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World Cup 2018

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Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60107
Posted: #101

Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Brilliant gameplan and execution by Mexico. Defend deep, allow possession, and they brought their striker back also to create overlap space up top for their wingers on the break.  By doing this, Germany felt comfortable bringing their center backs up further than normal, which allowed even more space to get exposed by Mexico speed. Just perfection. Who is this result worst for?  Not Germany (although it might prove to be bad) - but Sweden.  Sweden should know anything less than a win against S Korea is a disaster now.  I expect them to really go for it tomorrow.

Also, anyone notice what Mexico (and others) have been doing when their is a questionable call in their own box?  At about 74 minutes, Germany were appealing for a handball penalty, and Ochoa put the ball down for a goal kick and took it in about 2 seconds flat to avoid a replay.  Interesting.

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Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60107
Posted: #102

And I should have really known better than to get sucked in to that Germany line.

I have avoided the big favorites up until this game, but got sucked in.  Stupid, and lesson learned.

 

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Veteran
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Joined: Jun, 2014
Posts: 2455
Posted: #103
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

And I should have really known better than to get sucked in to that Germany line.

I have avoided the big favorites up until this game, but got sucked in.  Stupid, and lesson learned.

 

Your not the only one mate 

 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60107
Posted: #104

Housekeeping:

Future Bets:

Uruguay to win group A -130 (risk 1.3 units to win 1 unit

Russia to advance group A – no - +235 (risk .2 unit to win .47 unit

Morocco to advance group B +325 (risk .5 unit to win 1.625 units

Denmark win group C +500 (risk .5 unit to win 2.5 units

Croatia win group D +240 (.2 unit to win .48)

Sweden to advance Group F +130 (.3 unit to win .39)

Korea Republic advance NO group F -525 (1.625 to win .3)

Senegal to advance NO group G -140 (.7 to win .5)

Win WC Spain +630 (.3 units to win 1.89)

Portugal under 5.5 points Group B -125 (.625 to win .5)

Serbia over 3 points -115 (.575 to win .5)

Senegal under 3.5 points +110 (.5 to win .6)

 

 

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Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60107
Posted: #105

Game Bets:

Current Record - UP   9.54  Down 7.1

1.   Saudi Arabia / Russia Under 2 +125 (1 unit to win 1.25 units) - LOSS

2.      Uruguay -158 vs Egypt (1.58 unit to win 1 unit) - WIN

3.      Morocco +135 vs Iran (2 units to win 2.7) - LOSS

4.      Spain -105 vs Portugal (2.1 units to win 2) - LOSS

5.      Australia +1.5 vs France +114 (1 unit to win 1.14) - WIN

6.      Argentina / Iceland under 2, 2.5 +105 (2 units to win 2.1) - WIN (.5)

7.      Denmark +145 vs Peru (3 units to win 4.35) - WIN

8.      Croatia / Nigeria under 2, 2.5 -115 (1.15 to win 1) - WIN (.5)

9.       Serbia -106 vs Costa Rica (1.59 to win 1.5) - WIN

10.     Germany -200 vs Mexico (2 to win 1) - LOSS

11.      Brazil / Switzerland no bet

12.      Sweden +108 vs S Korea (3 units to win 3.24)

13.      Panama / Belgium under 2.5, 3 +103 (1 unit to win 1.03)

14.       Tunisia / England no bet

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Banned
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Joined: Oct, 2017
Posts: 329
Posted: #106
You like Sweden a bit, you see any value in them 1st half +180? Maybe take a unit and split half between that and Draw at -05?
 
Veteran
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Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 1858
Posted: #107

Thanks for posting your thoughts and picks Vanzack, hope you have a profitable day :):)

 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60107
Posted: #108

Hope everyone got the +135ish that Sweden was before kickoff this morning.

Good win.

S Korea was really never in it.

peace_5

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Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #109

I have officially switched over to Spanish TV for the WC.  I lasted about 10 minutes today on Fox, but gave up for good.

A buddy of mine texted me this quote from Kobi Jones (Fox Announcer):  "Korea arent doing this that and the other thing and they do, it isn't working"

That about sums up the insight you will get on Fox during this WC.  

I did tune in to the HT show to see exactly 3 first half plays on the highlights, and to hear LVG and Lalas debate a penalty (who cares what these guys think) and to hear their "predictions" of what would happen.  There is no tactical insight.  You have the former manager of multiple world class teams on the set, and you ask him who he thinks is going to win.  Im done with Fox.  They are ruining the world cup for the masses in the USA.

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Prospect
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Joined: Mar, 2014
Posts: 159
Posted: #110
That Video replays are very game changing! 

Just got +120. Thanks for the picks bud! 
 
Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #111

So far, big favorites....  (over -200)

Russia wins 5-0

France wins 2-1 (loses the -1.5 spread)

Argentina draws 1-1

Germany loses 0-1

Brazil draws 1-1

 

Not saying this has anything to do with the remaining 2 matches today, but it is interesting.  I chalk it up to first round games - and that it will straighten out over the course of the tournament.  I do believe France will have a short life in this tournament, and Russia still might not advance.  Argentina, Brazil, and Germany surely will figure it out.

an_cheers

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Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #112

Quote Originally Posted by Kidmancer:

That Video replays are very game changing! Just got +120. Thanks for the picks bud!

Yes.  VAR is great for the game.

Sweden dominated but still needed that call to win.

an_cheers

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Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #113

To the "world cup specialist" tout who is stealing all of my picks and selling them, I am on to you.

Don't ruin the party.

an_shake

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Veteran
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Joined: Jul, 2009
Posts: 3858
Posted: #114

Great call on Sweden, Van!

 
Rookie
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Joined: Sep, 2007
Posts: 776
Posted: #115
submit right before games to thwart re-seller?

good luck - great work!!!
 
Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #116

There is one thing you can always count on in a World Cup, and that is England being hopelessly overrated.

Same old England.

an_baby

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Legend
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Posted: #117

Quote Originally Posted by JTmonayyy:

Great call on Sweden, Van!

Thanks JT.

Scandinavian sides (if you count Iceland) are doing pretty well so far.

peace_5

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Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #118

Quote Originally Posted by kvs23:

submit right before games to thwart re-seller?good luck - great work!!!

Yeah - this annoys me to no end.  Happened last WC also.

Thinking about how to handle....

peace_5

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Captain
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Joined: Jan, 2005
Posts: 8841
Posted: #119
Tunisia giving up a stupid corner.  WTF ?  kick the ball away instead of dancing in the corner.  That just cost them the game. 
 
Captain
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Posts: 8841
Posted: #120
Van, you are right.. This ENG team is always overrated.     They are lucky to come out with a win here, uninspiring on the pitch, and relying on corner-kicks for both of their goals. 
 
Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #121

Yes guys, Tunisia must be sick right now.  

Tomorrows games coming up soon....

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Legend
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Posted: #122

So far, big favorites....  (over -200)

Russia wins 5-0

France wins 2-1 (loses the -1.5 spread)

Argentina draws 1-1

Germany loses 0-1

Brazil draws 1-1

Belgium wins 3-0

England wins 2-1 (loses or pushes the spread)

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Legend
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Posted: #123

Fox can talk about a lot of goals all they want (to boost ratings), but to my count so far....

 

(depending on lines)

4 overs

9 unders

1 push

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Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #124

Quote Originally Posted by Rush51:

Van, you are right.. This ENG team is always overrated.     They are lucky to come out with a win here, uninspiring on the pitch, and relying on corner-kicks for both of their goals.

Belgium should tune up England in about a week.

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Legend
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Posts: 60107
Posted: #125

Game Bets:

Current Record - UP   12.78  Down 7.6

1.      Saudi Arabia / Russia Under 2 +125 (1 unit to win 1.25 units) - LOSS

2.      Uruguay -158 vs Egypt (1.58 unit to win 1 unit) - WIN

3.      Morocco +135 vs Iran (2 units to win 2.7) - LOSS

4.      Spain -105 vs Portugal (2.1 units to win 2) - LOSS

5.      Australia +1.5 vs France +114 (1 unit to win 1.14) - WIN

6.      Argentina / Iceland under 2, 2.5 +105 (2 units to win 2.1) - WIN (.5)

7.      Denmark +145 vs Peru (3 units to win 4.35) - WIN

8.      Croatia / Nigeria under 2, 2.5 -115 (1.15 to win 1) - WIN (.5)

9.       Serbia -106 vs Costa Rica (1.59 to win 1.5) - WIN

10.     Germany -200 vs Mexico (2 to win 1) - LOSS

11.      Brazil / Switzerland no bet

12.      Sweden +108 vs S Korea (3 units to win 3.24) - WIN

13.      Panama / Belgium under 2.5, 3 +103 (1 unit to win 1.03) - LOSE (.5)

14.       Tunisia / England - no bet

15.     Colombia -135 vs Japan (1.35 to win 1) - Waiting to see if James Rodriguez will play.  This wager size is based on if he does not play, will bump .5 unit if he does.

16.     Poland PK and -.5 (-1/4) -103 vs Senegal (2.575 to win 2.5)

17.    Egypt to win +320 vs Russia (1 to win 3.2) - I really feel like a draw does nothing for Egypt here, and they will play to win.  Because of that, I won't be surprised if they lose also - but the +320 price makes it a bet for me.  Salah will play, and I look for Egypt to break down a very poor Russia side on the counter attack.  Egypt wins 2-1.

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