Stock market

Dont get fixated on money supply as a sole reason for a bubble, I dont think it is alone a reason.

Banks arent lending the money, they are buying treasuries and holding them in excess reserves..paying nothing on it and earning a low risk free rate..so all this money printing isnt creating inflation at all..so blaming the printing press as a bubble might have been true in the past but now it for sure is not.

Inflation to me is excess demand over supply...and in the past money printing passed through and created more demand and that i the theory the FED is erroneously floating. If the money stops at the first level of circulation then it does not pass through and create inflation..and that is where we are now.

Our UE number is low because the jobs are part time and/or low pay jobs..and the number of people looking is shrinking so the pool is smaller, thus the UE number is phony low..it isnt real.

And since the jobs being created are lower paying, there is no pass through for consumer demand..people are not saving or spending because they are in debt and not making enough to afford to buy, and credit creation is ZERO..banks arent lending, so the consumer cannot spend on credit and they arent making more discretionary income so demand is not there.

The only inflation is the stock market and high tech high demand RE markets..and that is not driving the directive of the FED, in fact we have been under 2% for what like 10 years? No inflation means no rush to raise rates by the FED. I dont see how it will change with the global deflation we are seeing which will be passed to the US as the USD keeps being so strong.

all will be winners.   And buy gold and silver.  Physical.  Something is brewing.  

The ECB knows of the issues with DB, I think they will do everything in their power to try and get DB out of this hole one way or the other..it is part of the reason why they have been so accomodative, they know the banking system is vulnerable.

I cant see how the ECB isnt in front of this and isnt planning on what they will do if the derivative markets freeze up.

That is the only thing that can kill DB is if the derivative market goes icy...thats what did it in 2008...the credit and derivative market went illiquid and banks got swamped with margin calls and that was that.