Stats are great, but you know as well as I that we entered recession this past summer......the same time this bear market started.
Mid July 2007 was when the housing market finally went kaboom. If you ask me, it should've gone kaboom back during 9/11 time, but "Maestro" Greenspan delayed the pain. Now........the pain is going to be tremendous. God help us if we get a massive terrorist attack right now.......may as well start WWIII for real, but oh yeah, "Dubya" started that one back in 2003.......not many realize it, yet.......but in time, everyone will.
the future of the world right now.
Vermeer-
Stats are great, but you know as well as I that we entered recession this past summer......the same time this bear market started.
Mid July 2007 was when the housing market finally went kaboom. If you ask me, it should've gone kaboom back during 9/11 time, but "Maestro" Greenspan delayed the pain. Now........the pain is going to be tremendous. God help us if we get a massive terrorist attack right now.......may as well start WWIII for real, but oh yeah, "Dubya" started that one back in 2003.......not many realize it, yet.......but in time, everyone will.
As for the start of WW III, it could be argued (should it occur of course), that it started with 9/11. Kind of like the terrorist attack on King Ferdinand helped create WW I.
Since we are speaking of geopolitics, I think the Israelis will, if seriously threatned by Iran, step in. Were I Jewish, I would certainly endorse the concept that there will no longer be any more slaughters of person while the world looks on. I endorse that notion and I am not Jewish, so forget the qualifier. Take as many of the anti Semites with you as you can, Israel, and you can start with Iran and work your way to Saudi Arabia as far as I am concerned. would it incovenience the west, or the entire world? Yup. So what?? World War II kind of did it for me and anti Semitism, of any origin.
I do thnk we let off the following very easy if we place the blame for this meltdown at just the feet of the Fed: realtors,mortgage brokers, investment bankers, real estate speculators etc etc etc. In fact if we put in jail everyone who knowingly defrauded the system, there would be very few mortgage brokers left.
Now now CC, don't get too depressed.
As for the start of WW III, it could be argued (should it occur of course), that it started with 9/11. Kind of like the terrorist attack on King Ferdinand helped create WW I.
Since we are speaking of geopolitics, I think the Israelis will, if seriously threatned by Iran, step in. Were I Jewish, I would certainly endorse the concept that there will no longer be any more slaughters of person while the world looks on. I endorse that notion and I am not Jewish, so forget the qualifier. Take as many of the anti Semites with you as you can, Israel, and you can start with Iran and work your way to Saudi Arabia as far as I am concerned. would it incovenience the west, or the entire world? Yup. So what?? World War II kind of did it for me and anti Semitism, of any origin.
I do thnk we let off the following very easy if we place the blame for this meltdown at just the feet of the Fed: realtors,mortgage brokers, investment bankers, real estate speculators etc etc etc. In fact if we put in jail everyone who knowingly defrauded the system, there would be very few mortgage brokers left.
Concerns about a US
recession again clouded the financial markets during the past week and
the subprime woes continued to unfold as more write-downs and depressed
earnings were reported.
The bears made their
presence felt and stock markets slumped across the globe with almost
panicky selling being encountered. This is evidenced by the steep fall
in both the MSCI World Index (-5.1%) and emerging markets (-6.4%).
Under the circumstances, the Japanese Nikkei 225 Average did relatively
well with a more modest decline of 1.8%.
The losses of the US
stock markets are mounting as illustrated by the following year-to-date
returns: Dow Jones Industrial Index: -9.5%; S&P 500 Index: -10.4%;
Nasdaq Composite Index: -12.5% and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index:
-12.8%. The latter has declined by 21.5% since its high in July 2007,
thereby now qualifying as being in a bear market as the “official”
definition of a 20% decline has been met.
Concerns about a US
recession again clouded the financial markets during the past week and
the subprime woes continued to unfold as more write-downs and depressed
earnings were reported.
The bears made their
presence felt and stock markets slumped across the globe with almost
panicky selling being encountered. This is evidenced by the steep fall
in both the MSCI World Index (-5.1%) and emerging markets (-6.4%).
Under the circumstances, the Japanese Nikkei 225 Average did relatively
well with a more modest decline of 1.8%.
The losses of the US
stock markets are mounting as illustrated by the following year-to-date
returns: Dow Jones Industrial Index: -9.5%; S&P 500 Index: -10.4%;
Nasdaq Composite Index: -12.5% and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index:
-12.8%. The latter has declined by 21.5% since its high in July 2007,
thereby now qualifying as being in a bear market as the “official”
definition of a 20% decline has been met.
Won't be any "emergency rate cut" either, cause the FOMC meets in a week anyway.
I hate being pessimistic like this, and man I hope I'm wrong tomorrow, but this just looks horrifying.
The only good thing is that there is so much negativity that a counter-trend rally is probably going to begin tomorrow, as well. But how far down the ladder? Could be 1200-2400 points lower tomorrow..........at the open.
Won't be any "emergency rate cut" either, cause the FOMC meets in a week anyway.
I hate being pessimistic like this, and man I hope I'm wrong tomorrow, but this just looks horrifying.
