The 17 hole has NEVER WON A DERBY = BLAH , BLAH , BLAH .... Streaks are meant to be broken .....The early money is avoiding SOLOMINI like the Plague ..GOOD FOR ME/US
NO WORSE THAN 2ND IN ALL 6 RACES... 5 OF THOSE 6 were STAKES RACES.... lncluding 4 Grade 1's ...Been the chalk or 2nd choice in 5 of 6 ...
Predict he will love the added distance and could be FLYING LATE .. IF Thats the Case the tote board will. Low up ...
PRATT / BAFFERT COMBO in the MONEY 22 OF 35 STARTS
FLAVIEN PRATT is one of my FAVORITE JOCKEYS ... Often Wins or comes in the money when the horse has no business doing so .... HOWEVER this HORSE has loads of CLASS ....
EXOTICS TO FOLLOW
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
$ 40 TO WIN ON
# 17. SOLOMINI
Morning line 30-1
Current odds as of friday night 67-1
Guessed final odds 40-1
MY ODDS 15-1 = FANTASTIC VALUE
The 17 hole has NEVER WON A DERBY = BLAH , BLAH , BLAH .... Streaks are meant to be broken .....The early money is avoiding SOLOMINI like the Plague ..GOOD FOR ME/US
NO WORSE THAN 2ND IN ALL 6 RACES... 5 OF THOSE 6 were STAKES RACES.... lncluding 4 Grade 1's ...Been the chalk or 2nd choice in 5 of 6 ...
Predict he will love the added distance and could be FLYING LATE .. IF Thats the Case the tote board will. Low up ...
PRATT / BAFFERT COMBO in the MONEY 22 OF 35 STARTS
FLAVIEN PRATT is one of my FAVORITE JOCKEYS ... Often Wins or comes in the money when the horse has no business doing so .... HOWEVER this HORSE has loads of CLASS ....
These 6 should be 12-1 or less according to my numbers
HOWEVER I AM NOT BETTING THESE HORSES FLAT TO WIN ...
I DONT SEE THE VALUE !!!!!
THEY WILL BE USED ON TOP OF MY 5 WIN BET HORSES IN THE EXOTICS ..
#`7 JUSTIFY My Odds 6-1 current odds 7-2
I get it , he is 3 for 3 ... Heavy chalk in all 3 ...But only 1 of them was a stakes race and believe this horse will be way kver bet .....I would want 7-1 or better before a win bet would be Justified ..lol.....
16 MAGNUM MOON MY ODDS 8-1 Current odds 13-1
Could make a strong case to bet him at 13-1 ...4 wins in 4 starts ...beat my top Bomber Solomini twice ....SAEZ / PLETCHER have been in the money 61 of 110 starts ( 28 wins) ....guessing he will go off around 10-1 ....
6. GOOD MAGIC MY ODDS 9-1 ` Current odds 8-1
4 of 5 starts are stakes races ....i NEVER IGNORE JOSE ORTIZ / CHAD BROWN COMBO that has been in the money 77 of 117 starts ....The MRS loaded up on this one ...
5. AUDIBLE. MY ODDS 10-1. Current odds 6-1
Has won last 4 , but i think he is being over bet ....
I am NOT a big JAVIER CASTELLANO FAN ....Although this combo has been in the money 74 of 126.....
11. BOLT D'ORO MY ODDS 11-1 current odds 9-1
Castellano jumps ship ...New rider is Victor Espinoz.....Loser in last 3 starts ....beaten by Solomini in November ...
14 MENDELSSOHN. MY ODDS 12-1. CURRENT ODDS 5-1
Way over bet according to my numbers ...Last 3 wins have been impressive ....
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
TIER 1 HORSES
These 6 should be 12-1 or less according to my numbers
HOWEVER I AM NOT BETTING THESE HORSES FLAT TO WIN ...
I DONT SEE THE VALUE !!!!!
THEY WILL BE USED ON TOP OF MY 5 WIN BET HORSES IN THE EXOTICS ..
#`7 JUSTIFY My Odds 6-1 current odds 7-2
I get it , he is 3 for 3 ... Heavy chalk in all 3 ...But only 1 of them was a stakes race and believe this horse will be way kver bet .....I would want 7-1 or better before a win bet would be Justified ..lol.....
16 MAGNUM MOON MY ODDS 8-1 Current odds 13-1
Could make a strong case to bet him at 13-1 ...4 wins in 4 starts ...beat my top Bomber Solomini twice ....SAEZ / PLETCHER have been in the money 61 of 110 starts ( 28 wins) ....guessing he will go off around 10-1 ....
6. GOOD MAGIC MY ODDS 9-1 ` Current odds 8-1
4 of 5 starts are stakes races ....i NEVER IGNORE JOSE ORTIZ / CHAD BROWN COMBO that has been in the money 77 of 117 starts ....The MRS loaded up on this one ...
5. AUDIBLE. MY ODDS 10-1. Current odds 6-1
Has won last 4 , but i think he is being over bet ....
I am NOT a big JAVIER CASTELLANO FAN ....Although this combo has been in the money 74 of 126.....
11. BOLT D'ORO MY ODDS 11-1 current odds 9-1
Castellano jumps ship ...New rider is Victor Espinoz.....Loser in last 3 starts ....beaten by Solomini in November ...
