USD/JPY First Quarter

Well, there you have it. 

I fell victim to my #1 rule and did not check the risk events. 

Not only did it hit my stop, but it did not fill it until there was significant damage. 

-26 pips

Slippage seems to favor when I am losing money I notice.

went long USD/JPY @ 102.507 and it has been bleeding down ever since .. Has to bounce off 102.374  or I am getting stopped out for sure. 

banks are trading ... there is no reason for this pair to run down like this .. blew thru 3 hard support areas ... You never see that ... with no retrace at all.. retail can not do that alone ..

now just hanging over my stop @ 102.259 teasing my to lower it .. But I WILL NOT!!!! I am holding my position .. can it go thru 4 support areas ...wtf ???

i have every F**king ema on 3 time frames that can hold it ..But when the banks want it to go , they send it !! If I can get half back I will close ..or move up my stop .. 

The US/Yen has been looking weak for the last week..no range, no direction..

Well I can post from my laptop now but cant send a PM nor I can delete anything in my mailbox??Tried to PM you Wall after seeing your message in the other thread but not working for some reason..horrible day today got some kind of bug felt queasy after work like I had ate something bad but didn't get sick until I woke up about an hr ago,i wont be going to work tomorrow for sure

I added a lot at 170.17 not liking what im seeing outta this pair but it seems as though the momo has slowed a bit,ill bite heres to hoping it doesn't bite back

I cant add emoticons to posts either............WTF

2 predictions

1.Numbers will come in lower than expectations.
2. it will be blamed on the weather.

long NZD/USD @ 83.40  

Good spot, you will be able to tell if that resistance has truly turned into support fairly soon. 

I cant remember if you use fib lines or not knox? 

Man this USM wont go down..they reversed it 12 SPX points inside the first 90 minutes..

Tailed you in on NZD/USD

Filled@ .8348

Probably the weather.

That .8340 is a major Fib line, at 23%. 

If it stays above that and carves out meaningful support until close, it could be off to the races this evening, and testing a new 180 day high. 

Serious bearish engulfing candle on the 1hr.  If that doesnt spell rejection, I don't know what does, 
I am going to wait until the hour closes, and see what it does in the first few minutes of the next hour, but probably going to axe this trade and wait and monitor. 

Lets see how this candle forms up. 
I want to see it above .8340
And it looks like it will get there.

looks to want to test yesterdays highs , I have my limit just about 83.600 for 18 pips .. hopefully it gets there soon.

Not to sound like a total NEWB here but you guys don't think the retail #s took a bit of a  hit due to the  weather?I know there are other issues tied to this but in my neck of the woods its the 8th snowiest winter on record and its only mid Feb,not to mention we are setting records for consecutive days with crazy low temps..I honestly cant remember my kids missing this much school either and some of the days were due to the fact it was -12 below when kids would be waiting outside for the bus

 

Well, the last 3 jobless claims have blamed the weather.  I can't say that there is no direct impact,  I can say that there is another force of nature that has a much more direct impact on these numbers. 

Taper is pushing these numbers more than the weather. 

Who gets laid off because of snow?

believe it or not there are actually metrics that show a sharp rise in retail prior to big snow storms, especially if they are successive, and well known of. 
WE saw this current one coming for a week.  So people go out, and buy supplies, generators, and over consume based on a perceived scarcity heading down the road.

It takes quarters for supply line data to even make it's way into these numbers. 

In my opinion the snow is a convenient scapegoat for what is truly moving these markets.