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    All Forums | Investments

    December Stock Talk Week I

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    Vermeer
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    Gridophiles
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    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 2, 2007 - 12:29 AM ET #1


     Start of another intresting week and month. Sound familiar? This stuff is better than any novel.

     So to recap, the ETrade deal is really a firesale or so I deduce from previous thread.

     The problem is there are many fires in many places, and with every "solution" I tend to get more and more concerned. There is a sense of quiet desperation out there.

      In truth a lot of these people are rearranging the deck chairs on their Titanics if you ask me, and rest assured, the captains will NOT go down with the ship. Just the opposite.

     Sorry for the mixed metaphors...but these are mixed up times. Lot of central bankers worried about the same thing they have been worrying about for months now:the amount and location of total bad debt.
     
     Hope everyone stays nimble this week and month.

     

     

    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.

     Start of another intresting week and month. Sound familiar? This stuff is better than any novel.

     So to recap, the ETrade deal is really a firesale or so I deduce from previous thread.

     The problem is there are many fires in many places, and with every "solution" I tend to get more and more concerned. There is a sense of quiet desperation out there.

      In truth a lot of these people are rearranging the deck chairs on their Titanics if you ask me, and rest assured, the captains will NOT go down with the ship. Just the opposite.

     Sorry for the mixed metaphors...but these are mixed up times. Lot of central bankers worried about the same thing they have been worrying about for months now:the amount and location of total bad debt.
     
     Hope everyone stays nimble this week and month.

     

     

     
    boiler-room
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 2:36 AM ET #2

    would not go near etrade,made a quick buck in it the day after the original disaster a few weeks back but these crooks are fucked,,,captains of wall street never go down with the ship,they go out with a hige buyout package instead,,drank a ton this weekend now i cant sleep,this sucks,guess i just stay up and go to work,,i got 5000 fuckin channels on direc tv but ther aint a thing on,,ill just put in rounders and  have a beer,great movie,,makes me want to go to the taj and play some poker
    Reply
    would not go near etrade,made a quick buck in it the day after the original disaster a few weeks back but these crooks are fucked,,,captains of wall street never go down with the ship,they go out with a hige buyout package instead,,drank a ton this weekend now i cant sleep,this sucks,guess i just stay up and go to work,,i got 5000 fuckin channels on direc tv but ther aint a thing on,,ill just put in rounders and  have a beer,great movie,,makes me want to go to the taj and play some poker
     
    Gridophiles
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 8:10 AM ET #3

    ETFC getting SLAMMED in premarket action.
     
    Read an interesting article over the weekend.  We got our first clue at the true valuation these banks should book on their crap paper thanks to Citadel. In their deal with ETFC, Citadel bought $3 billion worth of obligations from ETFC for $800 million, that's a write-down of 73% !!! 
     
    Off topic;  Fading every Big Ten team this year in the bowl games, with the possible exception of Ohio State, I think it's their destiny.
     
    Reply
    ETFC getting SLAMMED in premarket action.
     
    Read an interesting article over the weekend.  We got our first clue at the true valuation these banks should book on their crap paper thanks to Citadel. In their deal with ETFC, Citadel bought $3 billion worth of obligations from ETFC for $800 million, that's a write-down of 73% !!! 
     
    Off topic;  Fading every Big Ten team this year in the bowl games, with the possible exception of Ohio State, I think it's their destiny.
     
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 10:40 AM ET #4


     Stepped back onto the SKF escalator at 90.75, going to chance another ride up.The plans to "reset the resets" seems like flailing to me. I fade the financials yet again.






    Reply

     Stepped back onto the SKF escalator at 90.75, going to chance another ride up.The plans to "reset the resets" seems like flailing to me. I fade the financials yet again.






     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 11:14 AM ET #5

    Good job fellas, ETFC is either going to be sold much cheaper or just hang out lower on its own.

    That asset write down and cash infusion terms was terrible, just horrible.

