Unless the news is shocking, the moves seems to be a fade, so since 10 is kind of baked in, I think the move is probably a fade.
It ticks me off a bit, I didnt see how what Turkey did was a good thing at all, yet they moved risk up because of it..had I gone with my gut it would have netted 100 pips on the drop..but MANY times I dont get it and they can run it against you for a long time until it moves in the direction it should.
I've noticed almost a fade into the news..
Unless the news is shocking, the moves seems to be a fade, so since 10 is kind of baked in, I think the move is probably a fade.
It ticks me off a bit, I didnt see how what Turkey did was a good thing at all, yet they moved risk up because of it..had I gone with my gut it would have netted 100 pips on the drop..but MANY times I dont get it and they can run it against you for a long time until it moves in the direction it should.
Reason I ask is that the taper news has come and gone.. The market already reacted to it hours ago. If you are looking to trade that news , you are better of just closing your eyes and press buy
or sell.
Dont get me wrong , I am not trying to insult you , but the forex markets react, moves swiftly , and then moves swiftly again. Dont get all caught up on one news event .. If you didnt catch the scenario last night for some nice profits, then it becomes a sit and wait .. The USD/JPY bottomed out , just like I said , failed 3 bar coil, started a nice 145 pip down trend.. Now that it is in a trend, its done.Not tradeable, until there might be a start of a new trend .
forget all the ema crosses and fib levels . Thats retail trader crap. Screen time is what makes a trader. The market will repeat itself over and over, like a bad movie.. If I did not tell you excactly what scenerio will happen last night, then call me stupid. It just takes time.. I wish I had someone telling me about 3 bar coils when I started. A 3 bar coil is one of the strongest set ups.
Easy trading advice. If the pair is not around the 50 ema I would look somewhere else to trade. Its the 50 that will start a trend, and I should say the 50 ema on the 15 min chart..
Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:
This is an easy one to trade.
Taper at 10 Billion or above = Positive USD
No taper or less than 10 billion = Negative USD
(long shot), increse taper = Super Negative USD
hey buddy what are you trading? USD/JPY
Reason I ask is that the taper news has come and gone.. The market already reacted to it hours ago. If you are looking to trade that news , you are better of just closing your eyes and press buy
or sell.
Dont get me wrong , I am not trying to insult you , but the forex markets react, moves swiftly , and then moves swiftly again. Dont get all caught up on one news event .. If you didnt catch the scenario last night for some nice profits, then it becomes a sit and wait .. The USD/JPY bottomed out , just like I said , failed 3 bar coil, started a nice 145 pip down trend.. Now that it is in a trend, its done.Not tradeable, until there might be a start of a new trend .
forget all the ema crosses and fib levels . Thats retail trader crap. Screen time is what makes a trader. The market will repeat itself over and over, like a bad movie.. If I did not tell you excactly what scenerio will happen last night, then call me stupid. It just takes time.. I wish I had someone telling me about 3 bar coils when I started. A 3 bar coil is one of the strongest set ups.
Easy trading advice. If the pair is not around the 50 ema I would look somewhere else to trade. Its the 50 that will start a trend, and I should say the 50 ema on the 15 min chart..
Very good insight and I agree with you, I dont look at technical indicators much at all, it for sure is a backward looking retail approach..technical indicators can stretch and be wrong for a LONG LONG time, I dont use them much outside moving averages and maybe longer term extremes..
I would take it a step further than you though..yesterday you mentioned the 3 bar coil..well it worked this time, but to me the reason it worked was not due to the indicator but because of the news and market conditions.
I would take feel and experience as the best indicators..patience and solid money management. I think why most people fail is a lack of patience, lack of money management and a lack of knowing what you are trading.
Today the USD moved to me because the stock market is a bit down, the Turkey news really is risk off..to me it is a huge red flag saying they are desperate, and the market usually feasts off desperation..so I would expect more pain for the EM, which means risk off and the Yen should be firm (which I have no idea why the bloated Yen is some safe haven and risk off????)..
Knoxpoker,
Very good insight and I agree with you, I dont look at technical indicators much at all, it for sure is a backward looking retail approach..technical indicators can stretch and be wrong for a LONG LONG time, I dont use them much outside moving averages and maybe longer term extremes..
