Why not start it...I am going to look over a lot of stuff, thnk a lot, maybe have a shot of 1800 or something. Last week was as expected.More volatility is the order of the day.
Speaking of volatility, am gonna knock back a Lagavulin a Scottish friend of mine gifted me.Maybe it will clear my head, or nostrils, or both.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Why not start it...I am going to look over a lot of stuff, thnk a lot, maybe have a shot of 1800 or something. Last week was as expected.More volatility is the order of the day.
Speaking of volatility, am gonna knock back a Lagavulin a Scottish friend of mine gifted me.Maybe it will clear my head, or nostrils, or both.
I don't like the site either (format, never really read the actual content except specific stats) and did not mean to link it....like you say, what a mess...I usually arrive there scanning other stuff.
That stat still kind of freaked me out a bit.
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I don't like the site either (format, never really read the actual content except specific stats) and did not mean to link it....like you say, what a mess...I usually arrive there scanning other stuff.
I see their links regularly on yahoo and I like what they have to say..so no problem there, but like you say get to the point..haha
I wonder how that FASB rule will be enforced? I have to think the end result wont be bad because of the disclaimer companies will all tag onto the change in valuation.
Since it is an accounting requirement and not a real change in asset I dont think the implications will be serious.
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Vermeer,
I see their links regularly on yahoo and I like what they have to say..so no problem there, but like you say get to the point..haha
I wonder how that FASB rule will be enforced? I have to think the end result wont be bad because of the disclaimer companies will all tag onto the change in valuation.
Since it is an accounting requirement and not a real change in asset I dont think the implications will be serious.
Yep, volatility. Jump in, jump out, oh my God, whipsaw, the whole 9 yards.
Crazy, insane.
Nothing but BIG-TIME gambling out there at the liar's poker table.
Drink some for me, man.
No question it's going to be a crap shoot for sometime to come.
But it's a lot easier telling your wife that your "investing" in the stock market, then telling her you wheeled the 5 and 1 horse up and down in an exacta, took those two plus the 4 horse and put them in a trifecta, both straight and boxed, and have all three in the first half of your daily double.
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Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:
Yep, volatility. Jump in, jump out, oh my God, whipsaw, the whole 9 yards.
Crazy, insane.
Nothing but BIG-TIME gambling out there at the liar's poker table.
Drink some for me, man.
No question it's going to be a crap shoot for sometime to come.
But it's a lot easier telling your wife that your "investing" in the stock market, then telling her you wheeled the 5 and 1 horse up and down in an exacta, took those two plus the 4 horse and put them in a trifecta, both straight and boxed, and have all three in the first half of your daily double.
Yeah, women who become wives or girlfriends all pretty much hate gambling. They love it when you win and give them shopping money to get them out of the way during an important day of gambling, but have one bad streak and they f--ing go postal.
Which is exactly why I don't mess with the relationship crap and just pay for it when I want it.
Easier, and actually less costly over the long haul.....no Valentine's, no Christmas, no birthdays, no going to some family member's house that you can't stand but have to fake it, etc......
And when the losing streak hits (and it will), there is no one to explain it to.
Much better off just buying a hooker for basically same amount as dinner, movie, and gas......and it takes less time.
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Yeah, women who become wives or girlfriends all pretty much hate gambling. They love it when you win and give them shopping money to get them out of the way during an important day of gambling, but have one bad streak and they f--ing go postal.
Which is exactly why I don't mess with the relationship crap and just pay for it when I want it.
Easier, and actually less costly over the long haul.....no Valentine's, no Christmas, no birthdays, no going to some family member's house that you can't stand but have to fake it, etc......
And when the losing streak hits (and it will), there is no one to explain it to.
Much better off just buying a hooker for basically same amount as dinner, movie, and gas......and it takes less time.
Which is exactly why I have my own account (E*Trade) that is totally separate from "household" money. This is the jack I use for the annual Vegas trip, bookie, etc. She knows about it, but is smart enough not ask.
Sorry to be so far off topic.
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Which is exactly why I have my own account (E*Trade) that is totally separate from "household" money. This is the jack I use for the annual Vegas trip, bookie, etc. She knows about it, but is smart enough not ask.