    It will be fun to watch. They got themselves here by being greedy and stupid and they deserve their fate.  

    Reply
    Good job fellas, ETFC is either going to be sold much cheaper or just hang out lower on its own.

    That asset write down and cash infusion terms was terrible, just horrible.

    It will be fun to watch. They got themselves here by being greedy and stupid and they deserve their fate.  

     
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 11:56 AM ET #6


     Whew unloaded all Comcast options and gladly head for the exits at 2.9... averged in at 1.9, so taking it. Will balance out a lame RIO position still underwater...

    Reply

     Whew unloaded all Comcast options and gladly head for the exits at 2.9... averged in at 1.9, so taking it. Will balance out a lame RIO position still underwater...

     
    Gridophiles
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 12:10 PM ET #7

    ETFC;  Don't want to beat this dead horse, but I'm not sure how ETFC's current business model is sustainable.  They are paying me 5% on my money market, 12.5% to Citadel, yet loaning money out at 5.625%.  I also can't believe their customer base has increased throughout all this, especially given the fact they have some of the highest fees of any online brokerage.

    Not sure why Citadel got involved in this.  I speculate that there is something going on behind the scenes.

    Not much to like in this market, either to trade or invest in.  Good time to lay low imo.

     

     

    Reply

    ETFC;  Don't want to beat this dead horse, but I'm not sure how ETFC's current business model is sustainable.  They are paying me 5% on my money market, 12.5% to Citadel, yet loaning money out at 5.625%.  I also can't believe their customer base has increased throughout all this, especially given the fact they have some of the highest fees of any online brokerage.

    Not sure why Citadel got involved in this.  I speculate that there is something going on behind the scenes.

    Not much to like in this market, either to trade or invest in.  Good time to lay low imo.

     

     

     
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 12:27 PM ET #8


     I agree with you Grid, the whole market is gassed, and ETFC is even more so.Dead horses, both, to me

     I am locking in decent gains for the year, and watching from the sidelines for the most part. No matter who is giving the speech, I keep hearing the same thing:the US taxpayer is about to take a major, major bath, as no one can separate the speculator from the true homeowner, and Congress, as usual, will  make sure everyone shares the pain.

    Reply

     I agree with you Grid, the whole market is gassed, and ETFC is even more so.Dead horses, both, to me

     I am locking in decent gains for the year, and watching from the sidelines for the most part. No matter who is giving the speech, I keep hearing the same thing:the US taxpayer is about to take a major, major bath, as no one can separate the speculator from the true homeowner, and Congress, as usual, will  make sure everyone shares the pain.

     
    boiler-room
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 3:57 PM ET #9

    this is fuckin unreal,,, a bunch of idiots made poor choices  or were too stupid and were pushed into bad loans by greedy fuck sticks,,or u were a speculator and  were a greedy fuck as well and now i and other tax payers have to bail u out,,,,when govt. gets involved in the financial markets it is never a good idea,,,the markets will flush out the crap and bad money like it always does,,,i think one of the ways they will determine who qualifies is it has to be an owner occupied property...so people will lose the homes they bought ,big deal,most should not have even been buying the homes that they knew they could not afford anyway,,lesson learned,,,its like people from 2001 to 2006 thought it was their right to own a home,its a big responsibility,biggest most important purchase of a lifetime,,,holy shit i sound like a person adult,,,i mean lets say i had etrade stock,these fucks did the same thing as a speculative home owner and got burned by doing it,,,am i going to get the money i lost in the stock because of poor greedy decision making, maybe even criminal activity?,,,where is my bailout?....sorry ,thats just the way the market go's sometimes i would be told...now i could sue which u can bet  many of these companies will be getting sued forever because of all this shit,, but it probably will not do much,,after all when a company goes under or has trouble paying settlements,its always the common stock holder that gets paid last..ie other creditors, bond holders etc...etc... fuck these criminal douchebags
    Reply
    this is fuckin unreal,,, a bunch of idiots made poor choices  or were too stupid and were pushed into bad loans by greedy fuck sticks,,or u were a speculator and  were a greedy fuck as well and now i and other tax payers have to bail u out,,,,when govt. gets involved in the financial markets it is never a good idea,,,the markets will flush out the crap and bad money like it always does,,,i think one of the ways they will determine who qualifies is it has to be an owner occupied property...so people will lose the homes they bought ,big deal,most should not have even been buying the homes that they knew they could not afford anyway,,lesson learned,,,its like people from 2001 to 2006 thought it was their right to own a home,its a big responsibility,biggest most important purchase of a lifetime,,,holy shit i sound like a person adult,,,i mean lets say i had etrade stock,these fucks did the same thing as a speculative home owner and got burned by doing it,,,am i going to get the money i lost in the stock because of poor greedy decision making, maybe even criminal activity?,,,where is my bailout?....sorry ,thats just the way the market go's sometimes i would be told...now i could sue which u can bet  many of these companies will be getting sued forever because of all this shit,, but it probably will not do much,,after all when a company goes under or has trouble paying settlements,its always the common stock holder that gets paid last..ie other creditors, bond holders etc...etc... fuck these criminal douchebags
     