I would take it a step further than you though..yesterday you mentioned the 3 bar coil..well it worked this time, but to me the reason it worked was not due to the indicator but because of the news and market conditions.
I would take feel and experience as the best indicators..patience and solid money management. I think why most people fail is a lack of patience, lack of money management and a lack of knowing what you are trading.
Today the USD moved to me because the stock market is a bit down, the Turkey news really is risk off..to me it is a huge red flag saying they are desperate, and the market usually feasts off desperation..so I would expect more pain for the EM, which means risk off and the Yen should be firm (which I have no idea why the bloated Yen is some safe haven and risk off????)..
You are right indicators are for the birds. RSI CCI all that garbage. I just use the 50 ema as a starting point. If the pair is at or around it ,it will not be in a definable trend. I want to catch pairs that are looking to range, or start a new trend. And most of the time I only stay in for such a short time. I watch fundamentals , but when the chart tells you to short and the fudamentals tell you the same thing, you can get a big reward. It fell 124 pips , I only got 38 of that move , and your are very right the news helped that pair drop of the table. And I do expect a small retracment and USD/JPY to fall even more the next 2 weeks.
Inflated is an understatement, When USD/JPY went past 100.00 I said that was the top, I have not traded that pair in forever , until I started to see it was finally correcting. So knowing what direction the pair is going for the long haul , I am looking to pick it apart for small scalps .
You are right indicators are for the birds. RSI CCI all that garbage. I just use the 50 ema as a starting point. If the pair is at or around it ,it will not be in a definable trend. I want to catch pairs that are looking to range, or start a new trend. And most of the time I only stay in for such a short time. I watch fundamentals , but when the chart tells you to short and the fudamentals tell you the same thing, you can get a big reward. It fell 124 pips , I only got 38 of that move , and your are very right the news helped that pair drop of the table. And I do expect a small retracment and USD/JPY to fall even more the next 2 weeks.
Inflated is an understatement, When USD/JPY went past 100.00 I said that was the top, I have not traded that pair in forever , until I started to see it was finally correcting. So knowing what direction the pair is going for the long haul , I am looking to pick it apart for small scalps .
There were a lot of factors that could have moved the market today. -If the Fed cut less than 10B -If it was not unanimous -forward guidance etc.
these things were not baked in. We just happened to get the most non-eventful of all releases. Everything happened the way it was planned for by the market, so there is little movement, I am still long @ 102.04
I see lots of buys around 101.90/ 101.80
I'm giving it 24 hrs to break above the 102.30 ceiling that has been forming, or go below 101.80
There were a lot of factors that could have moved the market today. -If the Fed cut less than 10B -If it was not unanimous -forward guidance etc.
these things were not baked in. We just happened to get the most non-eventful of all releases. Everything happened the way it was planned for by the market, so there is little movement, I am still long @ 102.04
I see lots of buys around 101.90/ 101.80
I'm giving it 24 hrs to break above the 102.30 ceiling that has been forming, or go below 101.80
I think it spends more time north of 100 this quarter. Probably this year.
I think what Abe is doing will have a mute effect with regards to inflation, the same reason the FED and their actions had a muted effect.
Just blindly increasing money supply and buying risk assets does not equate to circulating the money and creating inflation..it didnt happen here and I dont think it happens there..
Japan is even more of a saver nation than we are..so you can float all the Yen you want, if it is not being lent, spent and circulated it will just park as it has here and the effect will be zippo.
All these central banks are trying to force inflation and in the larger countries it just isnt working..the banks are not lending, they are leverage risk buying, making profits off the central banks and financial markets..
The FED and Bank of Japan are really not trying to create inflation, if they really wanted inflation it would not be done in this manner...
Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:
I am not sure it is inflated, per say, when Shinzo Abe is talking about increasing "stimulus" etc, to fight deflation and spark inflation.
I think it spends more time north of 100 this quarter. Probably this year.
I think what Abe is doing will have a mute effect with regards to inflation, the same reason the FED and their actions had a muted effect.
