December and January Stock Talk I

Question

Lets start a new thread.NICE day on CRDC, those who bot and have held through the rough waters.Stock uptrend continuing, I liked the better volume and a close on the HOD.

wallstreetcappers · Answer

Lets start a new thread.NICE day on CRDC, those who bot and have held through the rough waters.Stock uptrend continuing, I liked the better volume and a close on the HOD.

boiler-room · Answer

new thread..

Vermeer · Answer

I have been away and being unplugged is a good thing, although I damaged my brother's supply of red wine.

Looking to see the price of gold climb to 1,0000 easily, determining what to grab.

Not sure what to make of WB's quick purchase but that is his style...

Has C hit rock bottom, and should I care? Am tempted to nibble, but....

boiler-room · Answer

i think c has to be considered at this point,,,,not a huge wine fan but i do like merlot,,,,polished off a bunch of stags leap and groth recently.....,,,,feels like  a down day today

wallstreetcappers · Answer

Someone mentioned C cutting their dividend...if they do it the stock gets creamed, how could they consider cutting the dividend?

If you think the dividend stays, you buy right here yielding a 7.25 clip and forget about it. If you think they cut, you buy after the news..

wallstreetcappers · Answer

Talk about bearish on financials, read this article-GS analystThis guy thinks C cuts dividend by 40% and Merrill has a 7 buck a share loss.Yikes!

Vermeer · Answer

Glad to realize that there are other areas more interesting. I think the only financial I would feel safe with is GS

wallstreetcappers · Answer

Vermeer,&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;Yeah I agree about feeling safe, but at these levels I am more interested in a long term bargain..and maybe a yield to boot.&#xD;&#xA;&#xD;&#xA;So stocks like BAC or C or even CFC, the better yield and higher risk&#xD;&#xA;stocks but that arent going under..these bargains we will look back in&#xD;&#xA;5 yrs and kick ourselves for missing out.

KOAJ · Answer

wall - the problem with buying bac or c or mer now is how many years of pain do you want to endure before you see profits?

why not wait to confirm the uptrend unstead of trying to pick a bottom

ask bill miller about picking bottoms on homebuilders

spoke with someone at WaMu yesterday about my mortgage...she said that "we own so many damn houses now...we're not supposed to be in that business"

KOAJ · Answer

fyi - paulson is ex goldman...goldman has been three steps ahead of everyone on this whole financial crisisscary

wallstreetcappers · Answer

Koaj,Yeah that makes me think the guy is wrong on the other side..overly bearish.Somtimes you have to buy and close your eyes, those are the kind of purchases that make you the most money.If you think that C or BAC or even WM (which will cut their div for sure) are going out of business, then yeah there is no rush. If you think the market is nearing the end of this drop then you buy in pieces..buying all today doesnt make sense, but nibbling at these levels really doesnt scare me longer term.

KOAJ · Answer

you should wait a few weeks for the banks to announce Q4 write downs3rd week of jan is confession week

Vermeer · Answer

I agree Koaj..they will be yelling "bring out yer dead"that week and there are going to be some real real bodies being displayed...

boiler-room · Answer

i think wall makes an excellent point,,depending on your time frame and if ur in for the long term it is about getting huge discounts on some of these fuckers,, and down the road 3,5, 6 years from now you will be amazed at what you bought these at,,,,i mean not all of the financials,,but you have to ask yourself, is c going out of buisnes,  not a chance

boiler-room · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by KOAJ] wall - the problem with buying bac or c or mer now is how many years of pain do you want to endure before you see profits?why not wait to confirm the uptrend unstead of trying to pick a bottomask bill miller about picking bottoms on homebuildersspoke with someone at WaMu yesterday about my mortgage...she said that "we own so many damn houses now...we&#x27;re not supposed to be in that business"&#xD;&#xA;[/Quote]   i think ur right koaj its not always a good idea to pick bottoms,however, if ur waiting for confimation of an uptrend u might have waited a little to long and missed some points back on the upswing,,,,to me,c for example, i know there are more writedowns to come and the rumors of cutting of the dividend are there as well,,i think part of thi is priced in to some degree and i would live with the pain for a while, lets say it goes down to 23 or so ,,,me personally, i can live with the short term pain and hopefully i  can look back when the fucker is at 50 in 4 years,,,,,i will probably wait for the 3rd week of jan like u said and hope they get crushed and then step in

wallstreetcappers · Answer

Good conversations here.You guys all know I preach every day to wait to pick bottoms, wait until the chart turns. This philosophy matters more for TRADING to me than longer term investing.If you have done your research and feel that the investment is valid, meaning the underlying business is worthy of owning, and you feel the price is reasonable, but you still feel the stock could go lower, then you buy in increments..buy in 25% increments and if you see the chart turning and feel the bottom is in, you can purchase the balance and feel ok with the decision.We should try and determine which of the group is best to own. Personally I am not interested in a low yield broker like GS or MS, this would be a financial pure play..that gives a yield and has come down strong off the highs of the year and are in "bargain" territory.So feel free to include a stock you prefer and why you prefer it..