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 5:36 PM ET #10

    where the fuck is everybody,,,i post a nice rant and no one is here to respond,,oh well,, time to have some cocktails,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ravens 2nite and the mavs over in the nba
    Reply
    where the fuck is everybody,,,i post a nice rant and no one is here to respond,,oh well,, time to have some cocktails,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ravens 2nite and the mavs over in the nba
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 6:07 PM ET #11

    BR,

    I agree with you completely..BUT..what I have to say is I prefer a "bailout" to consumers versus to the companies who created the loans..so if we are bailing anyone out I would rather people be able to convert their loans into conventional types and people keep their houses (including investors) than to continue to destroy the resale market with the excess supply.


    Reply
    BR,

    I agree with you completely..BUT..what I have to say is I prefer a "bailout" to consumers versus to the companies who created the loans..so if we are bailing anyone out I would rather people be able to convert their loans into conventional types and people keep their houses (including investors) than to continue to destroy the resale market with the excess supply.


     
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 6:25 PM ET #12

     i hear u wall but how do we determine who should be bailed out?the innocent dumb couple whowas pushed into an arm just so the mortgage company can make mpore money of them,sure absolutely,,,but the fuck stick who had no money in the bank,a credit score of450 and makes 40,000 a year who took out a500,000 mortgage,no way,.the speculator who was flipping or short term investing in them,,no fuckin way,,understand the word speculate douche bags,,,,fuck it ,i dont like my rate,my payments are higher than i like em,iwant a new loan with better terms right away please.....plus i dont know if it will really truly help the housing market,,too late,no?
    Reply
     i hear u wall but how do we determine who should be bailed out?the innocent dumb couple whowas pushed into an arm just so the mortgage company can make mpore money of them,sure absolutely,,,but the fuck stick who had no money in the bank,a credit score of450 and makes 40,000 a year who took out a500,000 mortgage,no way,.the speculator who was flipping or short term investing in them,,no fuckin way,,understand the word speculate douche bags,,,,fuck it ,i dont like my rate,my payments are higher than i like em,iwant a new loan with better terms right away please.....plus i dont know if it will really truly help the housing market,,too late,no?
     
    Gridophiles
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 6:38 PM ET #13

    I also wonder how many people are so inverted on their mortgages, that they are/will choose to just walk away, instead of continually throwing money into a depreciating asset.  No freeze on their interest rates will keep them in their homes and making payments.  I think we are just scratching the surface of how ugly this could get, especially in the wake of a 2008 slowdown.
     
     
     
     
    Reply
    I also wonder how many people are so inverted on their mortgages, that they are/will choose to just walk away, instead of continually throwing money into a depreciating asset.  No freeze on their interest rates will keep them in their homes and making payments.  I think we are just scratching the surface of how ugly this could get, especially in the wake of a 2008 slowdown.
     
