Fifteen Kentucky Derby winners have come out of this race,
so if you’re doing the math, the winner of the 2019 of the FLA Derby has a 10.3%
chance of winning the 145th edition of the big race. More recently, Orb
(2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017) came out of this one as
winners going on to win the first Saturday of May.
A decent field in place, led by Code of Honor, winner of the
Fountain of Youth, contenders Hidden Scroll, Bourbon War, and, slightly under-the-radar
Maximum Security offer promise of making this a contentious race.
Let’s see:
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Florida Derby 2019
G-1, $1 million, 1-1/8 miles
Fifteen Kentucky Derby winners have come out of this race,
so if you’re doing the math, the winner of the 2019 of the FLA Derby has a 10.3%
chance of winning the 145th edition of the big race. More recently, Orb
(2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017) came out of this one as
winners going on to win the first Saturday of May.
A decent field in place, led by Code of Honor, winner of the
Fountain of Youth, contenders Hidden Scroll, Bourbon War, and, slightly under-the-radar
Maximum Security offer promise of making this a contentious race.
#1 Hidden Scroll…….It’s
not often when a still maturing 3-year old makes such a big impression in just
his second race, a major stakes, but that’s what this son of Hard Spun did in
the FOY. He led from the gate, after being bumped from the get-go, before
getting passed, finishing 4th just 3 lengths behind winner Code of
Honor. You could argue that he pooped out with some saying he might be a
shorter distance specialist. However, any thought of his not going today’s
1-1/18 miles was tabled as he wired (in the slop) in his debut race out winning
by a whopping 14 lengths. Castellano and Mott combine. They’re just 8% wins
together in the last two years, but they have the horse, who should be up to
the task.
#2 Current……A
Pletcher charge with great promise as a 2-year old, the colt has one race as a
three-year old finishing 3rd in a $100K affair at Gulfstream. At
15-1 on the ML, don’t let the odds scare you off for at least some
consideration underneath, as any son of Curlin, and one trained by Todd, should
not be dismissed for at least part, if not all. Good work coming in. Franco
rides.
#3 Harvey Wallbanger…..He
upset in the Holy Bull against a pretty bland field, but there is talent. He is
a legit closer in a race that promises pace, so take a look-see. Trainer McPeek
is good at getting the young ones ready and jockey Brian Hernandez can mix it
up. One note…..he beat Sunland Derby winner Cutting Humor in a two-year old
race, if that figures for you. 15-1 ML.
#1 Hidden Scroll…….It’s
not often when a still maturing 3-year old makes such a big impression in just
his second race, a major stakes, but that’s what this son of Hard Spun did in
the FOY. He led from the gate, after being bumped from the get-go, before
getting passed, finishing 4th just 3 lengths behind winner Code of
Honor. You could argue that he pooped out with some saying he might be a
shorter distance specialist. However, any thought of his not going today’s
1-1/18 miles was tabled as he wired (in the slop) in his debut race out winning
by a whopping 14 lengths. Castellano and Mott combine. They’re just 8% wins
together in the last two years, but they have the horse, who should be up to
the task.
#2 Current……A
Pletcher charge with great promise as a 2-year old, the colt has one race as a
three-year old finishing 3rd in a $100K affair at Gulfstream. At
15-1 on the ML, don’t let the odds scare you off for at least some
consideration underneath, as any son of Curlin, and one trained by Todd, should
not be dismissed for at least part, if not all. Good work coming in. Franco
rides.
#3 Harvey Wallbanger…..He
upset in the Holy Bull against a pretty bland field, but there is talent. He is
a legit closer in a race that promises pace, so take a look-see. Trainer McPeek
is good at getting the young ones ready and jockey Brian Hernandez can mix it
up. One note…..he beat Sunland Derby winner Cutting Humor in a two-year old
race, if that figures for you. 15-1 ML.
#4 Bourbon War……I
wouldn’t call him a wiseguy pick at 7/2 ML, but he was closing hard in the FOY
while taking the overland route in the 6-path, and with the expected pace, that
should figure. Other points for score, he’s out of Tapit, gets Ortiz Jr. and
added real estate. The colt has been a bit of a gawker, but now is the time of
year when the brain of a 3-year old starts to mature. Note, he also beat
Cutting Humor, if that counts for you. Maybe we’ll see him knocking heads with
Harvey Wallbanger near the end?
