Posted:
#26
I've been on covers almost 10 years and seen many of your kind come and go...
Why do people always talk about "Vegas" as if....
Posted:
#29
I think you guys are way over analyzing this. The books set lines to get close to equal action and rake in the juice. Why would they do it any other way? It would be stupid. Maybe they set a bad line and take a stand on a game or 2 but there is no such thing as a trap line, one of the biggest myths in sports betting.
Maybe a line looks too good (so called square) to a bunch of $20 bettors and the same line may look good (so called sharp) to a big bettor who will bet a big amount that covers what a bunch of $20 joes are betting on the other side. The books know well in advance what the schucks and big bettors will be betting on a game and set the lines accordingly to get close to equal action. It's that simple.
Maybe a line looks too good (so called square) to a bunch of $20 bettors and the same line may look good (so called sharp) to a big bettor who will bet a big amount that covers what a bunch of $20 joes are betting on the other side. The books know well in advance what the schucks and big bettors will be betting on a game and set the lines accordingly to get close to equal action. It's that simple.
Posted:
#30
Quote Originally Posted by nc1capper:
just my .02 but folks lovin talkin vegas but it gives one the sense of being part of the 'inner circle"- headed out sunday am on a nonstop southwest flight from RDU and starting to get pumped
just my .02 but folks lovin talkin vegas but it gives one the sense of being part of the 'inner circle"- headed out sunday am on a nonstop southwest flight from RDU and starting to get pumped
I like Michelle Malkin also, she used to live 15 mins from me before moving to Colorado. I saw her a few times at a popular restaurant here called houstons.
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I think you guys are way over analyzing this. The books set lines to get close to equal action and rake in the juice. Why would they do it any other way? It would be stupid. Maybe they set a bad line and take a stand on a game or 2 but there is no such thing as a trap line, one of the biggest myths in sports betting.
Maybe a line looks too good (so called square) to a bunch of $20 bettors and the same line may look good (so called sharp) to a big bettor who will bet a big amount that covers what a bunch of $20 joes are betting on the other side. The books know well in advance what the schucks and big bettors will be betting on a game and set the lines accordingly to get close to equal action. It's that simple.
I think you guys are way over analyzing this. The books set lines to get close to equal action and rake in the juice. Why would they do it any other way? It would be stupid. Maybe they set a bad line and take a stand on a game or 2 but there is no such thing as a trap line, one of the biggest myths in sports betting.
Maybe a line looks too good (so called square) to a bunch of $20 bettors and the same line may look good (so called sharp) to a big bettor who will bet a big amount that covers what a bunch of $20 joes are betting on the other side. The books know well in advance what the schucks and big bettors will be betting on a game and set the lines accordingly to get close to equal action. It's that simple.
They dont want to just make juice, they want to crush all the dumbases and clean them out for their money. They will take their lumps when they have to.
If a fix goes dowm its not the casinos all plotting together, its one person or group looking for an opportunity and exploiting it. But that shit usually goes in one direction. Sports betting is an us vs them thing, vegas, the offshore books, and your local are all on the same team. The reason they can take their lumps when they have to is all the fucking morons who line thier pockets. And they are happy to lose occasionally to those morons because they will get it back, they dont like getting taken for big by smart money.
They will use every trick in the book to throw people off. If a line moves from -3 to -5 more people are going to take the favorite than the dog these days. Hence reverse line movement, and that has nothing to do with fixing games.
And if your going to fix a game you do it so the dumbass public gets fucked not hte books. That shit doesnt go down a lot though just sometime in certain situations people will betaking advantage of opportunities to make money. And it wont be the books who initiate this although they do benefit from games that are fixed the casinos are very very very removed from this.
But dont think they do every trick in the book to fuck the public.
OK St-Washington State this year opened at 19 and moved to 17. One of my dumbass friends from school made Wassou his biggest play of the first weekend because he was sure it was fixed. Fucking moron. Thats how they protect themselves.
It wasnt the Vegas books who paid Ricky Dobbs to fumble twice on the 1 yard line in the MD Navy game on Sunday before NFL when there was nothing else on. It was someone who wanted to make money and knew they wouldnt get caught because they would be going against the public. "Vegas" doesnt fix games.
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Maybe I'm misunderstanding this post but if you think the offshore books are setting their lines off of the Vegas hotels then you are seriously misinformed. They may open lines earlier (it's actually not that hard to get within range of where lines will open) but if a Vegas casino has had a line -7 for an hour and Pinnacle comes out and opens -7.5 that line in Vegas will go to -7.5 faster than greased lightning and it is rarely if ever the other way around.
I would put the Las Vegas Hiltons lines up vs any book in the world and win.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding this post but if you think the offshore books are setting their lines off of the Vegas hotels then you are seriously misinformed. They may open lines earlier (it's actually not that hard to get within range of where lines will open) but if a Vegas casino has had a line -7 for an hour and Pinnacle comes out and opens -7.5 that line in Vegas will go to -7.5 faster than greased lightning and it is rarely if ever the other way around.
Posted:
#34
I work in the industry and have only met/known 5 people in this town who make a living from sports betting....and I am not referring to those employed in the industry....and I am not referring to the touts and services that sell their plays. These 5 men sell nothing.
The "chaos" in this thread is a good reason why so few make so much.
Similar to the commodities market, the manipulation and the movement of the "prices," is what makes these men their money.How well a company performs is irrelevant to them..HOW THE PUBLIC PERCEIVES THE COMPANY'S PERFORMANCE is what is important.
Translate that last paragraph to the lines/juice movements that you see...especially during football season (where the books will increase their limits and invite more money over the counters)....and you can see how money, in the long run, is made by sports betting.
