Short USD/JPY entry at 102.530 looking to ride this to down to 102.250 stop @ 102.671 this has range or down move written all over it .. I cant see this breaking 102.600 on the upside .If it does it could be a stop out candle and move lower or I was just straight up wrong.
Short USD/JPY entry at 102.530 looking to ride this to down to 102.250 stop @ 102.671 this has range or down move written all over it .. I cant see this breaking 102.600 on the upside .If it does it could be a stop out candle and move lower or I was just straight up wrong.
hopefully it sets as failed 3 bar coil on the hourly . It might challenge 3/4 of the long bearish 10:00 hourly candle that broke the 8 ema..I have 3 emas at my back on the 15 minute and 2 on the hourly ..lets see if they can hold price down. moved stop up to 20 pips total ..102.741 stop
hopefully it sets as failed 3 bar coil on the hourly . It might challenge 3/4 of the long bearish 10:00 hourly candle that broke the 8 ema..I have 3 emas at my back on the 15 minute and 2 on the hourly ..lets see if they can hold price down. moved stop up to 20 pips total ..102.741 stop
I dont know what platform you use but price tested the top of the 10:00 candle.. The entry was fine , but you were right I should have put the stop just above 102.810 .Also looked as if it tested the 50 ema on the hourly.. i will catch it again tonight. I am sure it will show its true colors soon.. I also should have waited for the 12 0 clock candle to close on the hourly for a better set up..
I cant tell if its a trend change to the upside , or consolidation then another drop to the downside.. On the daily it might want to test that 100 ema. I can tell you this , after looking at the daily , there is no way I can go long on this pair.
Just went long AUD/USD @ 87.440 divergence on the 15 min chart all retail traders went short @ 87.481 trend is up , I am looking for the retail trader to get there clock cleaned in the next 3 hours .. once all shorts get stopped out at 87.570 it will climb another 20 pips..
I dont know what platform you use but price tested the top of the 10:00 candle.. The entry was fine , but you were right I should have put the stop just above 102.810 .Also looked as if it tested the 50 ema on the hourly.. i will catch it again tonight. I am sure it will show its true colors soon.. I also should have waited for the 12 0 clock candle to close on the hourly for a better set up..
I cant tell if its a trend change to the upside , or consolidation then another drop to the downside.. On the daily it might want to test that 100 ema. I can tell you this , after looking at the daily , there is no way I can go long on this pair.
Just went long AUD/USD @ 87.440 divergence on the 15 min chart all retail traders went short @ 87.481 trend is up , I am looking for the retail trader to get there clock cleaned in the next 3 hours .. once all shorts get stopped out at 87.570 it will climb another 20 pips..
What drives the Aussie is rate talk and China..I do think it will be lucky to see .95 again unless massive inflation comes into the global picture.
I wasnt criticizing your entry, only that your stop was too tight..especially with what seems to be volatility returning after a long long absence..you gotta adjust the stops and give them more room if you use them.
I think the Aussie fair value is in the 70's vs the USD..as the FED keeps tightening the dollar will strengthen against one dimensional currencies like the AUD
I dont know about the Aussie..
What drives the Aussie is rate talk and China..I do think it will be lucky to see .95 again unless massive inflation comes into the global picture.
I wasnt criticizing your entry, only that your stop was too tight..especially with what seems to be volatility returning after a long long absence..you gotta adjust the stops and give them more room if you use them.
I think the Aussie fair value is in the 70's vs the USD..as the FED keeps tightening the dollar will strengthen against one dimensional currencies like the AUD
What drives the Aussie is rate talk and China..I do think it will be lucky to see .95 again unless massive inflation comes into the global picture.
I wasnt criticizing your entry, only that your stop was too tight..especially with what seems to be volatility returning after a long long absence..you gotta adjust the stops and give them more room if you use them.
I think the Aussie fair value is in the 70's vs the USD..as the FED keeps tightening the dollar will strengthen against one dimensional currencies like ther AUD
I hear you .. I trade technicals, chart formations, and I look for arreas where the retail trader will get hammered. The Central Bank is a beast in the forex markets, if you trade like everyone else, you will loose your shirt..
