Discuss Daneish's Handicapping Strategy

For those of you who are not familiar with Daneish's betting strategy, he usually takes two horses and wheels them up and down in the exacta.

3-4/all and all/3-4.

He says he has used this strategy exclusively for the past 25 years and rarely bets trifectas and never bets on a superfecta, and doesn't play Win, Place or Show. EXACTAS ONLY.

I have to admit, that I was skeptical about this strategy, particularly without monitoring the exacta payouts in each race and getting caught dick in hand in races when the fields are short. But, I find myself discussing this strategy with Mikeyp every time I have the right horse with the wrong horse on top or underneath.

Hell, I admit it, I am in this game for big payoffs and often become swayed more often than not with perceived value, meaning that I wager on horses at sizeable odds and watch them finish 3rd, 4th or 5th. Well, I get satisfaction for picking a longshot that had a chance, but then I am not cashing enough.

This has been discussed over and over, that many of us in here are fine handicappers but horseshit bettors, meaning we might have the right horse but with the wrong combinations in the exotics.

But, I'll go Daneish one further and say that with the "right horses" the trifecta and superfecta can be very expensive but very profitable. Hitting the all button in the third and/or fourth part of the wheel is essential, just like with his exacta strategy, particularly in races where there are large fields.

If, and only if, I have a substantial bankroll, what if I use Daneish's system but play the tri and super with one or two selections on top, and then back those bets up with the exacta he suggests with the top choices under the field.

Example in a 10-horse field…

$1 trifecta 3-4/all/all $200
$10 exacta all/3-4   $200

If the favorites run out then you're laughing. If the favorites constantly hit the board then you're still offsetting some of your losses, particularly when the faves run third.

I am not advocating playing it that way in every race, but in well-balanced contentious fields with money well spread on the board, wouldn't that be a nice way to enhance value?

Basically, if the $1 tri pays $400 or the exacta yields $40, you break even. If either pays more than that, then you have a chance at a substantial profit.

When I used the all button in the BC Classic at Churchill last year and Giacomo finished 4th, I was rewarded with a $8,786.20.

Comments, thoughts, suggestions?

I failed to say, that I believe Daneish is a fine handicapper and I am close to converting to his system!

i follow daneish picks every week....though my bankroll doesn't allow me the freedom to tail his plays, i look on with definite interest......

i've been trying to work out a similar idea , but way scaled down......i use outsiders with contrasting styles with my key horses, allowing me to drop out mostly speed types who will get crushed by the pace.....1st month went pretty good.....then i lost the mojo involved in picking outstanding win types as weather and track conditions altered biases.....

your tri idea clearly is viable except for.....most tracks are raping tri and super players for 25% or more...and an unwanted partner in uncle sam joins ya if ya catch a big one.....

alsways enjoy your insightful posts...keep them coming

I always play $1 tris because I also am trying to stay under Sammy's limit. My $2 super hit was actually (2) $1 supers, but I always save the losing tickets and that way I can offset the bigger tallies that come less frequently than the losses.

To Spotty…I believe Daneish always looks for possible winners or second-place finishers with value, not just winners. He may hit fewer races but the payoffs are very appealing.

His quote: "I don't play favorites"

in my opinion.......when chalk wins, its usually because the race ran as it looked on paper,,,therefore usually one of the other bet horses will join the fave in a shitty exacta........the value of racing occurs when the race itself falls apart from the way it reads........i like daneishes ideas there, i can't count the times my longshot got beat, not by the fave  but another bomb only bigger, when the faves looks beatable to me, is when i look for that nice priced runner. it seems silly to then bet him with the chalk i already disdain.......

That's an excellent point phat. There are going to be several races each day where the race "falls apart" and the inexplicable happens.

I truly believe that Daneish's system will work extremely well in lower-level claiming races where horses who have "no business being in the race" on paper, but somehow run well. That's where a lot of big prices occur.