The Stock Market - A daily diary

And, yes.  Time decay this late is very big.  And, yes.  Sometimes there will be a lot of volatility on the last day or two. 

I think those came out okay?  At any rate -- you should have something along those lines wherever you trade.

Thanks for the info    I’m seeing short volume decreased by 29%   4.2 mil to 3 mil  Somebody is optimistic.  APT to the moon tomorrow. Lol.   

Good luck

June is turning out to be a topsy turvy month for the markets, with these Chinese Flu flareups in TX, CA, FL, TX, AZ, and NC putting some doubt in investors now (and rightfully so).  So,  what's the catalysts for the  next big drawdown in stocks.  A huge spike in NYC, or maybe NBA & MLB cancelling their recently announced season restarts ?  Whatever it is , I'm getting my stock shopping list ready this time , and am now adding TJX and ROST to the list.  These discount shopping retail chains have shown themselves to be "Amazon Proof" for quite some time.  What's amazing is that both of them actually eschew e-commerce sales from their revenue.   They both specialize in women who enjoy that "treasure hunt" in their stores, finding name brand clothes at a huge discount.  The inventory brands continually evolve, so there is no knowing what you're going to find; thus , the reasoning why the treasure hunt at discount prices is so attractive.  To gauge how successful their business model is, TJX opened up to a few dozen stores after the Kung Flu shutdown, with women waiting in line for the stores to open !  Lol..  An interviewer asked an employee what the atmosphere was like , and she responded "It's like Christmas !"..  A shopper chimed in said, ".... For us, too !! "   Lol.  (True story)  It's a sticky business model, and that bodes well for both companies.    I'm gonna wait and see if investors throw the baby out with the bathwater with these 2 stocks in the coming months..  

. Holy hell.   I Was watching every other minute on my stock app as my phone was on my dash the entire day.   It was toyin with 19 all day then BAM in matter of couldn’t have been five minutes it plummeted a full point and closed half a point even lower.  I could’ve gotten out at a 77 dollar profit at its peak of 19.3 I believe.   But instead... got greedy and thought that the 20 mark was in its sights and ended up losing the $950 or so. apparently it was NOT added to the Russell today like the report mentioned.  They are pushing it to Monday.   So what does a loser gambler do ?  He chases his losses.   Two weeks in a row losing over 900 on the same stock because my dumb ass doesn’t know when to get out mid week at a decent profit.  Let’s try this again.  I just bought 16 $18.50 July 2 calls at $1.28.    So.  How was everyone else’s week ?  Haha 

concave...I am buy and hold for the most part so this was a bad week. I'm ignoring the damage because I'm convinced we will retest the lows sooner or later. 10 years from now it will be a blip on the chart though. That's what my "time" advice was about. Stop restricting your time and increasing your beta. Chasing beta is a losers game because bad run beta is so crushing to a portfolio.

Good advice  

Did you place the sell orders?  What price did you put for them?

Dammit raiders.  I don’t know how to put those fukers in place.   still tinkering on this stop limit crap which is a MUST.  there is no business on why I should’ve lost in back to back weeks since this stock moved up past my strike in consecutive weeks.  But since I’m just jumping into the pool with a mask on , I got what’s deserved.  

Go on website and look it up?  Or call and ask for help?

It is not complicated at all -- once you do a few -- it will become second nature.

But these are very short term --so you have to have them in place.  And make sure a One-Cancel-All type order.  Stop at whatever you plan for the most you are willing to lose on the trade.  And a limit on what you hope to reasonably profit.  And make sure that once one or the other is triggered, it will automatically cancel the other order.  

You can always adjust as time goes on and trade --hopefully -- moves in your direction.  But do that now, before tomorrow morning.

 

Well I got the TURKEY.   Third consecutive week my calls expired worthless.   Cannot believe $APT actually lost value this week as state after state mandates masks.  Even the Donald endorsed them on tv last night.  it’s what I do.  I go for broke without setting stops or selling at a limit if I’m positive, which I’m not sure I ever was this week.  No lie, actually had my phone on with no lock as I watched almost second of this stock since Monday.  Opened the week 17.5 and I think it hit 18.55 for a few seconds a few days ago.  since opening I was down and it never came back.  

You had said something a week ago about catching lightning in a bottle.  Well did you see what Fedex did this week. My god.  I think their call options increased 15 fold at one point.  They reported earnings Wednesday.  The stock went up 5 points then shot up over TWENTY points after hours.  would’ve been an absolute dream holding them options and waking up to massive gains. 

Yes.  I saw you could’ve gotten out very early in session with a profit — and even later with not a total loss.  

