KENTUCKY DERBY 2019

 

 JON WHITE’S KENTUCKY DERBY RANKINGS

Time to turn our attention to the Kentucky Derby. As always, we’re lucky to have top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening there. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward and he’s the preeminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here’s his Kentucky Derby rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com: 

“In the Feb. 8 edition of this newsletter, Omaha Beach debuted on my Kentucky Derby rankings. At that time I wrote: ‘The newcomer to the Top 10 this week is Omaha Beach at No. 9. After finishing second in three straight starts, the War Front colt won a seven-furlong maiden race in the slop by nine lengths at Santa Anita last Saturday. Not only was it a visually impressive performance, his final time was an excellent 1:21.02.’ 

“On March 16, Omaha Beach won a division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park by a nose. Finishing second was Game Winner. Going into the Rebel, I had Game Winner ranked No. 1. Omaha Beach was No. 8. 

“In the March 22 edition of this newsletter after the Rebel, Omaha Beach rose to No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. At that time I wrote: ‘My rankings are a reflection as to how I view a horse's chances to win the Kentucky Derby. Right now, the horse I personally think has the best chance to win the roses is Omaha Beach, which is why I ultimately decided to move him up to No. 1 this week. But let's just say Omaha Beach is in the top spot by only a nose over Game Winner.’ 

“After Game Winner's narrow defeat in the Rebel, he would go on to finish second to Roadster in the $1 million Santa Anita Derby on April 7. Following Game Winner's loss in the Santa Anita Derby, he moved down a notch on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 to No. 3. 

“As for Omaha Beach, he won last Saturday's $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn to strengthen his No. 1 ranking on my Top 10. 

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TO BE CONTINUED...

“The very instant the Arkansas Derby was over, speculation commenced as to whether Smith would opt to ride Omaha Beach or Roadster in the Kentucky Derby. Omaha Beach is Smith's choice. For Omaha Beach to have ‘Big Money’ Mike Smith aboard in the $3 million Kentucky Derby certainly is a big plus. Meanwhile, Baffert has named Florent Geroux to ride Roadster in the Run for the Roses. 

“The 35-race series in which horses earn qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby concluded last Saturday with the Arkansas Derby and Keeneland's $200,000 Lexington Stakes. Owendale won the 1 1/16-mile Lexington, defeating runner-up Anothertwistafate by 1 3/4 lengths. Sueno finished third. 

“As of today, no one from the Lexington has enough points to start in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4. Anothertwistafate has 38 points and Sueno 32 points to rank 23rd and 24th, respectively, on the Kentucky Derby points standings. Owendale is 29th with 20 points. 

“The number of points required at this time to start in the Kentucky Derby is 40. Spinoff and Bodexpress each have 40, but Spinoff gets preference to start because of his $224,000 in nonrestricted stakes earnings compared to Bodexpress' $188,000. Since the points system was instituted in 2013, Mo Tom's 32 were the most points required to start in the Kentucky Derby. 

“Spinoff currently is No. 19 on the Kentucky Derby points standings, while Bodexpress is No. 21. In addition to the 19 horses who have qualified to start in this year's Kentucky Derby because they have accumulated the most points, the 20th and final spot goes to Master Fencer, who qualified via what is called the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. 

Due in large measure to Anothertwistafate's iffy Kentucky Derby points situation following his defeat in the Lexington, he exits my Top 10 this week. His defection opened the door for Fountain of Youth Stakes winner Code of Honor to move back onto the Top 10 at No. 9. Code of Honor will be going into the Kentucky Derby off a third behind Maximum Security and Bodexpress in the $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream on March 30. 

“Long Range Toddy ranked No. 7 last week, but he tumbles to No. 10 this week after he finished sixth, nearly 15 lengths behind Omaha Beach, in the Arkansas Derby. I did not drop Long Range Toddy off the Top 10 this week because there is a possibility he just did not care for the sloppy track in the Arkansas Derby. He had never raced on a wet track before. Long Range Toddy did show what he's capable of doing on a fast track when he won a division of the Rebel by a neck over Improbable. 

“Because War of Will had a terrific workout last Saturday at Keeneland, five furlongs in a 59.00 seconds, fastest of 44 works at the distance, I have moved him up a notch this week to No. 4. Trained by Mark Casse, War of Will finished ninth as the 4-5 favorite in the $1 million Louisiana Derby on March 23. War of Will abruptly lost his footing behind in the first few strides of the Louisiana Derby, then came out of the race with a strained patellar ligament, according to Casse. But War of Will now has had two sharp workouts since the Louisiana Derby. He also worked four furlongs in :48.80 at Keeneland on April 6. 

“Prior to War of Will's Louisiana Derby debacle, he had never been beaten when racing on the dirt. He won a maiden race on the dirt at Churchill last Nov. 24 when the track was sloppy. War of Will then took a pair of stakes races on the dirt in New Orleans. He won the Lecomte by four lengths on Jan. 19 and Risen Star by 2 1/4 lengths on Feb. 16. Two of his victims in the Risen Star were Owendale and Plus Que Parfait. Owendale finished eighth in the Risen Star before winning the Lexington. Plus Que Parfait finished 13th in the Risen Star, then won the $2.5 million UAE Derby. 

“Here are this week's rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet: 

1. Omaha Beach (1)
2. Maximum Security (2)
3. Game Winner (3)
4. War of Will (5)
5. Roadster (4)
6. Improbable (6)
7. Tacitus (9)
8. Vekoma (10)
9. Code of Honor (NR)
10. Long Range Toddy (7)”

ENJOY, B*STARDS!

I am happy and also a bit surprised to see War of Will move up to  #4 on Mr Whites chart. 

Thanks for posting, Hawk. VET.....i AM ALSO surprised about WOW moving to 4. However, look at his performances.......has he yet to run his race? Maybe. TONS of reading between the lines this year. AlSO SURPRISED ABOUT THE HIGH RANKING OF GAME WINNER AND TODDY