The AUD/USD trade worked out nice. Closed out for 19 pips. Some soft news came out about 2 hours ago. Was on the positive end of that to get back my 20 pips from my earlier trade..
All I trade at night in the Asian session is the AUD dollar. And USD/JPY I scalp and run 20 -30 pips trades . I trade small time frames 15 , 1 hour, and daily for some sort of direction, and I always trade around the 50 ema , i figure the bulls of the bears are going to take over for the short term around that EMA.
Looks to me with all the pins the big boys are selling on the way up. Usally that means a big drop coming..
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
I dont know about the Aussie..
What drives the Aussie is rate talk and China..I do think it will be lucky to see .95 again unless massive inflation comes into the global picture.
I wasnt criticizing your entry, only that your stop was too tight..especially with what seems to be volatility returning after a long long absence..you gotta adjust the stops and give them more room if you use them.
I think the Aussie fair value is in the 70's vs the USD..as the FED keeps tightening the dollar will strengthen against one dimensional currencies like ther AUD
I hear you .. I trade technicals, chart formations, and I look for arreas where the retail trader will get hammered. The Central Bank is a beast in the forex markets, if you trade like everyone else, you will loose your shirt..
The AUD/USD trade worked out nice. Closed out for 19 pips. Some soft news came out about 2 hours ago. Was on the positive end of that to get back my 20 pips from my earlier trade..
All I trade at night in the Asian session is the AUD dollar. And USD/JPY I scalp and run 20 -30 pips trades . I trade small time frames 15 , 1 hour, and daily for some sort of direction, and I always trade around the 50 ema , i figure the bulls of the bears are going to take over for the short term around that EMA.
Looks to me with all the pins the big boys are selling on the way up. Usally that means a big drop coming..
Rick are you going long on USD/JPY?? If a failed 3 bar coil appears by 5 oclock NY trading time , I am looking far a good spot to go short.
The pair made a strong breakout move from a bull flag formation on the 15 min at 1:15 ran all the way up to 103.255 and gave all its gains back @ 5:15 to the NY open. I have seen this a million times . I really would like to see a down turn tonight and go into the session tommorow and have this pair at least touch 101.376.
From what I see right now . If it goes up to 103.080 I will start looking for signals for a reversal. That area is the 100 ema on the hourly, it will pick up all the retail traders there and allow the little guys to ride this down to the 102.240. For a quick 20 pip scalp. If I dont see a signal I wont trade it . I will sit tight and watch
When I say "they" I mean the big banks. This is my plan ,let this run to the end of the session, see if we can break the JAN 24th high, then the start of the Asian session wait to see if it runs again if it runs 20 -30 pips at the start of the session, I will 100 percent look to short sometime tonight. On the 15 min chart , it looks like there is not enough exhaustion just yet to the up side. My eyes will be wide open if we can get near 103.230- 103.240 again, but I truly think this up trend is bull*garbage. This pair has a lot more down side to it. good luck
Rick are you going long on USD/JPY?? If a failed 3 bar coil appears by 5 oclock NY trading time , I am looking far a good spot to go short.
The pair made a strong breakout move from a bull flag formation on the 15 min at 1:15 ran all the way up to 103.255 and gave all its gains back @ 5:15 to the NY open. I have seen this a million times . I really would like to see a down turn tonight and go into the session tommorow and have this pair at least touch 101.376.
From what I see right now . If it goes up to 103.080 I will start looking for signals for a reversal. That area is the 100 ema on the hourly, it will pick up all the retail traders there and allow the little guys to ride this down to the 102.240. For a quick 20 pip scalp. If I dont see a signal I wont trade it . I will sit tight and watch
When I say "they" I mean the big banks. This is my plan ,let this run to the end of the session, see if we can break the JAN 24th high, then the start of the Asian session wait to see if it runs again if it runs 20 -30 pips at the start of the session, I will 100 percent look to short sometime tonight. On the 15 min chart , it looks like there is not enough exhaustion just yet to the up side. My eyes will be wide open if we can get near 103.230- 103.240 again, but I truly think this up trend is bull*garbage. This pair has a lot more down side to it. good luck
I agree with you, for the most part. I am not sure what a "3 bar coil" is. Maybe you could explain that.
