January Stock Talk Part IV

Somebody seems to really want to see the Dow positive.  Naz still off and the broader market, but would make quite a headline.

I dont think they get there today..

Too bad because if they DID go positive it would have been a tremendous deal technically.

Anyone see the solars????

WOW

Wow AAPL slighly down in after hours to say the least. Did not quite meet earnings. Down 15 to around 140

AAPL warned, getting hit down 15 in after hours, all tech getting hit.

Tech is cooked for a while now.  

IMO domestic inflows arent what is supporting the markets, so capital gain elimination isnt going to help all that much.

To me what is supporting and now hurting the markets is institutional flows and FOREIGN investors..if the "world" outside the US is in trouble, investors looking to put capital to work using our cheap bucks are going to hold back and that will hurt the markets more than the little guy getting dinged on taxes at the end of the year.

Also not sure that Fannie raising the regular loan limit and extending it out so the terms arent "jumbo" wont help that much either. Prices need to settle in and inventories need to come down..in my area new builders are just chomping at the bit to unload inventory and on any uptick they are going to be selling like crazy, that will keep depressing the resale market down here.

Even with rates at AWESOME levels, it isnt helping the housing market..looks like we are in for a few years of famine with the economy and housing prices.

If I had free capital I would immediately start looking at places like SanFran and try and snag an awesome deal on a foreclosure because you know certain areas in the country will hang in there and if you buy right, the upside is HUGE in areas like that.     

Looks like a down 100 day was right, WSC.  Well done.  I didn't think the FOMC would panic like that, but I am not upset that they did......cause if "Scholar Ben" had fled to his economic theory textbooks, then we could've easily had a down 2000 point day today.

Nonetheless, anyone with a brain knows today was nothing but another sucker's short covering rally and has no legs.

This shit is so scary.  It really is.  My advice is to get long cash and close out long positions until the storm passes.....we got a whole lot more storm coming.

CC,

You are always an extremist, but you had it right about HOW far down it would go..I didnt think they would take it down 500, and it took a strong FED act to get her back.

I do think even without the FED cut that the market comes back to some degree..but lets call it a draw and say both parties were part right.

These inverse ETFs sure are fun in a bear market


You have that right Gunners!! Definitely a nice addition to the limited arsenal of the small investor to me at least. Never felt comfortable shorting individual stocks(although I am getting more so daily) but indexes..no problems.

 I also am happy for gold etfs...added liquidity and while some think it will be a source of hedge fund led volatility, I think they will be a source of stability. GLD owns more gold thn China does, if I red correctly...

 Anyway, America will continue to make unfunded promises and try to pay them with ever decreasing in value dollars.And not a single sign of less dependence on foreign oil in sight.



 

larry kudlow

djia futures down another 115 this morning

in for another rough day...chicago merc is trying to price in a 50 bp cut from next weeks meeting

3% rates

Oh yeah sure Americans aren't investing in stocks because of the 15% tax on gains.  Gimme a break!  How about if they eliminated the cap gains tax tomorrow people would sell their winners like crazy now that they wouldn't owe tax.  The small cap gains tax isn't inhibiting any investing.  Nice he'd rather tax hard-earned wages more.  Tax has to come from somewhere.

jt - fannie and freddie wont raise the 417k cap

they cant keep their books straight, no chance the OMB will allow them to take more money under mgmt

  You have that righ KOAJ...they have not demonstrated any skills, and I would not like seeing that at all...
 

  From an ezine: if he is correct (and he may be) any stocks on the watch list????

  Bottom line: stocks are bloody cheap. The Fed meets again on the 30th of Jan and we will likely see another 25, maybe even a 50 basis point cut, which would be a good thing. Commodity prices are starting back off as they begin to price in a US slowdown/recession and that should put a short term lid on inflation talk.

Long story short, at a minimum, we will have a very tradeable rally. I think it’s too early to tell if that rally should be sold into or not. A lot will depend on the preliminary US GDP numbers which are due out next week. If we get a decent GDP number, meaning 1.00% – 1.50% growth, along with a 50 basis point rate cut, then you’ve got the basis to support a very large rally.

GOOG down 40 bucks plus, AAPL down 25, FSLR down 25, BIDU down 20.

To think I scoffed at 300 puts on BIDU when it was almost 400..thinking it was too expensive.

Interesting that some financials are doing fine today and I didnt take the risk on MBI like mentioned, but it is almost a double off the bottom.

This is all tech today..much more than I expected.

i dont get how the financials are running unless theyve already priced in another 50bp cut

All this negativity might be signalling a bottom for the group.

Look at the builders..nice moves off the lows from a week or so ago, TOL to 19 and change..HOV over 7.50

I needed 100k to build some of these group mutual funds I wanted.

len and ryl report after the bell today and before the bell tomorrow

wonder what they;ll say

I wonder if it is worth betting against them with SRS after this pullback.  what are these homebuilders going to say?  that they think they will build a lot more this year?  no way

nevermind.  SRS is mostly commercial real estate.  still might be reflective though.