each system in next post...

System1 (undefeated on both officials 5-0 and experimentals 2-0):

Finally has another official play after 3 weeks off lol...

Official play: Metabolism Dvalishvili +145 over Petr Yan

Two near misses for official plays: Grant Dawson -125 and Volkov -120

Experimental plays: malkoun +147, rowston +102, merab +138

System2: 

Original picks: Dawson -122, Magomedov -122, Kavanagh -105

Balanced variant picks: follows all 3 original picks plus adds Murzakanov -225

Max profit variant picks: follows all balanced picks plus adds Steele -160, Pico -117, Volkov-122

Rowston, Gugnon, Temirov are the 3 warning sign fighters these are the ones that resemble Mike Malott the most last week where maybe they should be followed not faded

System3:

Official picks: Cam Rowston +102, Noah Gugnon +135, Ramazan Temirov -115, Petr Yan -163

Near misses: Reyes +180 strong near miss, Pico -117 moderate near miss

Amazing synchronicity picked all of the 3 fighters as official picks that we warned about in system2 that how they resemble Malott last week indicates perhaps system2 should follow those 3 not fade them

That's all this week folks... Hopefully all systems dominate WE SHALL SEE

Super competitive fights everywhere this card so literally no result will surprise me

Oh wait I forgot to add with system1 I developed a titan system alongside it that aims to win almost every play but focuses on heavy (but not too heavy) favorites. Has only had 2 picks in 6-7 weeks

Titan play: Yakhyaev -425

It's only former pick was Brito -400 who obliterated Gigachikadze so good sign...