I think that tomorrow is going to be a risk event driven day. If yellen does not go through with the taper (like in Sept.) there could be some serious movement.
I think that the movement for the next 24 hrs is going to be slow and USD positive, as people get out of their recent short positions before close today, and going into tomorrow.
I agree with you, for the most part. I am not sure what a "3 bar coil" is. Maybe you could explain that.
I think that tomorrow is going to be a risk event driven day. If yellen does not go through with the taper (like in Sept.) there could be some serious movement.
I think that the movement for the next 24 hrs is going to be slow and USD positive, as people get out of their recent short positions before close today, and going into tomorrow.
A 3 bar coil is a long bullish or bearish candle followed by 2 inside bars that do not break the high of the low of the bullish or bearish candle. I dont just trade that formation but seeing it enough it can tell me that once it breaks the top or the bottom of that coil, it can produce a long run. Look at the daily and you can see it right now on USD/JPY the long bearish candle for the 24th of Jan is the First candle and the 2 smaller up candles is forming the coil.
I can tell you this , the 15 min chart of USD/JPY this little uptrend after the down trend that happend this morning is all retail driven. If you look at the 15 min from 11 am till now , you can see all the pins on tops of the candles, they meaning the banks, are ready to drop this again tonight. Smart money always sells on the way up to hide there position. Why do they do that??? Becuase they can cover their orders , rather than just doing a "one click all trade". I have 5 years of screen time and I have seen it all. I do not trade like a retail trader , I do not trade using indicaters, I look at whats in front of me and fiqure out areas where retail traders will take a bath. There is no way to learn it just have screens set up of the majors and watch the movement , you can only love forex to trade it , if you are half a*s you will get creamed. I dont love it like I did 5 years ago but I have learned enough where I can trade by just looking at a chart and see if there is a scenerio I can trade on , just like the one above for USD/JPY. Despite what anyone tells you on this site of anywhere else , you can hit 6 out of 10 trades of better , I had 2 trade last month run for over 250 pips. I very rarely trade that way, I am a scalper , but I am trying to let my scalps run longer. I had a AUD/USD trade last night for 20 pips, if I let it run I would have been able to grab 50 more, but I am so set in my ways , and I know it works. I hate to wake up in the morning and see my trade go in the other direction. And I HATE trailing stops.
A 3 bar coil is a long bullish or bearish candle followed by 2 inside bars that do not break the high of the low of the bullish or bearish candle. I dont just trade that formation but seeing it enough it can tell me that once it breaks the top or the bottom of that coil, it can produce a long run. Look at the daily and you can see it right now on USD/JPY the long bearish candle for the 24th of Jan is the First candle and the 2 smaller up candles is forming the coil.
I can tell you this , the 15 min chart of USD/JPY this little uptrend after the down trend that happend this morning is all retail driven. If you look at the 15 min from 11 am till now , you can see all the pins on tops of the candles, they meaning the banks, are ready to drop this again tonight. Smart money always sells on the way up to hide there position. Why do they do that??? Becuase they can cover their orders , rather than just doing a "one click all trade". I have 5 years of screen time and I have seen it all. I do not trade like a retail trader , I do not trade using indicaters, I look at whats in front of me and fiqure out areas where retail traders will take a bath. There is no way to learn it just have screens set up of the majors and watch the movement , you can only love forex to trade it , if you are half a*s you will get creamed. I dont love it like I did 5 years ago but I have learned enough where I can trade by just looking at a chart and see if there is a scenerio I can trade on , just like the one above for USD/JPY. Despite what anyone tells you on this site of anywhere else , you can hit 6 out of 10 trades of better , I had 2 trade last month run for over 250 pips. I very rarely trade that way, I am a scalper , but I am trying to let my scalps run longer. I had a AUD/USD trade last night for 20 pips, if I let it run I would have been able to grab 50 more, but I am so set in my ways , and I know it works. I hate to wake up in the morning and see my trade go in the other direction. And I HATE trailing stops.