Just blindly increasing money supply and buying risk assets does not equate to circulating the money and creating inflation..it didnt happen here and I dont think it happens there..
Japan is even more of a saver nation than we are..so you can float all the Yen you want, if it is not being lent, spent and circulated it will just park as it has here and the effect will be zippo.
All these central banks are trying to force inflation and in the larger countries it just isnt working..the banks are not lending, they are leverage risk buying, making profits off the central banks and financial markets..
The FED and Bank of Japan are really not trying to create inflation, if they really wanted inflation it would not be done in this manner...
Rick long at 102.04 ok .. I shorted at 102.340 up 20 just waiting for a touch of 102.00 then its in Gods hands from there. My limit is it 102.00 will have a tough time breaking that round number , or just flutter around that number for a bit.
Rick long at 102.04 ok .. I shorted at 102.340 up 20 just waiting for a touch of 102.00 then its in Gods hands from there. My limit is it 102.00 will have a tough time breaking that round number , or just flutter around that number for a bit.
out @ 102.167 plus 14.6 pips .. from the look on the hourly it does look better and better for a long soon. But I am waiting to see if it can break 102.00 or lower before i can confirm a long. If you are in for the long haul , it looks as if this pair can goto 102.950 but that will take days.
out @ 102.167 plus 14.6 pips .. from the look on the hourly it does look better and better for a long soon. But I am waiting to see if it can break 102.00 or lower before i can confirm a long. If you are in for the long haul , it looks as if this pair can goto 102.950 but that will take days.
not much going on tonight. just ranging big time. It is trading near the 50 ema so at sometime it has to take a direction. And I am sure it has to break 102.00 before going to atleast challenge the highs again. I would really like to see a break of the lows, a sharp move to the upside to suck in all the retail traders going long, then another large down move hitting all the buy stops along the way to start another long down trend of 60 pips or more. Thats what I am going to be looking for..
not much going on tonight. just ranging big time. It is trading near the 50 ema so at sometime it has to take a direction. And I am sure it has to break 102.00 before going to atleast challenge the highs again. I would really like to see a break of the lows, a sharp move to the upside to suck in all the retail traders going long, then another large down move hitting all the buy stops along the way to start another long down trend of 60 pips or more. Thats what I am going to be looking for..
I think what Abe is doing will have a mute effect with regards to inflation, the same reason the FED and their actions had a muted effect.
Just blindly increasing money supply and buying risk assets does not equate to circulating the money and creating inflation..it didnt happen here and I dont think it happens there..
Japan is even more of a saver nation than we are..so you can float all the Yen you want, if it is not being lent, spent and circulated it will just park as it has here and the effect will be zippo.
All these central banks are trying to force inflation and in the larger countries it just isnt working..the banks are not lending, they are leverage risk buying, making profits off the central banks and financial markets..
The FED and Bank of Japan are really not trying to create inflation, if they really wanted inflation it would not be done in this manner...
There are a lot of things in motion in Japan, Increasing wages, increasing consumer spending, etc, less savings. The days of a nation of savers is over. Abe has declared war on savers. They will get the idea (and I think they already have). Especially with his new consumption tax
This guy is a lunatic when it comes to inflation by any means necessary.
I believe he gets what he wants. You can fade him. I made a killing (in relative terms) believing he would do what he wanted to do last year.
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
I think what Abe is doing will have a mute effect with regards to inflation, the same reason the FED and their actions had a muted effect.
Just blindly increasing money supply and buying risk assets does not equate to circulating the money and creating inflation..it didnt happen here and I dont think it happens there..
Japan is even more of a saver nation than we are..so you can float all the Yen you want, if it is not being lent, spent and circulated it will just park as it has here and the effect will be zippo.
All these central banks are trying to force inflation and in the larger countries it just isnt working..the banks are not lending, they are leverage risk buying, making profits off the central banks and financial markets..
The FED and Bank of Japan are really not trying to create inflation, if they really wanted inflation it would not be done in this manner...
