September Stock Talk I

I don't trust cities that have no body of water.  Dallas is the biggest, I think.  You're just never going to get that big without water

Buckle up boys, it could get exciting today and tomorrow

LEH down more in after hours. It is almost that the less which is known the lower the stock goes.

It wouldnt shock me if the stock sees the TWOs tomorrow.     

Gold is an inflation play.  Commodities have dropped like rocks and the dollar has strengthened so inflation fears have lessened.

Unless commodities start a meaningful rebound and/or the dollar heads south again, I wouldn't touch it.

Ed - what are your thoughts on WFC?  They have minimal sub-prime exposure and continue to grow assets.  A bouy in a sea of retail bank shipwrecks.  34 cent quarterly dividend.  Missed a buy at $25.  Watching for it to level out and bang it at $28-$29. 

judge, be careful with WFC.  Lots of folks have been saying that their books have been cooked.  They have changed their definition of delinquent loans from 90 days to 120 days among other things.

Plus large exposure in California and a high enough exposure in Florida that could create a problem.

And the number one reason to stay away, Cramer likes them from what I've heard.

If they are actually as profitable as they say they are, there is no way in hell that they were not involved in the things that are bringing down the whole financial market (not just subprime)

jaxwhitey is right, I have heard the opposite regarding their assets, that they might not be holding a ton of loans but they have plenty of toxic CDO's and exposure to commercial real estate.

If LEH falls and MER starts teetering the others will start pricing in some potential debacle from a name we havent considered yet.

WFC makes it, but at this price I am not buying. I liked it in the middle 20s better, but until the final "legs" fall I dont want any financial. If anything I would buy the KBE versus any single name bank wise.  

This LEH thing is nuts.

Last week, KDB offers $6 Billion for a 25% stake and today the market cap of the entire company is less than half of that.

I don't see a BSC $2 offer happening here, but I also don't see $26 or so like you could extrapolate out of the KDB deal.

The way this thing has imploded over the last week is ridiculous.  Two of the last three days you have had volume over 1/2 of the total number of outstanding shares.

yep...touring edition

thing is like driving the space shuttle. its very cool

Koaj,

The only thing that threw me for a loop was the control panel with the tire pressure monitor, it comes on with an exclamation point on the dash when the tire pressure drops..I didnt know what the crap it was and here when the temp goes up or down it turns on the tire pressure monitor. That and I didnt get how the oil wear indicator worked, it ticks down from 100% to about 20% based on usage and then it starts to warn as well.

We didnt get the touring edition due to the cost of the GPS, instead we purchased a Garmin 760 and pocketed 1k (the rear view monitor thing would make me motion sick). And isnt the DVD player mounted up?

So instead we got the EX-L and the leather has been great.

Looks like my long term view on CMG is coming home to roost, they finally admitted sales were slowing and the stock is down 20% today and made a 52 week low.

CMG fair value in the 40s-30s longer term.

One down many more to go such as FSLR, BIDU, GOOG

So anyone think AIG has potential of going under?

I have some life insurance policies with them.

Added some DRYS options today, way out in time and it lowers my basis on higher options bought long ago and getting killed.

I think the entire Restaurant sector was downgraded today by a lot of firms.

CNBC is implying there might be a rate cut this weekend?????

If thats true then its back to the commodities/metals for a run on top of todays pop, inflation comes back into play and there will be no skiing in the Alps this winter for me.   

Nah in this case CMG came out and admitted they were going to miss the high numbers the market had for the upcoming year and quarter.

Gunners remembers I didnt like them at 120, I dont like them until they get to the 40s and maybe not even then. Too many flaws in their operational design. We had a talk about this topic a while ago and it ticked off a few people that I thought the stock was overvalued.

do you guys think USO 81.60 would be a good play for the hurricane coming. I'm thinking it will do some serious damage.

dont know too much about USO. i already have DIG

LEH to the low of the day, big volume here..

USO catalyst gone for me, maybe you could squeeze a few points out but sentiment obviously bearish, it could be tough trying to find a bottom here.

USO= ETF for oil

Crude is down to $100.20 with a hurricane bearing down on the bulk of our offshore oil rigs and refineries and the dollar is down today.

Not a good sign at all