Gridophiles · Answer

Great conversation.  It would be even better to have had it a couple days ago BEFORE I bought UYG..........  Oh well, still thinking we get some sort of rally in the financials the first week or two of 08.  I just think most of the bad news is already priced into these stocks.  I&#x27;m also not going to read too much into today&#x27;s activity based on lower seasonal volumes.  Plus, I have to question  Goldman&#x27;s motives here as well.  If we get one ounce of positive info from C or the others, I think these things pop big.&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;ve always hated the following saying, and wanted to pound the person that ever spoke it on TV, so as I write it now, I&#x27;m jamming a number two pencil into my eye, but............ "we are closer to the bottom then we were before".&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;As far as banks, look into regional bank HBAN as a potentail buyout (WFC) in 08, plus it currently carries a 7% yeild.

claycourtlesson · Answer

Guys-&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Hope you all had a nice holiday this past week, and hope 2008 is kind to all of you.  &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Have enjoyed this forum very much.  This forum along with the ones for boxing, tennis, and rugby are all very enjoyable with intelligent people talking about gambling.  Thank god the little kids stay out of those rooms......."for now."&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Speaking of "for now," haven&#x27;t done anything as far as the stock market goes the last week or so.  Positions are:&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;LONG HAULS:&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;GTLS (26ish)&#xD;&#xA;MSFT (34ish)&#xD;&#xA;CRDC (9ish)&#xD;&#xA;US Dollar (began a "rolling" scale in about 6 weeks ago)&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;SHORT HAUL "TRADES":&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;500 shares short SPY (147ish)&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Cheers

Vermeer · Answer

As above this is a great area and one that makes me think and re think things.

The problem regarding the financial stocks is that I am not at all sure the bad news is priced in, as I think the bad news keeps growing and growing, and to this day, after all these months, I still know of no one who has claimed to know the full, enormous extent of the losses. They remain unknown...and I do not think the unknown can be fully priced in.

I also do not need to be the first in line for the true bottom. I can handle missing 10% of a move upwards...or even 20%...I do not think anyone can regularly pinpoint the exact bottom or top of a stock (or a market), and it best left to others to help determine that (at least to me). I will be happy to step in for 60% of a recovery, rather than a full 100%...

The scale of this is enormous...and think back, how many people 12 months ago forecast the already known losses, much less the other ones sure to follow??

KOAJ · Answer

i do speak to a lot of people in the industry...so as i hear, each pop in financials is another opp to get short

there will be a short squeeze but i dont think it will matter much

companies like WaMu, CFC and others who messed around with a lot of CDOs and subprimes <like Merrill> are fucked

we havent even come close to revealing all of the skeletons in everyone's closet...

what happens when consumers start defaulting on credit cards? <see COF>

what is the next leg in this coming collapse? student loans? car loans?

what happens when moody's and s&p are broken apart by the SEC for being as dirty as sell side analysts covering tech stocks in the late 90's?....when the SEC mandates competition in the debt rating world and we can finally call a spade a spade

what happens when MBIA cannot raise capital and their AAA rating goes away? forces every other company to pay up to have their debt insured...costs the company more money...less to spend on expansion and salaries

etc etc etc etc etc

Vermeer · Answer

Quite a week for Warren Buffett. Rather than climbing on board some sinking ship, he decides to cruise into troubled waters with a pristine yacht...bond insurers? What better time to compete against them? Why help them when you can eat their lunch?

I suspect he feels the same way towards troubled financials. After all, cleaning up the messes of others is not really all that much fun:why rescue a guy like Mozilo anyway? Dude ought to be in jail anyway, I doubt WB has any interest in letting him off the hook...

We are in for some miserable times, economically, politically, and geopolitically.

Among the most unsettling things of all is the recent news of British housing, just the tip of the iceberg there and in Europe.Why invest in Europe when Asia and S America are around?

You know it was a lame year when Time puts an ex KGB thug (who is busily dismantling democracy in the (new) Soviet Union as Man of the Year. If rationalized as simply a recogntion of power and influence, I suppose Stalin or Hitler would have qualified in earlier years.

Gridophiles · Answer

You guys are scaring the hell out of me, and making that 5% money market yeild at E*Trade looking pretty good right now.

Vermeer · Answer

I love dividends...if anyone has any favorite dividend stocks would love to hear of them. MLPs, etc...if one's cock is the last toy the bastards can take away from you, dividends, unlike earnings, are things that can't be "restated."

Toadyrock · Answer

BTO John Hancock closed end fund, pays ~10% of asset value annually.  I love it, recently has dropped in value, I think it is a great buying opp. &#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;Please take a look let me know what you think?

Gridophiles · Answer

&#xD;&#xA; &#xD;&#xA;This might be a good place to start:&#xD;&#xA;https://www.seekingalpha.com/article/58568-dividend-growth-continues&#xD;&#xA;and&#xD;&#xA;www.dividendaristocrats.standardandpoors.com

December and January Stock Talk I

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