Has anybody joined Facebook in the last year?

Social media outlets are fads, they come and they go.  FB has seen it's time, and it was one hell of a ride, but I think it is done.

I need to look no further than HS students.  For years previous, HS students were all over it.  Then the older millenials were all over it, then it was the parents and grandparents.  Everybody that wants to be out there is out there.

I have two boys in HS and I asked them a few weeks ago if any of their friends were on FB.  They said that some have a page they made a few years back, but nobody uses it any more.  My boys FB page has cobwebs.  The kids are not using it... primarily because their parents and grandparents are all over it.  It is an intrusion of their privacy and it is no longer cool at all to be on FB... yesterdays fad.

Have any of you started your FB page in the last 12 months?  I doubt there are too many.  It will be interesting to watch FB stock over the next year or so.

They are harmless with their faces buried in their smartphone..... perhaps that is best for the world.

Oculus Rift.  It's not a website, it's hardware.  Millions to be made from gamers.  I think it's PC based only but Sony just unveiled their competitor for the PS4, called Morpheus.  I'd never wear one of those thing on my head.  Something about being blindfolded in my own home just doesn't feel right.

before its height facebook was awesome bc you had to have a college email and could hit on all the females at your college 

now facebook has became an outlet for parents and grown 40 yr olds to start drama and air drama that they missed out on when they were younger which sucks.. 

You can guarantee all you want when you don't have to back it up.  FB market cap is astranomical and it's growth model is done.  No new users.  The success story is past tense.

I totally agree that social media is here to stay... but it is a revolving door.

Stock has traded down from 70+ to 60 and it is only headed lower.  Twitter was the new thing, but that will reach a peak soon.  Folks are getting tired of hearing #this #that... stupid BS.  Instagram now, and something stupider tomorrow.

Anybody holding FB at today's level hoping for another bull run is a fool.

crickets...

It is not growing.  The growth is past tense.  Trades and a high multiple so the stock will be cut in half over the next year.  Then another half the following year.  Then it will settle in somewhere about a 15 pe paying a dividend if it survives at all - in the long run.

He's sold stock options worth $5.6 Billion dollars the last two years.

And if I'm reading this article correctly, he sold another 41.35 millon shares worth $55 bucks each to pay the tax bill on all the stock options he's sold.

That is fair point.  So we agree that the growth model is dead.

So let me ask everybody another question... If nobody new is joining FB, where is the revenue coming.  Do any of you feel you have contributed any of YOUR MONEY to FB is any sort of way?  The moment they decide to charge for the priviledge to use their site, it will be a ghost town.

Results are the final determinant to my thesis.  FB stock is struggling in comparison the the broader market.  That trend will continue.

Have you even looked at the latest 10K for FB? Since you sound like such a expert, I'm sure you notice the top line growth, correct? Now you must also realize that top line growth has nothing to do with new subscribers / members joining FB. Who cares that their subscriber growth has slowed down, they still have over 1 billion active users. Now If you don't know how they are making money right now, you know nothing about their business model. Good luck shorting it. 

This stock will take a 50% haircut soon.