The only good thing is that there is so much negativity that a counter-trend rally is probably going to begin tomorrow, as well. But how far down the ladder? Could be 1200-2400 points lower tomorrow..........at the open.
Just this past Friday, soon after the closing bell in New York, the watershed event happened: Ambac lost its triple-A rating!
Fitch
slashed Ambac's rating by two notches to AA, downgraded the long-term
rating of Ambac's parent company by three notches, and said more cuts
could be on the way.
Since the
ratings of insured bonds are tied directly to the ratings of the
insurer, Fitch was also forced to take action on the 137,000 bonds that
are covered by Ambac, setting off a veritable ratings massacre in the market for municipal and mortgage-backed bonds.
based on the current market price of credit swaps (bets on future defaults), Wall Streetitselfbelieves that the chance Ambac and MBIA will avoid bankruptcy is less than one in three.
From an ezine....
Just this past Friday, soon after the closing bell in New York, the watershed event happened: Ambac lost its triple-A rating!
Fitch
slashed Ambac's rating by two notches to AA, downgraded the long-term
rating of Ambac's parent company by three notches, and said more cuts
could be on the way.
Since the
ratings of insured bonds are tied directly to the ratings of the
insurer, Fitch was also forced to take action on the 137,000 bonds that
are covered by Ambac, setting off a veritable ratings massacre in the market for municipal and mortgage-backed bonds.
based on the current market price of credit swaps (bets on future defaults), Wall Streetitselfbelieves that the chance Ambac and MBIA will avoid bankruptcy is less than one in three.
$45
trillion in the world's fastest-growing type of derivative — credit
default swaps — will be in jeopardy. Indeed, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal ("Default Fears Unnerve Markets") ...
"The
turmoil on Wall Street is beginning to rock a foundation of the
financial system: the ability of institutions to make good on their
many trades with one another.
"Today, a
struggling bond insurer, ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., will ask its
trading partners for more time as it scrambles to unwind more than $60
billion of insurance contracts it sold to financial firms but can't
fully pay off, according to people familiar with the matter. The
contracts were intended to protect Wall Street firms from losses on
mortgage securities and other debt they own.
"The
problem is that the insurer itself is teetering — with repercussions
across the financial world. Some of its trading partners, called
counterparties, already are writing off billions of dollars because of
its inability to pay ...
"This has
investors and regulators worried that, through such swaps, some market
players could spread their own problems to the wider financial system
...
"The issue
is raising broader concern among regulators and investors over what
Wall Street calls 'counterparty risk,' the danger that one party in a
trade can't pay its losses. ...
"Few envisioned a little-known bond insurer like ACA causing so much instability."
But despite this rude awakening described in the Journal, Wall Street is not asking the obvious next
question: If little-known ACA could cause so much trouble, what kind of
damage would be caused by the collapse of Ambac and MBIA, which are far
larger?
From WSJ, with additional comment from others..
$45
trillion in the world's fastest-growing type of derivative — credit
default swaps — will be in jeopardy. Indeed, according to Friday's Wall Street Journal ("Default Fears Unnerve Markets") ...
"The
turmoil on Wall Street is beginning to rock a foundation of the
financial system: the ability of institutions to make good on their
many trades with one another.
"Today, a
struggling bond insurer, ACA Financial Guaranty Corp., will ask its
trading partners for more time as it scrambles to unwind more than $60
billion of insurance contracts it sold to financial firms but can't
fully pay off, according to people familiar with the matter. The
contracts were intended to protect Wall Street firms from losses on
mortgage securities and other debt they own.
"The
problem is that the insurer itself is teetering — with repercussions
across the financial world. Some of its trading partners, called
counterparties, already are writing off billions of dollars because of
its inability to pay ...
"This has
investors and regulators worried that, through such swaps, some market
players could spread their own problems to the wider financial system
...
"The issue
is raising broader concern among regulators and investors over what
Wall Street calls 'counterparty risk,' the danger that one party in a
trade can't pay its losses. ...
"Few envisioned a little-known bond insurer like ACA causing so much instability."
But despite this rude awakening described in the Journal, Wall Street is not asking the obvious next
question: If little-known ACA could cause so much trouble, what kind of
damage would be caused by the collapse of Ambac and MBIA, which are far
larger?
I hope to dear God you're right tomorrow and that I am wrong. The very last thing the economy needs tomorrow is a down 1200- 2400 points open on the Dow.
Down 100? Care to make a puucy "gentleman's bet" on that one? I'll set the down total at -400 and say lower.
WSC-
I hope to dear God you're right tomorrow and that I am wrong. The very last thing the economy needs tomorrow is a down 1200- 2400 points open on the Dow.
Down 100? Care to make a puucy "gentleman's bet" on that one? I'll set the down total at -400 and say lower.
The following tells you all you need to know about DC's deification of a mediocre mind, Alan Greenspan. He is still revered to this day among both Democrats and Republican illiterates.
