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December Stock Talk Week I

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Posted: #51
Am using today as an "opportunity" to bail out of SPWR. 
 
Out at 131ish....was in at 129ish.....so a little money sliced up by the 28% ass-f--k to USam, and I guess I got a few coins for college bowl season.  Could be a hell of a lot worse, as this was 105ish a few weeks ago.
 
I just think the solar fun run is about to hit the skids.  FSLR is being investigated for insider trading.....there are "solar analyst meetings" all over the place this week.....just seems like the bubble is about to bust.
 
This China ADR Solarfun crap......what utter lunacy.
 
Enough ranting...........for now.
 
Current Long Hauls:
 
MSFT (34ish)
GTLS (26ish)
CRDC (8ish)
 
Current Short Term "Trades":
 
Short SPY x 300 (145.50)...................major ass whipping going on here, but I think some time early next year, this is well in the money, so am glad I can play the attrition game with the phonies at the liar's poker table in the stock market casino.
 
If I feel the time is right....I will add exposure to this SPY short position..............got to get beyond the bailout package (WHICH, OH BY THE WAY, DID HAPPEN) hoopla and the rate cut.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #52
Also long the US Dollar, but all the scale ins are just too damn numerous to post.
 
This is a rolling position.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #53
good work CC..you were underwater on SPWR for a long time and a profit is a profit.

CRDC is a heart attack, they dropped it 30 cents on 10k volume on a minute chart and bounced it back. You cannot get out of a large position if you needed to, but it is great to see us back higher especially after yesterdays nice move.
 
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Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Also long the US Dollar...
 
Why? ECB raising rates while the Fed is cutting rates means choppy waters for the USD, yes? 
 
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Posted: #55
Blue-
 
BOE won't be raising rates for long.  This long USD is more of a fade the public consensus easy bet thing.  The whole world is ridiculing the dollar, and when the whole world gets on one side, "you can bet your bottom dollar" that the trend is over.
 
I know common man peeps at work who go around bashing the dollar every day.....then some German A cup beanpole is busy blasting the dollar.....stuff like that puts me on the other side---same as in football betting.
 
WSC-
 
Yeah, I timed the get out on SPWR OK "for now."  But you know as well as I that the manipulators could run this thing to 200 in about 2 weeks if they so choose.  Scary.  Long is scary, short is scary.  Need inside info to effectively trade this thing.
 
Buy CRDC on pullbacks, my man, and you'll see 20ish by end of 2008.  Don't try to trade it......not enough liquidity to do it.  It's just like Chart Industries (GTLS)-----buy it, hold it, don't worry about it, make money on it, don't lose sleep about it-----can't beat that in a bear market.
 
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Posted: #56
I "think" you can "very short term trade" an SPY short as soon as the subprime bailout package announcement by GWB hits this afternoon.
 
The broad market has already priced in the rate cut, and once the bailout is publically proclaimed, I think some big sellers are going to take all this market run up to task.
 
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Posted: #57
CC,

I have plenty of CRDC, not going anywhere with this one.

Who here is holding WCG? I am embarrased to remember sell stopping my position at 23 on the stock..so I pushed and it is nearly a double from there.  
 
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Posted: #58
WSC-
 
When does this bailout crap get announced?  I want to time this right, but can't stand listening to fucking CNN or CNBC.
 
Thanks
 
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Posted: #59
I guess I should listen in to the crappola now, cause I want to hear what GWB says.
 
This could be a very nice and easy trade so long as the wording lines up correctly.
 
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Posted: #60
This "should" be an easy trade.  Like betting on rain when you hear thunder.
 
Covers Linesmen
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Posted: #61
I dunno..since I refuse to watch that garbage channel I have to see in other means.

In other news I am thinking there might be value in a VLO trade here going into the winter. Crack spreads usually improve and the stock historically does well from Dec to March..thinking some 60 strike or maybe 62.50 strike calls..  

 
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Posted: #62
VLO-
 
Hell of a run for last 5 years.
 
Looks like the 62.5 floor has held 3 times.
 
Probably a good chance winner from now until April on the common.  Know nothing about its options.
 
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Posted: #63
The bailout package announcement is "allegedly" scheduled for 1340 EST.
 
If the wording is right, then the broad market could get pummelled. 
 
Am tempted to get ahead of this announcment on another SPY short now, but want to hear the yakkety yak in case some sort of bullcrap lie is told and promised.....then that would really f--k up any peeps getting short the SPY today.
 
..............waiting..................
 
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Posted: #64
You consider the ultra short financial ETF?

If the news is positive then they bump the financials, then DUMP them if the package looks thin...
 
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Posted: #65
This is a classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
 
It's got to be really ultra positive for the smart money heavy sellers to be kept at bay.
 
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Posted: #66
I don't know how SKF trades, WSC.....never watch it.
 
I at least "hope" or "think" that I have some sort of feel for SPY, cause I follow it closely.
 
No way I can "trade" a ticker symbol unless I've watched its action for a while......just can't read the moves right otherwise.
 
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Posted: #67
this bailout package is the shits:

-no federal money
-no speculator bailout....only owner lived in homes
-everything done through the servicers
 
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Posted: #68
Yep.......but will the asshole specualtors eventually get another bailout package?
 
I sure as hell hope not, but not a damn thing would shock me.
 
BTW, did open up an SPY Short (149.6175 x "enough shares to keep me hopping"), so am ready and won't be shocked by a damn thing.
 
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Posted: #69
Wells Fargo to ready fast track subprime solution in few wks
2:16 PM ET, Dec 06, 2007 - 1 minute ago


Wells wants out...........now


 
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Posted: #70
Well, looks like my little short SPY (149.6175) new addition to the original one at 145.50 is a disaster.
 
Now I got 500 shares short and can say, I guess, that I'm "averaging down."
 
NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Well, going to leave it be.
 
The manipulators are going to bust every short sucker today, so am in the game of attrition.
 
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Posted: #71
Could get the good ol' margin call any second..........
 
F--k 'em.
 
I ain't closing.
 
F--k 'em.
 
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Posted: #72
wall i still have wcg,,bought it the same time u did i think,,got printed 35 and change so im happy,,,,,,as far as wells fargo i always thought they would come out of this better than others,,,2nite its providence over in coll. hoops and over in the redskins game
 
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Posted: #73
I will go with it..good luck to us on the games (if I can get a total from my book on the college game)

Yeah I had to leave the day I bot that WCG and got stopped out..

I like WFC quite a bit as you know...
 
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Posted: #74
I think tailing you brought you bad luck..smells like 0-2 tonite.


 
 
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Posted: #75
yeah looks like 0-2,,,been on a good roll lately,have not had an 0-2 type nite in a while,,ah fuck it ,have a few more beers and come back strong morrow
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