October Stock Talk I

 Better a day early than a day late.

 The question to me remains how long is the recession going to last,and how deep will the decline in housing prices go?

  I see a long deep recession and more double digit declines in house prices...

 

What a dismal time to be a college graduate   I am struggling to find a job that does not require either 5-7 years of experience... or else the job is waiting on tables or painting (not there there is anything wrong with that, but then why did I bother with college)

Anyways, I have about 6,000 saved up... is the best thing for me to do is leave it in a savings account?  Any advice is appreciated as always, thanks guys

clay, I am debt free, which is about the only thing I have going for me right now.  I am working a job at a hardware store while I am looking for a better job.  Thanks for the input

As above, congrats on escaping college without debts.You are in better shape than a lot of new (and old) grads.

 I would sit tight with that cash and watch the next few months play out.When you do decide to test the waters, do so in increments only.
 
  We are in for a seriously steep recession, for the simple reason that the economy is consumer driven, the consumer is credit driven, and credit is getting tighter at the exact time in needs to be looser. The American consumer is tapped out, pure and simple, and it will get worse with layoffs yet to be announced.

  Once housing recovers (and you are talking years, as the bubble there was truly enormous), and only once housing recovers, would I feel the need to loosen my grip on cash.

Good discussion last month everyone..great threads during a difficult period. I imagine October wont be much easier.

woop, I would suggest trying to build it up and use for a larger purchase like a home etc.

That said..when I was first out of college I went right to the market with my cash..I am not ashamed to say it, in fact I was trading the markets before I was even in college and during it.

If you choose to start trading I would try and get as educated as you can and understand that trading could mean you lose whatever you put in.

To a degree this could be an awesome opportunity for someone with a longer horizon to pick up some great names and possibly make a HUGE return. I could name 10 stocks that I think are above this mess and have been hit and could return huge..here are a few-

VLO
JNPR
CSCO
DPTR
RMBS
BRCM (at under 20 it looks good to me)

Thats a quick 6 and there are many more out there just as good. If someone had some cash you could invest in the tech sector and energy and probably do quite well.   

Looking good so far..

 Ah the WSJ is 24/7 online bro

good luck though.I am thinking of DXD until DOW gets to between 7250- 8000...

Nice trade guys..

The SPX trade was in still and the GTLS trade worked.

Making a profit in this market is brutally tough.

Anyone see the last few minutes on GOOG? Someone messed up the order book and the stock went from 480 to like 1 in the last minute, I wish I had been watching.

Wallstreet . . . in response to your question in your other thread about Mavrinac yes I did see he is standing pat with his estimate.  Good for him.  Lets hope that it does come to fruition. 

I really like what I am seeing other than the current share price!  However, I have added A LOT of cheap shares . . . so in the long run I hope it is profitable.

Question . . . are the republicans serious about getting rid of mark-to-market

Do they honestly think that is the problem here

So basically you get rid of mark-to-market and then you make companies less transparent?  I mean I guess you would still have footnote disclosure but what a joke.  There are reasons these rules are put into place.  Sigh.

VH2,

To a degree I agree with that thinking for the same reasons I explained in some other thread. I have talked about the CDO market so much I forget what I said where..

The mark to market rule is inefficient in a LOCKED market. Now since the bids are gone, the mark to market is forcing margin call after margin call.

I say get rid of the immediate mark to market valuation until there is some liquidity.

Also VH2 I made a thread on yahoo about the valuation concering the OR assets..to me it is so obvious that the street is missing it.

George spent 2.1B on the OR assets, I forget how much is financed  but I know a ton of cash was spent and some was financed.. anyway based on the day rates for the OR assets it is the equivilant of George buying 40% plus of the fleet at higher rates than we have locked on the Capsize vessels.

I calculated that it would be equal to 15 Capsize vessels at 140M each (15 times 140 is 2.1B ) and based on the average daily rate of 575k that would mean the Capsizes locked for 3-5 years at 73k a day..now the daily expenses are higher but DRYS has Capes locked at 20k a day under that for 4 years right now.

The end result is that based on market cap the street is either ignoring 6-7 bucks a share and the value of the OR assets, or valuing the bulk assets and cashflow/earnings at zero. Either way based only on NAV the stock is 30 bucks undervalued.

It wont happen tomorrow or the next day but when they decide to get back into the sector, DRYS will go up 7-9 bucks a day for a week and fast, just like it did going down.

Yeah Wallstreet I actually read that thread at work today.  Work firewalls covers . . . but yahoo message boards they do not so I'm able to pop on there from time-to-time while at work.  Saw that discussion going on.  It was a good one to have. 

I agree with you . . . DRYS + OR is severly undervalued . . . just a matter of time.  Hopefully in the near term we recoup and gain ground. But I presently do not have a need for this money so I'm not as concerned.  Trying to exhibit some patience.  Its tough . . . but trying. 

yep longer term I think it does..that could be 5 years but I think it will.

Buffett got yet another sweet deal today-

link

10% yield preferred stock with a premium call feature AND warrants to purchase common shares of GE at a price BELOW a 10 year low on the common stock, at 22.25

 WB buying into G.E. to the tune of 3 bn...

 He is really cleaning up off this disaster. Talk about having cash when it is needed...wow

n to the 60s I suppose on this news..amazing....when the shackles are off, I am getting back into that baby.