     
     
     
     
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 6:42 PM ET #14

     i agree,, freeze of rates only addresses small part of big mother ffffiinnn problem
    Reply
     i agree,, freeze of rates only addresses small part of big mother ffffiinnn problem
     
    Gridophiles
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 7:00 PM ET #15

    But don't get me wrong.  It really pisses me off how we reward ignorance and stupidity in this country, and take every opportunity to screw over those of us who play by the rules.  My wife and I sacrificed for years to pay off our mortgage early, and continue to live way below our means.
     
     
    Reply
    But don't get me wrong.  It really pisses me off how we reward ignorance and stupidity in this country, and take every opportunity to screw over those of us who play by the rules.  My wife and I sacrificed for years to pay off our mortgage early, and continue to live way below our means.
     
     
     
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 7:06 PM ET #16

    I am fine if the parties qualify just as if they were getting a conforming loan.

    I listened to some details and it sounds like there will be qualifications needed to get the assistance and people must be decently current etc.

    We spend more money on that disaster Iraq and there are probably more funds spent on giving SS to old farts who dont deserve it than if we give every single person who has an ARM a conversion to a conventional mortgage.

    Bigger fish to fry if you ask me.  
    Reply
    I am fine if the parties qualify just as if they were getting a conforming loan.

    I listened to some details and it sounds like there will be qualifications needed to get the assistance and people must be decently current etc.

    We spend more money on that disaster Iraq and there are probably more funds spent on giving SS to old farts who dont deserve it than if we give every single person who has an ARM a conversion to a conventional mortgage.

    Bigger fish to fry if you ask me.  
     
    boiler-room
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 7:27 PM ET #17

    i'd be interested to see what % of people will qualify,i say very low,most ,well,many  would not be able to get a conforming fixed loan in the first place i think
    Reply
    i'd be interested to see what % of people will qualify,i say very low,most ,well,many  would not be able to get a conforming fixed loan in the first place i think
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 9:42 PM ET #18


     I have absolutely no sympathy at all for the speculators. I agree, if you are actually in the house, that is one thing.But house flipping assholes who lied about their means, which in turn created specious demand:no way any taxpayer should fund their stupidity. If they can gamble with (US tax) house money, then send me a check and I will use the proceeds at my online book.No difference at all.
     

    Reply

     I have absolutely no sympathy at all for the speculators. I agree, if you are actually in the house, that is one thing.But house flipping assholes who lied about their means, which in turn created specious demand:no way any taxpayer should fund their stupidity. If they can gamble with (US tax) house money, then send me a check and I will use the proceeds at my online book.No difference at all.
     

     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 9:48 PM ET #19

    You guys are more into solar than I..what of this technical analysisof Evergreen Solar:any merit to i?

    "After a run from under $2 in 2004 to over $16 early last year, this maker, developer and marketer of solar power products in Europe and the United States has settled into a trading range of about $8.50 to $10. But the stock has been holding steady above its 200-day moving average, upside volume is improving, and so have analysts' recommendations. Positions taken now could, in just a couple of months, prove rewarding if the stock can penetrate the resistance at just over $10."

    The breakout occurred and ESLR in just three weeks ran from $10 to over $17. Profit-taking drove the stock back to under $12 but the stochastic has issued a buy signal again, and Evergreen Solar seems capable of another run to just over its prior high at $17.
    Reply
    You guys are more into solar than I..what of this technical analysisof Evergreen Solar:any merit to i?

    "After a run from under $2 in 2004 to over $16 early last year, this maker, developer and marketer of solar power products in Europe and the United States has settled into a trading range of about $8.50 to $10. But the stock has been holding steady above its 200-day moving average, upside volume is improving, and so have analysts' recommendations. Positions taken now could, in just a couple of months, prove rewarding if the stock can penetrate the resistance at just over $10."

