Posted:
#26
Bought $5 Jan calls on HSOA at 3.10. With their recent contracts and hurricane season getting kicked off I think this one has a good shot to be at 10 by October.
June 2007 Stock Talk
Posted:
#27
GVK,
Somthing just doesnt sit well with me about HSOA. That price is good, you arent paying that much premium and the effect is you are getting better than 2 to 1 margin vs the stock since you are buying so deep.
HSOA seems like a marketing pump machine and when I looked at their margins and timeframe for those contracts I got a little less excited about these ONE HUNDRED MILLION dollar contracts. Most are 3-5 yr time span, and their gross margin is 14%..which means of 100M only 14 flows below COGS.
Somthing just doesnt sit well with me about HSOA. That price is good, you arent paying that much premium and the effect is you are getting better than 2 to 1 margin vs the stock since you are buying so deep.
HSOA seems like a marketing pump machine and when I looked at their margins and timeframe for those contracts I got a little less excited about these ONE HUNDRED MILLION dollar contracts. Most are 3-5 yr time span, and their gross margin is 14%..which means of 100M only 14 flows below COGS.
Posted:
#30
Grinder,
I guess you have time before the options melt, not exactly sure what drew you to the trade but I hope it reverses.
If you are feeling shy about success, you might try paper trading until you see better results..
If you have questions or issues you can always ask here..not that I am a great trader but always willing to help.
I guess you have time before the options melt, not exactly sure what drew you to the trade but I hope it reverses.
If you are feeling shy about success, you might try paper trading until you see better results..
If you have questions or issues you can always ask here..not that I am a great trader but always willing to help.
Posted:
#31
Thanks WS. I guess my main problem is that even though I know i place high risk trades I would think I would have a few pay off once in a while. I mean hell, If I took 5K to a slot machine I would have had better success.
Im starting to look at different strategies, I think I might start investigating covered calls a little further. At first I thought they were too conservative but I think I found a few ways to make them more speculative.
I'm checking out these right now... SNDA, JCOM, LFUS. You familar with them at all?
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
Grinder,
The trade isnt sexy thats for sure..meaning if the stock goes up 2 bucks to 21 then those 50 cent options (if you got filled) would be a 4 bagger while the 17.50 options go up 3.50 and you make a 50% return, but reverse if the stock goes to 18 you dont lose 100% of your investment either..
The difference is me 10 yrs ago vs today..10 yrs ago I make that first trade looking for the fences, today I make the more sensible trade trying to preserve capital.
The trade isnt sexy thats for sure..meaning if the stock goes up 2 bucks to 21 then those 50 cent options (if you got filled) would be a 4 bagger while the 17.50 options go up 3.50 and you make a 50% return, but reverse if the stock goes to 18 you dont lose 100% of your investment either..
The difference is me 10 yrs ago vs today..10 yrs ago I make that first trade looking for the fences, today I make the more sensible trade trying to preserve capital.
you're just getting old, wallstreet. ha ha, 35 is pushing it... 
Posted:
#34
wallstreet: Did you write today's nasty article at stocklemon about HSOA? 
Just kidding, but I find it hard to believe these contracts are total BS as alleged in this article. I did realize that they would realize about $10 mil in additional revenue in 2007 on one of the contracts and assuming they only see an additional $20 mil in revenue from the contracts in 2007 that's still significant for a company of their market cap.
Just kidding, but I find it hard to believe these contracts are total BS as alleged in this article. I did realize that they would realize about $10 mil in additional revenue in 2007 on one of the contracts and assuming they only see an additional $20 mil in revenue from the contracts in 2007 that's still significant for a company of their market cap. Maybe I did get taken to the cleaners. It won't be the first time and probably won't be the last.
Posted:
#35
gvk,
I AM STOCKLEMONN (notice the typo)..haha
One comment I need to make about stocklemon, I was involved in a stock that was dicussed by that site and people HATED them severely, but you know what? They were 10000000% correct. The company in question even threatened to sue the site and everyone hated them, but they were right. I would be careful and read what they say..I actually think they are good at what they do and if there is a good writeup, they risk quite a bit to say what they do...not saying they are right about HSOA just read it all and think about it. (I havent read it)
My comment about HSOA was that even if all these contracts are legit, they are over 3-5 plus year horizons and their margins are low, so yeah lets say they are making those contracts, how much of that flows to the bottom line? Not enough to make me go crazy over the stock.
AZGrinder,
I was commenting to you yesterday and my computer fritzed. My comment to you was that I think you are trying very hard which is good but your trades arent good trades. You need to start hitting some base hits and get some winners under your belt. You get winners by placing in the money call options or put options on stocks that fit the profile and you try to make 10-20% on the trade, forget about where the stock goes, get some winners under your belt and learn how to invest via options..not gamble. I did the same thing you did and I think I lost about 10k doing so (years ago) by trying out of the money options and losing more than I won..
Try and find stocks that are either breaking down or are in good up trends but still not extended and make trades that you can be sure are safer versus 2 bucks out of the money or a buck out of the money and a month out in strike. Get 2 contracts safely in the money versus 15 out..it isnt sexy and the return isnt a monster but you will make money INVESTING..of course us stop losses on the trades as well.
I AM STOCKLEMONN (notice the typo)..haha
One comment I need to make about stocklemon, I was involved in a stock that was dicussed by that site and people HATED them severely, but you know what? They were 10000000% correct. The company in question even threatened to sue the site and everyone hated them, but they were right. I would be careful and read what they say..I actually think they are good at what they do and if there is a good writeup, they risk quite a bit to say what they do...not saying they are right about HSOA just read it all and think about it. (I havent read it)
My comment about HSOA was that even if all these contracts are legit, they are over 3-5 plus year horizons and their margins are low, so yeah lets say they are making those contracts, how much of that flows to the bottom line? Not enough to make me go crazy over the stock.