14 MENDELSSOHN. MY ODDS 12-1. CURRENT ODDS 5-1
Way over bet according to my numbers ...Last 3 wins have been impressive ....
Doubleup, I love your comments, you think a lot like I do, although I don't agree with everything you are saying, a lot makes a ot of sense to me This derby is more wide open than recent ones, hopefullyrain won't be an issue, if it is, you must play my boy jack (yes I know his current odds are WAY too low here), I do think Magnun Moon has big chance, can he really go off at double digits? I thought Hoffberg would be a "wise guy" horse, wow at 20-1 or better, I also agree will be absolutely flying at the ende, hopefully track condition won't impede him. Justify is very talented, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he wins, but he has never run against more than 6 horses in any race, this is a bigger factor than you think, first time on the big stage, could be the real deal, but will be 3-1 or less in this big and very good field. Yes he must be in exotics, but shlould be played to be beat. Mendelssen will be overbet, very often, all this travel doesnt bode well, only in saver exotics for me at 5-1or so. Watch out for Good Magic and Vino Rosso, both in very sneaky good form. Best of luck!
Doubleup, I love your comments, you think a lot like I do, although I don't agree with everything you are saying, a lot makes a ot of sense to me This derby is more wide open than recent ones, hopefullyrain won't be an issue, if it is, you must play my boy jack (yes I know his current odds are WAY too low here), I do think Magnun Moon has big chance, can he really go off at double digits? I thought Hoffberg would be a "wise guy" horse, wow at 20-1 or better, I also agree will be absolutely flying at the ende, hopefully track condition won't impede him. Justify is very talented, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he wins, but he has never run against more than 6 horses in any race, this is a bigger factor than you think, first time on the big stage, could be the real deal, but will be 3-1 or less in this big and very good field. Yes he must be in exotics, but shlould be played to be beat. Mendelssen will be overbet, very often, all this travel doesnt bode well, only in saver exotics for me at 5-1or so. Watch out for Good Magic and Vino Rosso, both in very sneaky good form. Best of luck!
Doubleup, I love your comments, you think a lot like I do, although I don't agree with everything you are saying, a lot makes a ot of sense to me This derby is more wide open than recent ones, hopefullyrain won't be an issue, if it is, you must play my boy jack (yes I know his current odds are WAY too low here), I do think Magnun Moon has big chance, can he really go off at double digits? I thought Hoffberg would be a "wise guy" horse, wow at 20-1 or better, I also agree will be absolutely flying at the ende, hopefully track condition won't impede him. Justify is very talented, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he wins, but he has never run against more than 6 horses in any race, this is a bigger factor than you think, first time on the big stage, could be the real deal, but will be 3-1 or less in this big and very good field. Yes he must be in exotics, but shlould be played to be beat. Mendelssen will be overbet, very often, all this travel doesnt bode well, only in saver exotics for me at 5-1or so. Watch out for Good Magic and Vino Rosso, both in very sneaky good form. Best of luck!
Great to hear from u Brother ...appreciate ur time ...
I see my Boy Jack is breed for the wet track ....Cant believe he is down to 5-1 .... the Biggest Mush at my OTB is all over this horse ...Have only seen this dude win 3 times in the last 5 years ...lol ...which means nothing ...but he has $300 to win and loaded up on him in the exotics .....
Justify racing in those smaller fields is a major concern for me as well .....
HOFBURG at 20-1 or better looks great , just like you I thought the so called sharps would be all over ..... Solid capper friend of mine has been on fire over the last 2 months , and HOFBURG is his choice ...
MAGNUM Moon at double digits would be worth some late money.....
Best of luck Brother ...May you hit BIG
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
Quote Originally Posted by howzuck:
Doubleup, I love your comments, you think a lot like I do, although I don't agree with everything you are saying, a lot makes a ot of sense to me This derby is more wide open than recent ones, hopefullyrain won't be an issue, if it is, you must play my boy jack (yes I know his current odds are WAY too low here), I do think Magnun Moon has big chance, can he really go off at double digits? I thought Hoffberg would be a "wise guy" horse, wow at 20-1 or better, I also agree will be absolutely flying at the ende, hopefully track condition won't impede him. Justify is very talented, and I wouldn't at all be surprised if he wins, but he has never run against more than 6 horses in any race, this is a bigger factor than you think, first time on the big stage, could be the real deal, but will be 3-1 or less in this big and very good field. Yes he must be in exotics, but shlould be played to be beat. Mendelssen will be overbet, very often, all this travel doesnt bode well, only in saver exotics for me at 5-1or so. Watch out for Good Magic and Vino Rosso, both in very sneaky good form. Best of luck!
Great to hear from u Brother ...appreciate ur time ...
I see my Boy Jack is breed for the wet track ....Cant believe he is down to 5-1 .... the Biggest Mush at my OTB is all over this horse ...Have only seen this dude win 3 times in the last 5 years ...lol ...which means nothing ...but he has $300 to win and loaded up on him in the exotics .....
Justify racing in those smaller fields is a major concern for me as well .....
HOFBURG at 20-1 or better looks great , just like you I thought the so called sharps would be all over ..... Solid capper friend of mine has been on fire over the last 2 months , and HOFBURG is his choice ...
MAGNUM Moon at double digits would be worth some late money.....
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