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July Stock Talk II 2007

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Posts: 139

depeche2

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2002

Posts: 67006

Posted: Jul. 27, 2007 - 4:17 PM ET #126

This reminds me of the late-Feb correction that dropped the Dow back to around 12K. I think around 13K is probably going to be the bottom. So another 2% or so on the downside for a roughly 7% correction total. It's probably bounce around 13K for a couple weeks before a late summer rally heading into the fall. Probably dead money for the next month or so though. Just my opinion. Then we'll have a good buying opportunity and I do think the indices will reach new highs again before the end of the year.

whereismyhat

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 16136

Posted: Jul. 27, 2007 - 7:38 PM ET #127

what about NATK?

claycourtlesson

All-Star

Joined: Jan, 2006

Posts: 14917

Posted: Jul. 27, 2007 - 7:52 PM ET #128

BUYING OPPORTUNITY

I am not a trader and can't give any insight in to what happens today, tomorrow, and certainly not the next 2 minutes.

I am a buy and hold boring mofo.

That being said, this fear driven panic sell-off is creating a very nice buying opportunity for people who buy and hold for at least a year.

A lot of good names out there now on sale.

Cheers

Vermeer

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2006

Posts: 2910

Posted: Jul. 30, 2007 - 9:51 AM ET #129

More a long term investor, I think short term this market bounces, then sells off to around 12,800. Lots of chop in the meantime.
Short term oils look to trend down, but I am a Peak oil believer. Happy hunting, this should be an interesting week, and for traders, one of opportunity, with some wild swings.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Jul. 31, 2007 - 12:04 PM ET #130

Nice bounce today..

I am considering some WFMI options, longer term..like Jan 2009

depeche2

Legend

Joined: Feb, 2002

Posts: 67006

Posted: Jul. 31, 2007 - 12:23 PM ET #131

Guys, I need your one best pick. Something to double in a year. I got cash for one stock buy. Maybe something in tech. Let's hear it.

Gunners

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2006

Posts: 3392

Posted: Jul. 31, 2007 - 12:43 PM ET #132

MVIS

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Aug. 1, 2007 - 9:58 AM ET #133

Jeff,

Nice job, VLO broke through the 200 day and keeps falling..congrats!!!!

I am shocked that the puts I sold on the cheap for AAPL and AMZN are coming back to life..

AZGrinder

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 328

Posted: Aug. 1, 2007 - 10:09 AM ET #134

Sucks man, I was so happy to escape out of my aapl 120 puts on FRIDAY 27th for .30 and now 1.80

Feel like i've owned pozn for years, hurry up already.FDA

I woke up in a bad mood.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Aug. 1, 2007 - 10:13 AM ET #135

Grinder..

yep...I did the same thing on both of those and the AMZN ones I had.

This trading action really makes me feel that POZN wont bounce much..its acting like garbage.

Bot more yesterday at 16.65

AZGrinder

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 328

Posted: Aug. 1, 2007 - 10:21 AM ET #136

Did you sell any calls or you letting it ride? I went the wussy route and sold the calls and bought the otm puts.

By the way, I've been playing around with some option pricing calculators and it wants me to put in a volatily%. How do I figure this and do you know of a website that has these numbers? I just started looking but if you know of anything let me know.

wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 58464

Posted: Aug. 1, 2007 - 10:32 AM ET #137

Grinder,

Yeah there are ways to figure out the volatility, I dont think you can find it too easily but its just a function of the stock and the market in general.

You know what...I tried those Black Scholes option pricing tools and to me I could never find the value in trying to outguess the market. Meaning I know there are better times to buy calls and puts when the volatility is down, but damn if I have the time to plug in hundreds of stocks and see when that is the case..

I know there are services that assist with that..some tools you can use with programs you can buy that do that too..

Nah I let it ride bro..no selling calls or buying puts..that said I am big on feel in the market..trading action and feel and somthing doesnt feel right here..there isnt much rush into the stock, and if people were so bullish the stock would be bought up in anticipation and it hasnt happened at all...

AZGrinder

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 328

Posted: Aug. 1, 2007 - 10:52 AM ET #138

Yeah, I think there isn't enough news on this...to create any interest. Oh well, we shall find out soon hope we all win!

Yeah, volatility stuff is interesting but from what i've found it can be misleading depending on time frames involved. still researching.

IMB, DHI, still going lower..wonder how low they can go. IMB said they are paying there .50 div still in september. Cant be that bad.

SwanDawg95

Veteran

Joined: Mar, 2005

Posts: 3944

Posted: Aug. 6, 2007 - 11:19 AM ET #139

wallstreet.....do you typically do option? Are you usually on a call/put or do you do any spreads (straddles, strangles etc)?

I'm relatively new into options....developing a strategy at this point.

Thanks....

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