Posted:
#276
As Van said, Croatia might be benching their players.
https://www.beinsports.com/en/2018-fifa-world-cup-russia/video/argentina-concerns-grow-as-dalic-vows-to-re-1/909019
World Cup 2018
Posted:
#277
Quote Originally Posted by gmitran:
As Van said, Croatia might be benching their players. https://www.beinsports.com/en/2018-fifa-world-cup-russia/video/argentina-concerns-grow-as-dalic-vows-to-re-1/909019
As Van said, Croatia might be benching their players. https://www.beinsports.com/en/2018-fifa-world-cup-russia/video/argentina-concerns-grow-as-dalic-vows-to-re-1/909019
thx for the article. Interesting though that the public sure isn't betting the game as if they are resting anyone
Posted:
#278
Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Love the writeups, Vanz, please keep it up. Best part of this thread is to read the thought process. Spain has been your Achilles heel thus far. It's like being in love with a woman whose flaws you cannot see because, well, you are in love. But I'm glad you see their flaws now. But don't "dump" them just yet! Wait at least until after the "date" with Russia. They owe you that much.
A couple of thoughts on tomorrows picks:
I have found, over the years, that teams with lesser talent do not always do well under pressure (i.e., win a game when they have to win it), even if the circumstances favor them. Hell, even the good teams struggle with pressure (look at Spain and Portugal today). That makes me wary of your Iceland pick. I imagine, the players on Croatia, though they are not all starters and/or have not played in meaningful games together, will be more carefree, knowing they are through to the next round.
Speaking of pressure, Argentina is feeling it right about now. You are certainly right to fade them (after all, they have given us few signs of life, if any, and indeed, they look very much like a broken team) but the greatness of Messi and the inexperience of Nigeria in a winner-take-all type of game also worries me.
Speaking of worry, the Danes should really be worried. The French team did not take too kindly to what their coach said:
A month ago, Hareide told a Danish newspaper the France team his players will face Tuesday was "nothing special," lacked players who were true leaders, and suggested Paul Pogba was too focused on his hairstyles.
Love the writeups, Vanz, please keep it up. Best part of this thread is to read the thought process. Spain has been your Achilles heel thus far. It's like being in love with a woman whose flaws you cannot see because, well, you are in love. But I'm glad you see their flaws now. But don't "dump" them just yet! Wait at least until after the "date" with Russia. They owe you that much.
A couple of thoughts on tomorrows picks:
I have found, over the years, that teams with lesser talent do not always do well under pressure (i.e., win a game when they have to win it), even if the circumstances favor them. Hell, even the good teams struggle with pressure (look at Spain and Portugal today). That makes me wary of your Iceland pick. I imagine, the players on Croatia, though they are not all starters and/or have not played in meaningful games together, will be more carefree, knowing they are through to the next round.
Speaking of pressure, Argentina is feeling it right about now. You are certainly right to fade them (after all, they have given us few signs of life, if any, and indeed, they look very much like a broken team) but the greatness of Messi and the inexperience of Nigeria in a winner-take-all type of game also worries me.
Speaking of worry, the Danes should really be worried. The French team did not take too kindly to what their coach said:
A month ago, Hareide told a Danish newspaper the France team his players will face Tuesday was "nothing special," lacked players who were true leaders, and suggested Paul Pogba was too focused on his hairstyles.
"My players can read, they can listen," France coach Didier Deschamps said Monday. "They know, they recall very well what the coach said."
It seems like the French will be looking to put the hurt on the Danes, i.e., knock them out of the tournament (if Australia wins) or at the very least make sure they do not win the group. Now you may laugh at what I am suggesting, but I have also learned, over the years, that these million dollar athletes welcome/embrace any kind of psychological edge they can get. It is not enough to play for riches and fame (not when you have all that and more). No. They also need to be insulted, have their feelings hurt, and their manhood questioned to give you their best. Hence the expression, "bulletin board material."
Good luck tomorrow, and in the days to come...
As I mentioned before, though Iceland will be going up against lesser talent and/or players who have not played as much together in game conditions, they will also be playing a team (in Croatia) who will be more relaxed and carefree. That is my worry, from a psychological angle.
Posted:
#280
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Picks for Tuesday... 37. Peru PK and -.5 vs Australia +100 (2.5 units to win 2.5) 38. France / Denmark - I already have a future with Denmark to win the group at 5-1 (current line is 4-1) for .5 unit. I am going to just keep that and not bet more. I think a draw is likely here, but wouldnt be surprised with any result other than a multiple goal win by either. No bet. 39. Nigeria +.5 +172 vs Argentina (1.5 units to win 2.58) 40. Iceland PK and +.5 -103 vs Croatia (2.06 to win 2) - locking this up early before the Croatia line up is released - I fully expect almost a whole new team out there for Croatia.