#5 Everfast……I
love Take Charge Indy colts, and this guy finished second in the Holy Bull.
However, take a look at his speed figures with his 18+ L loss in the FOY a clue.
I don’t think he rates with these. 20-1 on the ML with underachiever Landeros
in the sack for Dale Romans.
#6 Hard Belle…..They
have raced this one 13 times already, which is like having 60,000 miles on a set of
tires in six months. They can only hope to steal this on the front end as this
one wreaks of cheap speed and a set up for a fast pace. 50-1 on the ML with
great reasons.
#7 Maximum Security……If
there is a wiseguy in this one, albeit he is just 9/2 on the ML, methinks it’s
him. Coming out of two $50K O/C races, he’s never gone more than 7F, but his
grand-pappy was Street Cry and his Dad, New Year’s Day, won the BC Juve in 2013
for Baffert in grand closing style coming from behind to beat Havana. He’s
undefeated in three races. Trainer Servis is killing it here…..45% wins n 74
races combing for 33% wins with jockey Saez. I am not saying to ignore his
three-race career vs. the competition he’s faced, but this could be your
winner.
#4 Bourbon War……I
wouldn’t call him a wiseguy pick at 7/2 ML, but he was closing hard in the FOY
while taking the overland route in the 6-path, and with the expected pace, that
should figure. Other points for score, he’s out of Tapit, gets Ortiz Jr. and
added real estate. The colt has been a bit of a gawker, but now is the time of
year when the brain of a 3-year old starts to mature. Note, he also beat
Cutting Humor, if that counts for you. Maybe we’ll see him knocking heads with
Harvey Wallbanger near the end?
#5 Everfast……I
love Take Charge Indy colts, and this guy finished second in the Holy Bull.
However, take a look at his speed figures with his 18+ L loss in the FOY a clue.
I don’t think he rates with these. 20-1 on the ML with underachiever Landeros
in the sack for Dale Romans.
#6 Hard Belle…..They
have raced this one 13 times already, which is like having 60,000 miles on a set of
tires in six months. They can only hope to steal this on the front end as this
one wreaks of cheap speed and a set up for a fast pace. 50-1 on the ML with
great reasons.
#7 Maximum Security……If
there is a wiseguy in this one, albeit he is just 9/2 on the ML, methinks it’s
him. Coming out of two $50K O/C races, he’s never gone more than 7F, but his
grand-pappy was Street Cry and his Dad, New Year’s Day, won the BC Juve in 2013
for Baffert in grand closing style coming from behind to beat Havana. He’s
undefeated in three races. Trainer Servis is killing it here…..45% wins n 74
races combing for 33% wins with jockey Saez. I am not saying to ignore his
three-race career vs. the competition he’s faced, but this could be your
winner.
#8 Bodexpress….As
the name implies, he is out of electric Bodemeister, but no Bodemiester is he.
A maiden after four races, the boy is 30-1. A win would be a shocker.
#9 Code of Honor…….Shug
and Johnny V combine to run a horse that is the real deal, but maybe not today,
if the closers can get to him. Coming off his best speed figure after his win in
the FOY, he is up against even more talented colts today. Questions for his
backers include, “Can he improve with the added panel?” and “Can he handle a
pace that is likely faster than the one in the FOY?” Shug has a reputation of
getting his youngsters to improve with every race, so let’s see. The likely fave
at 3-1 ML, his work has been outstanding for this one.
#10 Union’s Destiny…..Figures
to improve with added distance, but I cannot see it happening today with this
company.
#11 Garter and Tie…..Not
much here to chew on, but he did finish 4th in the Holy Bull just
4-3/4 back and he has decent local connections in Sanchez and Nicks. Blinkers
off might help, but I can’t see it....no pun intended.
My picks:
While I love the closers in this, I have to go with the two
chalks, Code of Honor and Hidden Scroll.
#9 Code of Honor to
win…..I think he gets well-rated in this. He might not take the lead, but a
stalk and pounce might do the job.