Rink: yup.The degree to which they are leveraged is the surprise for me.As far as not having any effect, I am not certain of that...and the uncertainty I have is shared by a lot of people, and not just the outsiders like me. The overhanging dread that is in the air is reflective of that uncertainty, and will remain a significant drag on this market's year end performance...
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Rink: yup.The degree to which they are leveraged is the surprise for me.As far as not having any effect, I am not certain of that...and the uncertainty I have is shared by a lot of people, and not just the outsiders like me. The overhanging dread that is in the air is reflective of that uncertainty, and will remain a significant drag on this market's year end performance...
PS the oil find off the coast of Brazil is great news for PBR...deep water or not...
I think the US market will enter either a full bear market or major correction (pick your poison) in the coming months but it does not mean all markets will.
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PS the oil find off the coast of Brazil is great news for PBR...deep water or not...
I think the US market will enter either a full bear market or major correction (pick your poison) in the coming months but it does not mean all markets will.
Speaking of sites, I would be curious as to which sites anyone visits most often regarding the market (aside from their own brokerage site obviously)...I seem to hit Seeking Alpha a lot....WSJ online as well...
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Speaking of sites, I would be curious as to which sites anyone visits most often regarding the market (aside from their own brokerage site obviously)...I seem to hit Seeking Alpha a lot....WSJ online as well...
The only way to "trade" this market for the next 13 months is to short the short covering rallies, set a VERY conservative profit target, and get the hell out before the next short covering rally whipsaws the living f--k out of you. That's what a bear market does.....every vicious short squeeze will make you think the bar market is over.....but it's not.
I'll stick with these for the long haul, though:
GTLS
CRDC
SPWR
MSFT
and hope I'm ahead by end of '08.
CASH IS KING
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The only way to "trade" this market for the next 13 months is to short the short covering rallies, set a VERY conservative profit target, and get the hell out before the next short covering rally whipsaws the living f--k out of you. That's what a bear market does.....every vicious short squeeze will make you think the bar market is over.....but it's not.
I am afraid you may be right CC...a much longer process than people imagine, and deeper than people are expecting.The only salvation may be the emerging markets, but I think that a thin reed to base hopes on.
I am unsure if I posted this on the 7th, but that is when I read it...and it ties in with the start of this thread. There, I am off into the sunshine.byt he way, the Lagavulin is a wild ride...people either hate it or love it, and I am in the latter.But it did not blow the top off my gourd as I had feared!! From the WSJ
Write this down: five hundred billion dollars.
That is how much one analyst thinks the tally of the carnage in the
fixed-income markets ultimately could be. Royal Bank of Scotland Group
chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah put out a report today estimating
that the credit crunch will cause $250 billion to $500 billion of
losses at banks and brokers around the world.
As Bloomberg points out in this story on the report,
the estimate includes not just losses on subprime mortgage-related
bonds but also the effect of a new accounting standard that goes into
effect Nov. 15 known as Financial Accounting Standards Board’s rule
157. It will force companies to put values on opaque securities and
could lead to write downs of as much as $100 billion at firms including
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group, according to Janjuah.
Should the estimate prove accurate, it would mean the credit-market
storm that began this summer is just beginning. The total of
write-downs already announced by Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and the other
Wall Street firms is only about $30 billion to $40 billion.
Big as those numbers are, they still don’t come close to the last
major crop of write-downs, when another accounting change prompted
eye-popping losses at companies including AT&T and AOL Time Warner
in 2002. The media-and-Internet conglomerate had write-downs that year
for goodwill and soured Internet assets of roughly $100 billion.
Still, Janjuah’s number is in a league by itself. Not only is the
upper end of his range roughly what the U.S. has spent on the Iraq War,
it is about equal to the market caps of the three largest U.S. banks,
Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America, combined.
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I am afraid you may be right CC...a much longer process than people imagine, and deeper than people are expecting.The only salvation may be the emerging markets, but I think that a thin reed to base hopes on.