AZGrinder,
I was commenting to you yesterday and my computer fritzed. My comment to you was that I think you are trying very hard which is good but your trades arent good trades. You need to start hitting some base hits and get some winners under your belt. You get winners by placing in the money call options or put options on stocks that fit the profile and you try to make 10-20% on the trade, forget about where the stock goes, get some winners under your belt and learn how to invest via options..not gamble. I did the same thing you did and I think I lost about 10k doing so (years ago) by trying out of the money options and losing more than I won..
Try and find stocks that are either breaking down or are in good up trends but still not extended and make trades that you can be sure are safer versus 2 bucks out of the money or a buck out of the money and a month out in strike. Get 2 contracts safely in the money versus 15 out..it isnt sexy and the return isnt a monster but you will make money INVESTING..of course us stop losses on the trades as well.
Posted:
#36
I know your right its just sooo hard, and im getting dangeroulsy close to my loss threshold. I already know Im gonna get hammered tomorrow on my shfl calls. They got beat to shit today and I didnt sell, just rolling the dice. Can you explain something to me? Is there any relevence to the weird action I saw on shfl regarding the 09 puts and calls? Volume obscene on the 30.00 calls and on the 10.00 puts. I thought that was weird so far out in time and such a large spread.
I need a miracle tomorrow, I do feel better having the 17.50 rather than 20's though.
Almost made an impulse buy on guess today ahead of earnings but i've been so off I backed away. It felt like a loss after seeing it move up in extended trading. BRUTAL
Posted:
#37
I'm interested in your thoughts on Jetblue Airlines (JBLU). I have been told that the company owns the rights to the technology for playing satelite tv on airlines. An old college roomate is a pilot for them and claims JBLU are the only airline in the usa to currently have satelite tv (for every seat on the plane) and that if other airlines wanted to include this feature they would have to pay a fee to JBLU. For what it is worth my friend says it is a great company to work for, sees the recent move to new CEO as a positive force for the company and finally, he views the company as undervalued.
Company is trading at 10.38 and has recently been downgraded by a few "Research Firms". p/e looks high.
I'm considering buying some and holding it for a couple of years. Do you have an opinion for or against this stock?
Posted:
#38
Oh crap, I just had a limit order fill that I had GTC. Oops, 50.00 sept 50 calls on DRIV, 2 contracts at 4.50 each. Not end of world but wish I could have it back. SHFL looking okay so far, I might escape out of this after all.
Hey Jamheat, I've had JBLU and MESA on my watchlist for a while but overall I cant get too excited about airline stocks. I think fuel costs screws them unless they prebuy it or have contracts at certain prices. Plus if any crash the stock will too i'm guessing. I know there are better places right now for investments...ughh of course im having trouble finding them though 
Posted:
#41
more on JBLU:
Two weeks ago, Moody's Investors Service downgraded approximately $1.5B in JBLU debt securities from B2 to B3 (both are "junk" ratings) and reiterated its "negative" outlook. The firm cited two consecutive years of losses for the company "despite an improved operating environment for airlines," as well as JBLU's inability to turn growth into profitability.
Two weeks ago, Moody's Investors Service downgraded approximately $1.5B in JBLU debt securities from B2 to B3 (both are "junk" ratings) and reiterated its "negative" outlook. The firm cited two consecutive years of losses for the company "despite an improved operating environment for airlines," as well as JBLU's inability to turn growth into profitability.
Posted:
#43
The problem with JBLU is they didnt hedge jet fuel when prices started ramping..so even though they are very popular and a decent company, their cost structure is out of control. They are paying large sums more than competitors for fuel..I read that the company has a policy of not hedging in the past, well it bit them in the a## this time around.
Of course most if not all airlines are leveraged to the full ammt, so when the cost structure doesnt work, then they go under like Delta and a slew of others. If fuel doesnt come down I imagine that JBLU will hit a cash crunch too.
If prices on fuel drop, JBLU and LUV are the stocks to own, but only in a good environment costs wise.
Of course most if not all airlines are leveraged to the full ammt, so when the cost structure doesnt work, then they go under like Delta and a slew of others. If fuel doesnt come down I imagine that JBLU will hit a cash crunch too.
If prices on fuel drop, JBLU and LUV are the stocks to own, but only in a good environment costs wise.
insider buying
Posted:
#49
Grinder,
That REALLY sucks..seriously. I hope that tomorrow the trading isnt so bad but they obviously thought the company would blow out numbers, I read that the market wanted 13 cents so the 10 cents wasnt good enough.
I hate trading into earnings, its such a roulette spin..even if you feel confident and the number is good the stock could get nailed.
That REALLY sucks..seriously. I hope that tomorrow the trading isnt so bad but they obviously thought the company would blow out numbers, I read that the market wanted 13 cents so the 10 cents wasnt good enough.
I hate trading into earnings, its such a roulette spin..even if you feel confident and the number is good the stock could get nailed.
Posted:
#50
Yeah, it just sucks cuz i really thought I was gonna get lucky after seeing it start to run mid day.
Am I asking myself the right questions when I look at volume on options? For example if you look at AVII June 5.00 calls trading at .05 and stock trading at 2.85 to me I cant for the life of me figure out why 600 contracts changed hands. Is that important? Somebody know something? Meaningless? I seem to see weird stuff like this all the time. 
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