    The breakout occurred and ESLR in just three weeks ran from $10 to over $17. Profit-taking drove the stock back to under $12 but the stochastic has issued a buy signal again, and Evergreen Solar seems capable of another run to just over its prior high at $17.
     
    wallstreetcappers
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    Posted: Dec. 3, 2007 - 11:55 PM ET #20

    Vermeer,

    I dont like ESLR, they are the runt of the group and I just dont like them at all.

    If you want a little guy try and go for that SOLF stock..has more momentum currently.

    Did I say I didnt care for ESLR?


    Reply
    Vermeer,

    I dont like ESLR, they are the runt of the group and I just dont like them at all.

    If you want a little guy try and go for that SOLF stock..has more momentum currently.

    Did I say I didnt care for ESLR?


     
    boiler-room
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2007 - 12:27 AM ET #21

    Quote Originally Posted by boiler-room:

    where the fuck is everybody,,,i post a nice rant and no one is here to respond,,oh well,, time to have some cocktails,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ravens 2nite and the mavs over in the nba
        2-0  bitches!!
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by boiler-room:

    where the fuck is everybody,,,i post a nice rant and no one is here to respond,,oh well,, time to have some cocktails,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,ravens 2nite and the mavs over in the nba
        2-0  bitches!!
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2007 - 7:00 AM ET #22

    WSC: I thoughtI recalled you not favoring that stock.I ran it through a few tech screens and it seems OK but will not go with it. Thanks.

    I dunno about the others, but my appearance here will be limited due to laptop probs this week.So I can't enjoy late rants and good picks unless posted early (ie before 2) or after 7...nice night BR and equally good rant.

     I do not see much on the NBA card tonight  like, have not got NCAA lines yet.No feel for the market...hell..



    Reply
    WSC: I thoughtI recalled you not favoring that stock.I ran it through a few tech screens and it seems OK but will not go with it. Thanks.

    I dunno about the others, but my appearance here will be limited due to laptop probs this week.So I can't enjoy late rants and good picks unless posted early (ie before 2) or after 7...nice night BR and equally good rant.

     I do not see much on the NBA card tonight  like, have not got NCAA lines yet.No feel for the market...hell..



     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2007 - 7:03 AM ET #23


     PS

    As previously mentioned just as a little holding a small exposure is STP for me. Not looking for small solar companies so much as compnaies that are optionable and may make moves in the coming weeks. Will screen SOLF.

    Reply

     PS

    As previously mentioned just as a little holding a small exposure is STP for me. Not looking for small solar companies so much as compnaies that are optionable and may make moves in the coming weeks. Will screen SOLF.

     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2007 - 7:22 AM ET #24

    Yikes missed the nice move with SOLF...a pity. Long may it run.

    Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. surged $4.25, or 26 percent, to $20.60, continuing to rise for the third day in a row after raising its outlook on Thursday.

      Anyone have any ideas regarding buying puts of areas or specific stocks? Retailers  about to  get hammered? Whatever, the downside risk is growing to me.
    Reply
    Yikes missed the nice move with SOLF...a pity. Long may it run.

    Solarfun Power Holdings Co. Ltd. surged $4.25, or 26 percent, to $20.60, continuing to rise for the third day in a row after raising its outlook on Thursday.

      Anyone have any ideas regarding buying puts of areas or specific stocks? Retailers  about to  get hammered? Whatever, the downside risk is growing to me.
     
     
    Vermeer
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    Posted: Dec. 4, 2007 - 7:43 AM ET #25

    One semi final remark this morning...I think the Fed will do at least a 50 basis point deal in a few days. How much is already priced in?
    what does everyone here think likely? And what should I/we be looking at in the short term to take advantage of what could or should be a short term upswing in the market, a short term pounding of the USD, etc etc etc


    Reply
    One semi final remark this morning...I think the Fed will do at least a 50 basis point deal in a few days. How much is already priced in?
    what does everyone here think likely? And what should I/we be looking at in the short term to take advantage of what could or should be a short term upswing in the market, a short term pounding of the USD, etc etc etc


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