I did see fedex.  

But guess what else I saw? 

BA

i had been telling some folks i thought I saw a jump coming.  It came Monday.  I didn’t do anything. But a guy I had been telling to watch it — got in.  

Stock went up 24%.  The calls he got went up 518%!

Think he got out at around 450% profit.   

So, there are some ‘lucky’ chances out there.  

But the main thing is slow and steady as you learn. And the main thing is limit your losses! 

I have also been keeping up more and more with APT since you have a running interest in it.  

Have you been keeping up with the news on it?  

    There were a couple of interesting articles on it a bit ago.  And an analyst review that seemed okay  

Have you looked at the charts on it?

    If not—you should look at them and tell me what you see there?

Or are you mostly going by feel at this point?

    If so, maybe more research will help you. 

Think I’m gonna “change gears “ here and put  in some august 7 calls so I have a month till expiry and not a week like an idiot.  They haven’t released a Q2 earnings date but the rumor is around august 3rd.  Going by feel here.  Every single day headlines about states mandating masks.  This stock cannot continue to burn me for a fourth time can it ?  Hehe.  And damn.  Congrats on Boeing for your friend.  How sweet that must be to log in and see the price of the calls sky rocket.   

Rush51 - Hope you're alright, missing in action 

I’m not sure ‘they’ burned you   As much as you simply didn’t have orders in place to take the profits.  Every single time you could’ve made money at some point.  

August is still not that far out. 

But the short term are more volatile — so good chance to make money if done right.  As you saw with your missed chances with your options.  They were up and down quite a bit.  

If you are going to ‘day trade’ — you want some of that.   Unless, you know for sure you are going to go up slow and steady.  

You had chance to double your money in less than a day on a couple of occasions.  Who would not want to do that.  It is much easier to ‘time’ stocks like this than the whole market.  Especially, if it is a stock you are SME about.   

Well put.  I burned myself but not understanding what I was doing the first two weeks.  Trial and error.   Then the third week I wasn’t given the opportunity to make some dough.  Maybe this time we will see some spikes in the first few weeks so I can think I may have a chance before earnings ??

Glanced at 17.50s real quick.

Nov calls are too expensive maybe?

Aug 7 and 14 not a lot of interest — so, can’t do those.

Aug 21 would be past the earnings date and they have plenty of interest and volume.

Jul 24 and 31 not a lot of interest — so, can’t do those.

Jul 17 has good interest.

Jul 10 has enough interest and volume.   That is where I would look to day trade.  Especially, if you anticipate it to bounce up early next week. AND if you have orders in place to sell.  You want to get in and get out with a profit — quickly!

If you want to make sure to have them through the earnings — it might have to be Aug 21.  You could do both — BUT have orders in place to get out if they go bad OR if they do well also!

Looking at the charts — you can make a case for getting in while your shorter SMA is below the stock price.  But if you put a longer SMA across that you see the stock price has come back down below that one.  But the 2 have not crossed each other — yet.  One option would be to wait until this does happen.  Or you can try now and see if the stock heads back up and separates the SMA back out again.

I would go online and read about doing this in detail.  Some stocks are better with different ones.  You can play around with various ones until you ‘see’ what you think is a trend(s) that you might be able to take advantage of.

For example, maybe you can catch the July 10 on sale first thing Monday morning.  You can put an order in at say 20-25% lower than the close or even the bid right now.  Say .65 - .7.  Maybe the stock starts off by continuing down and then moves back up.  Or you can wait — if you have eyes on it — and see what it starts to do.  But the trend looks to be either headed on down.  Or it will correct itself to head back up.  I know that seems obvious, because it had to do one or the other.  But just by looking at the chart — I would say you find this out very early next week.  Maybe inside the first hour.  So, it would be worthwhile to have an order in place if you think that is the case.

Jul 10

Delta on these is at .4779 and implied volatility is 116% and the theoretical value is .83

Aug 21

Delta on these is at .5617 and implied volatility is 137% and the theoretical value is 2.60

Even though you want to key in on technicals When day trading — you still want to be aware of the fundamentals of a stock also.  So keep that in mind as well.

If you haven’t done so — go online and read and study the day-trading strategies—especially dealing with technical analysis.  If you need — I can dig up a couple of relevant links for you to look at that will break it down at a beginner’s level.

So as my “financial advisor “ you’re telling me to get in on July 10th calls at 17.50?  This thing shot up big after close on Thursday. Not sure why but we’re gonna find out early on Monday.   thanks for all this input and research on this stock.   VOLUME VOLUME VOLUME.  we need more of it