GP Florida Derby and Rainbow 6 day 3/31

Gulfstream Saturday 3/31/18

Note the early post time of 11:30am 

Weather looking good so far so don’t expect surface changes

I have capped for fast and firm and I play for large pari-mutuel payouts and try to avoid chalk so I don’t hit much FYI. 

Race 1-  #1 Two Pops 10-1 ml  really could be any type off the 4 month layoff after a speed and fade try against way tougher than these at CD in Nov. With natural 2 to 3 yr old speed progression, decent works at track for Romans, and a weak field, this colt worth a win bet and a price key to the early Pick 5. $20 Win and $.50 cent pick 5  1/3,7,9,12/1,3,5/1,3/1,8  Cost $24

Race 2- #7 Casa Bonita 8-1 ml gets the needed class drop to maiden claimers for third lifetime start. Should wake up against this level and be running late on a turf course that has been much kinder to closers than past years. $20 Win and if I lose race 1 then starting a pick 4 here 3,7,9,12/1,3,5/1,3/1,8  Cost $24

Race 3- #3 Jaiden’s Best--  is “best” bet of the day 12-1 ml   This win machine 6yr old gelding isn’t done yet. Coming off a couple lack luster performances and now gets a big m/l and hopefully he is overlooked. Irad jumps on first of the claim for top local outfit after breaking slow and chasing a super soft pace at 7 furlongs. $50 Win and Place   $5 ex box 1-3-5

Race 4- #1 Therapist 3-1 ml   short field for this 150k 3yr old stake. Think the 3 and 4 will duke it out early and although one or both look like they can hold on for a win I like #1 to sit in back on rail and try to circle the field on the last turn.  $20 Win

Race 5- #1 Amertume 3-1 ml  Pletcher has a talented grass filly. Stalked a real pace at 1 1/16 last out and should appreciate the cut back to a mile. Should get a dream trip on or right behind the lead in race that doesn’t seem to have any pace players. $20 Win

Race 6- #7 Second illusion 10-1ml   6 furlong bottom level maiden claimer loaded with cheap 5.5 furlong pace.. has the makings of a meltdown race with a mid pack stalker blowing by late. Only a few fit that profile and the #7 looks primed for a score after a 3 and 2 in her two lifetime tries which she has shown she can close late. $20 Win    $5 ex 5,7/3,4,5,7,11      $1 pick 3--  3-4-5-7-11/1-5-7-8/3-4

Race 7- #8 Daddysneverready 15-1ml  is a first time starter and will be overlooked as the 1-5-7 will be pounded in this turf route. Could get last – no clue.  But I am assuming 20-1 plus off odds and by Scat Daddy out of a More than Ready mare this Weaver trainee is worth a bet $20 Win

Race 8- #3 Mr. Jordan 8-1ml   I can’t ever bet always dreaming again after watching him fade with easy trips after his derby win in the slop.  Irish War Cry at least appears to still have fight left in him so ill use him the exotics. Weak field for a Grade 2 mile though.  Mr. Jordan got his screws tightened in a 6.5 sprint and may finally get a win at GP. $20 Win #3    $10 ex box 3-4

Start of rainbow 6  Playing $1,080 ticket and praying

Race 9- #5 CC Rider 15-1 ml is my bomb of the day  gets Lasix and turf for 2 lifetime start after breaking slow and fading late vs some fast dirt maidens. Got in a turf work last week and draws Johnny V to ride. Using many others for my deep rainbow 6 ticket also.  $20 win  .20 cent rainbow six  2-3-5-6-7/2-3-6-9-10/2-3-10/2-4-9/2-3-7-8/1-4-6-7-8-9 cost $1,080

Race 10- #2  Richard the Great  12-1 ml was dismal last out at 6.5 in a grade 3 but worked back well and  ran a huge race at 7 furlongs in the past at GP and this race is wide open on paper. $20 win

Race 11- #3 Stormy Victoria 4-1 ml  has found a home on the GP turf running career best numbers. Needs pace to run at but looks to be enough with the 2-4-5 up front. $20 win

Race 12- #4 Cache 8-1ml should appreciate the stretch out and will hope to carve out a trip against some fast pace types. I expect a pace meltdown late and Leparoux can time a ride.  $20 Win  $5 ex box 2-4-9

Race 13- #7 Bigger Picture 6-1ml  loves the mile and half distance and figures to be right their with all the other logical contenders in the end. $20 Win

Race 14- #7 Hofburg 20-1  came back to the races and handled a decent maiden field pretty easily. Steps up to ultimate top level but doesn’t make sense Mott would enter this one if he didn’t fancy his chances to get a piece. If he can stalk the pace types and the pace types actually run fast early unlike they did last time then a stalker/closer will win this race. The #9 Mississippi may get the trip also stalking on the outside.  $20 Win on #7 and a $1 tri 6-7-8-9/6-7-8-9/1-4-6-7-8-9

Well I'm alive to stacks.  That price in leg one was big. If a bomb beats me in the Fla Derby so be it. What a fricken sweat I have going. One F ing time please. 

 9k smack but still feel a little miffed my bomb hofburg got 2nd. That would have been semi life changing. I played deep for a piece and got lucky. 

just notcied no tax liability also-- that new paramutual tax law is huge. Last year i would have gotten a w-2 G