If they taper 10 Billion, it will be seriously Bullish for the USD. A lot of analysts think that the 10 billion has already been "baked in", I do not think so. I think after getting burned on the Sept. FOMC there is a short memory of the fiasco. I think the low volume today is indicating that people are staying away, holding off or pulling back their shorts in anticipation of a taper.
That is what makes a lower than 10 billion dollar tapering absolutely devastating for the USD. It would mean an instant slide in most crosses. Here are the minutes from September's FOMC. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20130918.htm
That being said. If you are going to enter a short today, and carry through tomorrow. Take into account that 72 out of 77 Economists surveyed by the WSJ believe that there will be a 10 billion dollar taper announced tomorrow. Which will be bullish for the USD, and most likely instantly stop you out of any position you have.
On the other hand.
If you have some sort of conviction that there will be no taper, which is the equivalent of a +990 bet (long shot), you will be paid accordingly.
If they taper 10 Billion, it will be seriously Bullish for the USD. A lot of analysts think that the 10 billion has already been "baked in", I do not think so. I think after getting burned on the Sept. FOMC there is a short memory of the fiasco. I think the low volume today is indicating that people are staying away, holding off or pulling back their shorts in anticipation of a taper.
That is what makes a lower than 10 billion dollar tapering absolutely devastating for the USD. It would mean an instant slide in most crosses. Here are the minutes from September's FOMC. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20130918.htm
That being said. If you are going to enter a short today, and carry through tomorrow. Take into account that 72 out of 77 Economists surveyed by the WSJ believe that there will be a 10 billion dollar taper announced tomorrow. Which will be bullish for the USD, and most likely instantly stop you out of any position you have.
On the other hand.
If you have some sort of conviction that there will be no taper, which is the equivalent of a +990 bet (long shot), you will be paid accordingly.
I hear you RICK. I am might hold my position for about and hour or so. Once I get my 20 pips I am out. I would never hold during a news event of that nature. I had a trade last night , and before I entered I saw there was a soft news event for the AUD. I have watched the reaction of all these news events and how they move the market. I knew the AUD event would not move it much 30 pips of so.. The Fed minutes can and will produce a 30 pip stop out candle alone, and that happens in seconds. I never trade the news , I wait and see how the pair reacts to it and then might not trade that pair for a day or 2. I might make 1-2 trades a day. If I make a winning trade for my 1st trade of the day I am done. I cant sit all day and wait for set-ups like I did before. 100 pips a week is fine with me. I might have a week where i make 40 pips . Its all fine with me , I am not looking to become a Warren Buffett. Trading takes alot of time, always at the computer, i am trying to get a room full of traders together , and day trade, but Knoxville , TN is not the best place for that. The people down here couldnt count the 3 teeth they have in their mouth let alone trade. Even the people that I know that have money down here are not driven by money, they have a very different attitude, its almost a lazyness the carry around. I grew up in Queens NY , people there will do anything for money. The south is very different.
I hear you RICK. I am might hold my position for about and hour or so. Once I get my 20 pips I am out. I would never hold during a news event of that nature. I had a trade last night , and before I entered I saw there was a soft news event for the AUD. I have watched the reaction of all these news events and how they move the market. I knew the AUD event would not move it much 30 pips of so.. The Fed minutes can and will produce a 30 pip stop out candle alone, and that happens in seconds. I never trade the news , I wait and see how the pair reacts to it and then might not trade that pair for a day or 2. I might make 1-2 trades a day. If I make a winning trade for my 1st trade of the day I am done. I cant sit all day and wait for set-ups like I did before. 100 pips a week is fine with me. I might have a week where i make 40 pips . Its all fine with me , I am not looking to become a Warren Buffett. Trading takes alot of time, always at the computer, i am trying to get a room full of traders together , and day trade, but Knoxville , TN is not the best place for that. The people down here couldnt count the 3 teeth they have in their mouth let alone trade. Even the people that I know that have money down here are not driven by money, they have a very different attitude, its almost a lazyness the carry around. I grew up in Queens NY , people there will do anything for money. The south is very different.