$20 exacta straight: 9-1
$12 exacta straight: 1-9
$10 exacta wheel: 9/3,,4, 7
$6 exacta wheel: 1/3,4,7
#8 Bodexpress….As
the name implies, he is out of electric Bodemeister, but no Bodemiester is he.
A maiden after four races, the boy is 30-1. A win would be a shocker.
#9 Code of Honor…….Shug
and Johnny V combine to run a horse that is the real deal, but maybe not today,
if the closers can get to him. Coming off his best speed figure after his win in
the FOY, he is up against even more talented colts today. Questions for his
backers include, “Can he improve with the added panel?” and “Can he handle a
pace that is likely faster than the one in the FOY?” Shug has a reputation of
getting his youngsters to improve with every race, so let’s see. The likely fave
at 3-1 ML, his work has been outstanding for this one.
#10 Union’s Destiny…..Figures
to improve with added distance, but I cannot see it happening today with this
company.
#11 Garter and Tie…..Not
much here to chew on, but he did finish 4th in the Holy Bull just
4-3/4 back and he has decent local connections in Sanchez and Nicks. Blinkers
off might help, but I can’t see it....no pun intended.
My picks:
While I love the closers in this, I have to go with the two
chalks, Code of Honor and Hidden Scroll.
#9 Code of Honor to
win…..I think he gets well-rated in this. He might not take the lead, but a
stalk and pounce might do the job.
i had Bourbon War. For second, the hockey guy, Eddie Olczyk, had Bodemeister SECOND. He called it, and IT HAPPENED. That 30-1 shot (60-1 at post time) sent exactas, and trifectas through the roof! Wished it could have been mine....
i had Bourbon War. For second, the hockey guy, Eddie Olczyk, had Bodemeister SECOND. He called it, and IT HAPPENED. That 30-1 shot (60-1 at post time) sent exactas, and trifectas through the roof! Wished it could have been mine....
thanks sir.....sometimes it pays to check into the breeding of the unknown young ones. Maximum Security's Dad, New Year's Eve, broke was injured in December of his 2-year old year, but had enough of a track record to score some decent sire points. Perhaps New Year's Eve would have been a Derby contender in 2013-14 had he not been hurt.
Quote Originally Posted by JOHNNY_ODAE:
Mikey!!! You nailed it with your write up on #7
thanks sir.....sometimes it pays to check into the breeding of the unknown young ones. Maximum Security's Dad, New Year's Eve, broke was injured in December of his 2-year old year, but had enough of a track record to score some decent sire points. Perhaps New Year's Eve would have been a Derby contender in 2013-14 had he not been hurt.
Also, for drinks, The Bar at the Peninsula Hotel; Cindy's at 12 S Michigan Ave; Redhead Piano Bar on Ontario St......and about 40 other places I could name.
Quote Originally Posted by vetdrm:
Hey Mike.
Going to Chicago next weekend .Dinner at Gibsons on Rush St,.
Staying at the Hyatt in Streeterville Can you recommend any good jazz clubs within walking distance of either.
Or any other places around you think are worth checking out.Thanks
VET> ANDY's on Hubbard Street is one of my favorites for jazz.
Also, for drinks, The Bar at the Peninsula Hotel; Cindy's at 12 S Michigan Ave; Redhead Piano Bar on Ontario St......and about 40 other places I could name.
i had Bourbon War. For second, the hockey guy, Eddie Olczyk, had Bodemeister SECOND. He called it, and IT HAPPENED. That 30-1 shot (60-1 at post time) sent exactas, and trifectas through the roof! Wished it could have been mine....
Helluva a call on Bodexpress. I didn't think the hor
se was worth a darn, but it set up nice for him at 70-1. Good for Eddie.....
Quote Originally Posted by The Hawk:
i had Bourbon War. For second, the hockey guy, Eddie Olczyk, had Bodemeister SECOND. He called it, and IT HAPPENED. That 30-1 shot (60-1 at post time) sent exactas, and trifectas through the roof! Wished it could have been mine....
Helluva a call on Bodexpress. I didn't think the hor
se was worth a darn, but it set up nice for him at 70-1. Good for Eddie.....
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