There are a lot of things in motion in Japan, Increasing wages, increasing consumer spending, etc, less savings. The days of a nation of savers is over. Abe has declared war on savers. They will get the idea (and I think they already have). Especially with his new consumption tax
opened AUD/USD trade @ 10:56 awful entry had to sweat out 13 pips right after I hit the buy button. But it looks like it wants to run to todays high. got in long @ 87.111 might be able to grab 20 quick pips ...
opened AUD/USD trade @ 10:56 awful entry had to sweat out 13 pips right after I hit the buy button. But it looks like it wants to run to todays high. got in long @ 87.111 might be able to grab 20 quick pips ...
I think most of his targets for inflation missed in year 1, no?
I dont see how you can attack savers like you are suggesting. Citizens have been net savers for centuries..I dont think it will do what he wants.
If what you are saying was true, the US/Yen would be to 110 by now..
The USD is actually firming decently, I am not sure why it is relatively weak vs the Euro and Pound..history shows that moving in and out of economic cycles seems to happen here first..so the US has been first to cut rates and first to give the impression rates will go up, yet the currencies are not reflecting that.
I am not impressed with the risk action today...the move up was marginal and it just seems pressured..trading ranges and a downward bias from a trading perspective..
rick,
I think most of his targets for inflation missed in year 1, no?
I dont see how you can attack savers like you are suggesting. Citizens have been net savers for centuries..I dont think it will do what he wants.
If what you are saying was true, the US/Yen would be to 110 by now..
The USD is actually firming decently, I am not sure why it is relatively weak vs the Euro and Pound..history shows that moving in and out of economic cycles seems to happen here first..so the US has been first to cut rates and first to give the impression rates will go up, yet the currencies are not reflecting that.
I am not impressed with the risk action today...the move up was marginal and it just seems pressured..trading ranges and a downward bias from a trading perspective..
I dont see anything there but Abe inflating the currency to spur inflation..the FED did the same thing, it did not work.
My contention now as it was before is you cannot just increase the money supply and expect a resulting inflation..
Inflation only comes if money is lent, circulated and spent..if not then no ammt of currency inflation will generate GDP inflation.
So the part of in 2015 or 2016 or whatever, it doesnt mean anything..they can plan on quadrupling cap gains taxes and other consumptions, but if the money is not circulating then the net effect will be minimal.
Our FED is scrapping its policy because the outcome was not generated..they only gave banks the ability to lever and corporations the opportunity to reflate their balance sheets..none of this trickled down to generate inflation.
I think Japan will be even less inclined to spend than we are..if they get capital gains from real estate (like here) a marginal ammt will creep through as it did here, but there will not be a money multiplier event until the currency is lent, spent and taxed...
rick,
I read the article..
I dont see anything there but Abe inflating the currency to spur inflation..the FED did the same thing, it did not work.
My contention now as it was before is you cannot just increase the money supply and expect a resulting inflation..
Inflation only comes if money is lent, circulated and spent..if not then no ammt of currency inflation will generate GDP inflation.
So the part of in 2015 or 2016 or whatever, it doesnt mean anything..they can plan on quadrupling cap gains taxes and other consumptions, but if the money is not circulating then the net effect will be minimal.
Our FED is scrapping its policy because the outcome was not generated..they only gave banks the ability to lever and corporations the opportunity to reflate their balance sheets..none of this trickled down to generate inflation.
I think Japan will be even less inclined to spend than we are..if they get capital gains from real estate (like here) a marginal ammt will creep through as it did here, but there will not be a money multiplier event until the currency is lent, spent and taxed...
hey Rick 102.580 held My eyes will open at 102.866. Might have a bounce there. You should be good for another 30 pips from now till the NY close..
Picked up 16 pips while out running around..On the AUD/USD
How was that call on the bounce. @ 102.866 bounced @ 102.890
I am the best trader you will see on this site ..I know TRUE support / resistence levels, the levels banks look at ... not pivot points and all that nonsense.
Quote Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:
hey Rick 102.580 held My eyes will open at 102.866. Might have a bounce there. You should be good for another 30 pips from now till the NY close..
Picked up 16 pips while out running around..On the AUD/USD
How was that call on the bounce. @ 102.866 bounced @ 102.890
I am the best trader you will see on this site ..I know TRUE support / resistence levels, the levels banks look at ... not pivot points and all that nonsense.
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