Traver's Day 2016 Saturday 8/27

Going to be a tremendous day. Lady Eli returns. I will have some tremendous selections to share.

Just to recap. Going into last weekend the consensus story lines were; Songbird possibly not getting a 1 1/4 & California Chrome getting isolated inside with his draw and Dortmund having finally the favorable outside speed run to at last win a prized race versus someone prominent. What a joke. They the so-called experts, media, influenced by insiders for whatever motivations, get their projections advertised to establish whatever results they desire. Same as books feeding the public misguided favoritism news information and sentiment. It's called establishing group thinking. Thread lightly folks. Travers is offering lots of equity advertising to gain interest. Touting a 3-1 you have to be sick and sick in the head. The only bet that 3-1 was worthwhile with was connecting it with any double digit long-shot. Same here. That was for last week's Beholder followers. Every expert is telling you to bet against Exaggerator. I just formed this conclusion within the last hour after leaning on others for the last 48 hours. This after taking in the draw and morning-line. Every story line since the racing concluded this past weekend has been, the Travers favorite will be vulnerable and a sure, sure-bet-against. I just want to point that out. Horse racing is about probability as opposed to certainty. It doesn't matter what you think you know rather how you think. Every horse player or majority of them with their CNBC approach to thinking that their smarter and knowledgeably discerning a smart reason for their decision making are fools. I'm talking about the goofballs trying to be technical with their heads in the Racing Form. Their the same as these technical analyst clowns or these teachers at these universities who are called on to be macro-economic experts and majors but can never get a market call right. If you're playing horses and don't know how to read past performances like knowing the back of your hand than quit. You should absorb that info like second nature by now. Their telling you that a fast track sunny day and breezy, Exaggerator has no chance. The bet will be; if it rains bet against Exagg. if it's fast bet him and he will win. I'm only suggesting that as one way to think about it. Ultimately you should bet what you like. Whether it's horses moving up, improving, off a loss, out-of-the-money, identifying true overlays, you like their name, colors, connections etc. It just may be that, this Exaggerator may have one of the most exceptional running styles and moves ever. The popular belief is that no 3-year-old is going to win the Classic. It's 100% right now. I'll take that bet for two reasons maybe three. One, I'll have 0% probability. Two, this crop is definitely one of the most contentious in quite some time. And three, this move of Exaggerator's may just go down as legendary as I mentioned. And for the record, Exaggerator is not a closer. He's a deep deep deep silly stalker. Closers don't sprint tooth and nails with front runners of Grade 1 quality and tie 7 furlong track records at prestigious racetracks as he did nose for nose in a front running fashion. For the record, my original choice and who I believe is the best colt in this crop and will still be my choice, is another. I'm just going into the tank being objective and trying to get it right. Destin is the monster. I'll go huge Destin to win and save exacta to him w/Buster spread around with bombs like My Man Sam Forever d'Oro Majesto and maybe Gift Box. Yes I will spread them exotically to win with Destin singled and perhaps Exaggerator aka Buster. Del Mar & the Spa have prices coming in all over. You're an idiot to take anything short on a runner straight. You need balls to bet long-shots and the public doesn't have that. Obviously I'll be a bit conflicted with Connect being a Curlin and one of Unbridled Song's I believe lasts' and C. Clement being represented. It'll be fun either way. May the luck be with whatever I bet.                   

[Quote: Originally Posted by Midnight1] [I'm with you pretty funny and LMAO
Still you need the info and for obvious reasons/Quote]

Travers should be a great race-- ill be capping the card tonight and hope to find some nice price plays that hit.

HC-  I am from your school...  you have to pick right on the prices and play against the majority opinions in this tough, challenging game.  I have always figured one needs to be better than 70% of the other players to have fun at this game and break about even.  Better than 80% of the other bettors to make money consistently. I do feel like I am close after playing hard since 1995. Also-- for sure about the tracks-- there are some I own and some I cant figure out. 

looked at the draw-- what a wide open race       

and the card is amazing -- what a big day 

Amazing card Bomb. Going for a huge prices in the Travers, Bishop and Forego. Flint and Eli look like locks. 

Keying Baffert in the Travers and also looking at Defrong in the Kings Bishop

american freedom

How do you have any money left after the Pacific. Dork.

 

It's not his money he borrowed it from some sucker again and has no intention of paying it back.

Roused can't lose!

Thanks Bob B. Best day ever