The line, itself, is not important to these men; the public's reaction to the line...and movement...is what is important. How the line is manipulated by these men is what causes concern to the sportsbooks; the public does not bother the sportsbooks at all. As was pointed out, over the long run, the public will lose all their money.
I have not read one posting here about LVSC...why is that? Does anyone here understand their influence...both here and offshore? Does anyone understand the impact of LVSC being purchased over a year ago by Cantor Gaming?
I am not quite certain why (or in what forum) this thread was started. Nor am I certain what made for this debate. However, what I am certain about is that 99.9% of those that gamble on sports are clueless as to the business of sportsbetting...both as it pertains to the sportsbook industry (which accounts for less than 2% of a casino's income) and as it pertains to those that make a serious living from betting.
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by VegasGourmet:
I work in the industry and have only met/known 5 people in this town who make a living from sports betting....and I am not referring to those employed in the industry....and I am not referring to the touts and services that sell their plays. These 5 men sell nothing.
The "chaos" in this thread is a good reason why so few make so much.
Similar to the commodities market, the manipulation and the movement of the "prices," is what makes these men their money.How well a company performs is irrelevant to them..HOW THE PUBLIC PERCEIVES THE COMPANY'S PERFORMANCE is what is important.
Translate that last paragraph to the lines/juice movements that you see...especially during football season (where the books will increase their limits and invite more money over the counters)....and you can see how money, in the long run, is made by sports betting.
The line, itself, is not important to these men; the public's reaction to the line...and movement...is what is important. How the line is manipulated by these men is what causes concern to the sportsbooks; the public does not bother the sportsbooks at all. As was pointed out, over the long run, the public will lose all their money.
I have not read one posting here about LVSC...why is that? Does anyone here understand their influence...both here and offshore? Does anyone understand the impact of LVSC being purchased over a year ago by Cantor Gaming?
I am not quite certain why (or in what forum) this thread was started. Nor am I certain what made for this debate. However, what I am certain about is that 99.9% of those that gamble on sports are clueless as to the business of sportsbetting...both as it pertains to the sportsbook industry (which accounts for less than 2% of a casino's income) and as it pertains to those that make a serious living from betting.
Im kinda with you but not fully. But by your logic these people must only bet MLs and never spreads on football because if they bet spreads and line movement was all that important tehy would be relying on hitting middles a very large amount of the time and paying juice when that does not happen.
Now I know if you know about hte line movements and can manipulate them and consitantly get both ends at better prices (1 team at -140 the other at +150) you can't possibly lose. I understand that, Im just having a hard time relating it to bets against the spread because you are going to be paying a lot of juice for the times you dont hit the middle (although all you will lose is juice).
Posted:
#36
WestHam...
Let me use one individual as THE EXAMPLE...
He is a well-known businessman out here and uses numerous people (employees and hi-profile acquaintances) to place his bets. Because football is a week-long betting process, he is capable of placing early bets to move the line and influence the public's betting, and then...closer to gametime, move in and make a series of bets against the initial line movement...which is where he wanted to be in the first place.
He relies on his own set of lines, looks for games that can be influenced, moves the early lines, then steps in and hammers the line. Because of the limited schedule and advance lines, he is also capable of doing this with college basketball.
It's not about hitting a middle....It's about, to use the stock analogy, it's about manipulating the marketplace to achieve a false level/price, then taking advantage of the public's perception and buying up the stock at a price that is way below real value.
Remember, he just has to cash 60% of his bets to make a seriously nice living.....
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by VegasGourmet:
Because they are a flailing company who seem pretty insignificant these days. Can you post their client list? Because if BM, Pinny, 5dimes, M aren't on it I really dont see why anyone would pay for their service when they are going to follow and move on air pretty much.
I work in the industry and have only met/known 5 people in this town who make a living from sports betting....and I am not referring to those employed in the industry....and I am not referring to the touts and services that sell their plays. These 5 men sell nothing.
The "chaos" in this thread is a good reason why so few make so much.
Similar to the commodities market, the manipulation and the movement of the "prices," is what makes these men their money.How well a company performs is irrelevant to them..HOW THE PUBLIC PERCEIVES THE COMPANY'S PERFORMANCE is what is important.
Translate that last paragraph to the lines/juice movements that you see...especially during football season (where the books will increase their limits and invite more money over the counters)....and you can see how money, in the long run, is made by sports betting.
The line, itself, is not important to these men; the public's reaction to the line...and movement...is what is important. How the line is manipulated by these men is what causes concern to the sportsbooks; the public does not bother the sportsbooks at all. As was pointed out, over the long run, the public will lose all their money.
I have not read one posting here about LVSC...why is that? Does anyone here understand their influence...both here and offshore? Does anyone understand the impact of LVSC being purchased over a year ago by Cantor Gaming?
I am not quite certain why (or in what forum) this thread was started. Nor am I certain what made for this debate. However, what I am certain about is that 99.9% of those that gamble on sports are clueless as to the business of sportsbetting...both as it pertains to the sportsbook industry (which accounts for less than 2% of a casino's income) and as it pertains to those that make a serious living from betting.
Their send out this week on Houston/Oakland is 5 and 47....actual opening line was 3 and 43......and there are multiple games every week like that so what is their significance? They seem to be just another opinion that doesn't carry much weight...15 years ago yeah but today no.
Posted:
#39
Maxx...
Read into my question.....Why did Cantor Gaming purchase LVSC before they even ran one sportsbook?....They are now poised to become even more of a force on the Strip and, with their ingame betting technology, assume a dominant role with lines and movement.
The "send out," such as it is...does have less meaning; but is that on purpose? Just a thought.
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