I am unsure if I posted this on the 7th, but that is when I read it...and it ties in with the start of this thread. There, I am off into the sunshine.byt he way, the Lagavulin is a wild ride...people either hate it or love it, and I am in the latter.But it did not blow the top off my gourd as I had feared!! From the WSJ
Write this down: five hundred billion dollars.
That is how much one analyst thinks the tally of the carnage in the
fixed-income markets ultimately could be. Royal Bank of Scotland Group
chief credit strategist Bob Janjuah put out a report today estimating
that the credit crunch will cause $250 billion to $500 billion of
losses at banks and brokers around the world.
As Bloomberg points out in this story on the report,
the estimate includes not just losses on subprime mortgage-related
bonds but also the effect of a new accounting standard that goes into
effect Nov. 15 known as Financial Accounting Standards Board’s rule
157. It will force companies to put values on opaque securities and
could lead to write downs of as much as $100 billion at firms including
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group, according to Janjuah.
Should the estimate prove accurate, it would mean the credit-market
storm that began this summer is just beginning. The total of
write-downs already announced by Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and the other
Wall Street firms is only about $30 billion to $40 billion.
Big as those numbers are, they still don’t come close to the last
major crop of write-downs, when another accounting change prompted
eye-popping losses at companies including AT&T and AOL Time Warner
in 2002. The media-and-Internet conglomerate had write-downs that year
for goodwill and soured Internet assets of roughly $100 billion.
Still, Janjuah’s number is in a league by itself. Not only is the
upper end of his range roughly what the U.S. has spent on the Iraq War,
it is about equal to the market caps of the three largest U.S. banks,
Citigroup, J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America, combined.
Yeah, and that 500 billions lost........imagine the effect on the economy. Couple that with a dollar not even worth pennies, and 400 dollar a barrel oil and you got a recipe for a depression a la 1930s.
EXACTLY why we need a new invention to kick start things.
You'll see. No need to rebut, Vermeer, cause I already know your stance on alternative energy.
Cheers
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Yeah, and that 500 billions lost........imagine the effect on the economy. Couple that with a dollar not even worth pennies, and 400 dollar a barrel oil and you got a recipe for a depression a la 1930s.
EXACTLY why we need a new invention to kick start things.
You'll see. No need to rebut, Vermeer, cause I already know your stance on alternative energy.
you should add "and you better make damn sure that cash is in a safe place" I don't trust half the so called "Banks" or "Investment Firms" out there right now.
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CASH IS KING
you should add "and you better make damn sure that cash is in a safe place" I don't trust half the so called "Banks" or "Investment Firms" out there right now.
Book value isnt the greatest measure for big monster companies like these guys. They arent trading at huge multiples to book anyway.
I really dont see this being a big deal, especially if the media plays it up for a long time.
The worst that could happen is the banks get tighter with their loose credit and become more fiscally responsible..which is a good thing if you ask me.
Maybe I will get a few less advertisments from Chase and Citi in the mail every week.
Claycourt, I wouldnt not have a relationship just for the gambling issue..if you get with someone just lay it out and say you have some needs as an individual and if she is ok with that good, if not then the relationship cannot be serious.
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Book value isnt the greatest measure for big monster companies like these guys. They arent trading at huge multiples to book anyway.
I really dont see this being a big deal, especially if the media plays it up for a long time.
The worst that could happen is the banks get tighter with their loose credit and become more fiscally responsible..which is a good thing if you ask me.
Maybe I will get a few less advertisments from Chase and Citi in the mail every week.
Claycourt, I wouldnt not have a relationship just for the gambling issue..if you get with someone just lay it out and say you have some needs as an individual and if she is ok with that good, if not then the relationship cannot be serious.
As for 2012, Mayans, sub prime mletdowns etc, I advise tasting as much single malt as one can, taking some real Es, tapping the ass of plenty of DDs, and hitting some White Widow on the way out of Amsterdam. Where you go from there is up to you..
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CC
My stance on alt energy is simple realism...
As for 2012, Mayans, sub prime mletdowns etc, I advise tasting as much single malt as one can, taking some real Es, tapping the ass of plenty of DDs, and hitting some White Widow on the way out of Amsterdam. Where you go from there is up to you..
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