The imprimatur of the Fed chairman went a long way to
relieving concerns of derivative activity. Congress held hearings
during the 1994 derivatives maelstrom. George Soros appeared before the
House Banking Committee and stated: “There are so many [derivatives],
and some of them are so esoteric that the risks involved may not be
properly understood even by the most sophisticated of investors, and
I’m supposed to be one of them.” After Congress completed its study,
Alan Greenspan dismissed it as unnecessary. He described the risk of
derivatives as “negligible.” Congress chose to believe the testimony of
Greenspan and ignore Soros.
The following tells you all you need to know about DC's deification of a mediocre mind, Alan Greenspan. He is still revered to this day among both Democrats and Republican illiterates.
The imprimatur of the Fed chairman went a long way to
relieving concerns of derivative activity. Congress held hearings
during the 1994 derivatives maelstrom. George Soros appeared before the
House Banking Committee and stated: “There are so many [derivatives],
and some of them are so esoteric that the risks involved may not be
properly understood even by the most sophisticated of investors, and
I’m supposed to be one of them.” After Congress completed its study,
Alan Greenspan dismissed it as unnecessary. He described the risk of
derivatives as “negligible.” Congress chose to believe the testimony of
Greenspan and ignore Soros.
The next bubble to deflate may be Alan Greenspan's reputation.
Hailed as perhaps the greatest central banker who ever lived when he
left the Federal Reserve in 2006, Greenspan is under attack from
critics ranging from the New York Times to economists at the American
Enterprise Institute for his handling of the 2000-2005 housing boom.
The former Fed chairman has taken to the media to defend himself,
writing in the Wall Street Journal and appearing on network television.
"'He's had a bubble reputation that derived from the growth of US
household wealth,' said Edward Chancellor, author of 'Devil Take the
Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation'. 'As that goes down, his
standing as a superstar will suffer.'
"At stake is not only Greenspan's legacy but also the future of
policies he espoused during 18-1/2 years atop the central bank. Critics
blame his aversion to regulation and reluctance to use interest rates
to puncture asset bubbles for the boom in mortgage lending and house
prices that has since gone bust, threatening to throw the economy into
recession.
"In an interview, Greenspan said such criticism ignores limits on what regulation and monetary policy can achieve.
"Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has already moved away from the
laissez-faire approach of his predecessor by proposing new restrictions
on subprime mortgages."
Source: Rich Miller, Bloomberg.com, January 10, 2008.
The next bubble to deflate may be Alan Greenspan's reputation.
Hailed as perhaps the greatest central banker who ever lived when he
left the Federal Reserve in 2006, Greenspan is under attack from
critics ranging from the New York Times to economists at the American
Enterprise Institute for his handling of the 2000-2005 housing boom.
The former Fed chairman has taken to the media to defend himself,
writing in the Wall Street Journal and appearing on network television.
"'He's had a bubble reputation that derived from the growth of US
household wealth,' said Edward Chancellor, author of 'Devil Take the
Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation'. 'As that goes down, his
standing as a superstar will suffer.'
"At stake is not only Greenspan's legacy but also the future of
policies he espoused during 18-1/2 years atop the central bank. Critics
blame his aversion to regulation and reluctance to use interest rates
to puncture asset bubbles for the boom in mortgage lending and house
prices that has since gone bust, threatening to throw the economy into
recession.
"In an interview, Greenspan said such criticism ignores limits on what regulation and monetary policy can achieve.
"Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has already moved away from the
laissez-faire approach of his predecessor by proposing new restrictions
on subprime mortgages."
Source: Rich Miller, Bloomberg.com, January 10, 2008.
We need Spain's King Juan Carlos to tell Al to "just shut up" like he suggested to Hugo Chavez...but rest assured he will be flogging his book and trying to rescue his rep on TVs everywhere...
We need Spain's King Juan Carlos to tell Al to "just shut up" like he suggested to Hugo Chavez...but rest assured he will be flogging his book and trying to rescue his rep on TVs everywhere...
fed needs to make a 50-75 bp cut today...no bullshit
the fed govt also needs to ensure the viability of the debt insurors (MBI, ABK, SCA, AGO)...cramer was dead on
and thats it...let the mkts deleverage themselves over the next year and i can buy my house for 30% off current value (at least) and lock in a 30 yr at below 4% rates
good morning all
fed needs to make a 50-75 bp cut today...no bullshit
the fed govt also needs to ensure the viability of the debt insurors (MBI, ABK, SCA, AGO)...cramer was dead on
and thats it...let the mkts deleverage themselves over the next year and i can buy my house for 30% off current value (at least) and lock in a 30 yr at below 4% rates
fed needs to make a 50-75 bp cut today...no bullshit
the fed govt also needs to ensure the viability of the debt insurors (MBI, ABK, SCA, AGO)...cramer was dead on
and thats it...let the mkts deleverage themselves over the next year and i can buy my house for 30% off current value (at least) and lock in a 30 yr at below 4% rates
Just got the 75 bps cut.
Quote Originally Posted by KOAJ:
good morning all
fed needs to make a 50-75 bp cut today...no bullshit
the fed govt also needs to ensure the viability of the debt insurors (MBI, ABK, SCA, AGO)...cramer was dead on
and thats it...let the mkts deleverage themselves over the next year and i can buy my house for 30% off current value (at least) and lock in a 30 yr at below 4% rates
the future of the world right now.
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