I am trading part time now, I have all day Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. I trade on other days, but set aside about 20 hrs a week for trading.
So far I have been able to add to my account weekly, while taking out about $400 a month to help with bills etc.
I am trying to hammer out a decent trading plan.
I watch DEMA crosses, Fibonacci and MACD. I pay attention to candles, but wouldn't say I "trade" them. I am operating almost specifically on 20 day 1hr charts for entry, and (sometimes) drop down to 15 min, or 5 min charts around exit time.
When I am assessing trends, mostly on the weekends I look at the 90 day 4 hr chart.
I have been trading the USD/JPY since Shinzo Abe won the election, and follow Japanese news.
I dabble with other currencies, but have found that when you focus in on one currency, you can almost feel what is happening.
Never risk more than 2% on any given trade. I try to have 75% of my trades have set limits and stops that represent 1:3 Risk to reward ratios (depending on the ATR).
I am trading part time now, I have all day Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. I trade on other days, but set aside about 20 hrs a week for trading.
So far I have been able to add to my account weekly, while taking out about $400 a month to help with bills etc.
I am trying to hammer out a decent trading plan.
I watch DEMA crosses, Fibonacci and MACD. I pay attention to candles, but wouldn't say I "trade" them. I am operating almost specifically on 20 day 1hr charts for entry, and (sometimes) drop down to 15 min, or 5 min charts around exit time.
When I am assessing trends, mostly on the weekends I look at the 90 day 4 hr chart.
I have been trading the USD/JPY since Shinzo Abe won the election, and follow Japanese news.
I dabble with other currencies, but have found that when you focus in on one currency, you can almost feel what is happening.
Never risk more than 2% on any given trade. I try to have 75% of my trades have set limits and stops that represent 1:3 Risk to reward ratios (depending on the ATR).
up 12 waiting for 5 more and done.. I dont care if it runs down 50 pips I am a scalper thru and thru ..lol i have this 50 ema in my way on the 15 min chart..if it breaks that its gone , if not it will be a longer hold then I want right now ...
up 12 waiting for 5 more and done.. I dont care if it runs down 50 pips I am a scalper thru and thru ..lol i have this 50 ema in my way on the 15 min chart..if it breaks that its gone , if not it will be a longer hold then I want right now ...
I can honestly say I have no idea. Does this have any impact tomorrow?
Yeah that was why, I was correct...I guess the thought was that them hiking rates meant they were taking a big move to stop the Lira from devaluing which would stem the tide of selling in the EM currencies.
I think it is a desperate move which is likely to fail.
I tried to short up higher on the Yen but did not get, had to go out so I pulled the order.
The move up was risk on move..all the riskies went up..but well off the highs now.
Quote Originally Posted by rick3117:
I can honestly say I have no idea. Does this have any impact tomorrow?
Yeah that was why, I was correct...I guess the thought was that them hiking rates meant they were taking a big move to stop the Lira from devaluing which would stem the tide of selling in the EM currencies.
I think it is a desperate move which is likely to fail.
I tried to short up higher on the Yen but did not get, had to go out so I pulled the order.
The move up was risk on move..all the riskies went up..but well off the highs now.
There is no doubt that Turkey is going into bankruptcy. That move last night did not help. The USD/LRY is up 778 pips since the news yesterday.
Closed my USD/JPY for 38 pips. Hit lmy limit @ 4:30 am.
As for the Fed news later , If you can trade that news good luck,, By the time the spreads get to normal , the event will have come and gone. The market will move 50 pips in the matter of 15 seconds,then level off for about 10 mins then start another trend. Simple stuff. Not really worth waiting all day for ..
There is no doubt that Turkey is going into bankruptcy. That move last night did not help. The USD/LRY is up 778 pips since the news yesterday.
Closed my USD/JPY for 38 pips. Hit lmy limit @ 4:30 am.
As for the Fed news later , If you can trade that news good luck,, By the time the spreads get to normal , the event will have come and gone. The market will move 50 pips in the matter of 15 seconds,then level off for about 10 mins then start another trend. Simple stuff. Not really worth waiting all day for ..
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