Picks for Tuesday... 37. Peru PK and -.5 vs Australia +100 (2.5 units to win 2.5) 38. France / Denmark - I already have a future with Denmark to win the group at 5-1 (current line is 4-1) for .5 unit. I am going to just keep that and not bet more. I think a draw is likely here, but wouldnt be surprised with any result other than a multiple goal win by either. No bet. 39. Nigeria +.5 +172 vs Argentina (1.5 units to win 2.58) 40. Iceland PK and +.5 -103 vs Croatia (2.06 to win 2) - locking this up early before the Croatia line up is released - I fully expect almost a whole new team out there for Croatia.
Good start.
Thinking about bumping up Iceland with new better line.....
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Posted:
#282
Iceland line has gotten much better. Anyone betting now will get Iceland +.5 +105ish.
For the purposes of this thread, I am going to bump the iceland bet up .5 unit - reflected below.
39. Nigeria +.5 +172 vs Argentina (1.5 units to win 2.58)
40. Iceland PK and +.5 -103 vs Croatia (2.06 to win 2), Iceland +.5 +105 (.5 to win .525) - locking this up early before the Croatia line up is released - I fully expect almost a whole new team out there for Croatia.
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Posted:
#292
Quote Originally Posted by Croato:
That team un qualifying was coached by an idiot who had no place coaching the NTDalic has players playing in their right positions for a changeI'm not saying Cro will win or lose just a heads up this will not be a cakewalk for IcelandPjaca is hungry to get into the first 11
That team un qualifying was coached by an idiot who had no place coaching the NTDalic has players playing in their right positions for a changeI'm not saying Cro will win or lose just a heads up this will not be a cakewalk for IcelandPjaca is hungry to get into the first 11
Definitely no cakewalk. For sure. Never said that for sure.
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Posted:
#296
Quote Originally Posted by JTmonayyy:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
That was brutal. Tomorrows picks after some recovery time.
SUPER unlucky. Van. Great analysis. You were definitely on the right side of both games.That was brutal. Tomorrows picks after some recovery time.
Thanks. I like to think I am fairly objective about good luck and bad luck, but this WC so far has not been "lucky" for me. I do feel like I deserved more from todays late games, but it goes that way sometimes.
On to tomorrow....
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Posted:
#297
I have a lot of thoughts about todays games, but I will save them for later. I can't imagine France not advancing against Argentina, but will wait and let it settle in a few days....
Wednesdays Games:
In a WC oddity, Group F is playing before Group E. Why? I dont know. Sepp Blatter probably got some money for it though.
I am not sure that a team has ever been eliminated from group play with 6 points, but it is conceivable that it could happen here. Germany is going to beat S Korea, which will give them 6, and if Sweden beats Mexico, it will be a three way tie for first at 6 points each. Germany goes through for sure in this scenario, and if Sweden wins by 2+ goals they go through otherwise it is Mexico. If Mexico beats Germany, and wins against S Korea, and doesnt make it through, they will feel very hard done by.
Mexico has been the tactical masterclass of this tournament so far. They showed how to beat germany - take them on the counterattack with speed and spread them out - and then they changed it up and beat S Korea with possession. For a coach who has been criticized in the past, it shows his skills and the ability for this side to change as needed according to situation and opposition.
Sweden has been very good, but a few bad minutes meant disaster for them. But they easily have the ability to deal with Mexico. They will know they have to win, which is not a position I would think they like. But Sweden (under normal circumstances, not the last few minutes against Germany) is extremely organized and defensively sound - something Mexico has not seen so far in this tournament. And this might frustrate the Mexicans.
Mexico has scored 3 goals so far - 2 of them on the break - and 1 PK. In normal build up play, they have been very pedestrian - zero goals and not many chances. I am very skeptical as to how they are going to deal with a Sweden defense that will be organized and solid all match (until of course the 92nd minute when they will push to score, and Mexico will win with a late break goal).
My prediction is that Sweden will frustrate Mexico all day, and have chances on the break, and also beat them with physical strength and size. If Sweden is at all up for this match after giving everything in their match against Germany - I look for them to have the edge, and as the match goes on, become more and more comfortable on the ball and Mexico increasingly frustrated.
Sweden +225 vs Mexico (2 units to win 4.5) - Predicted final score Sweden 2-0
What can I do with the S Korea vs Germany match. I would love to take the Koreans here - as I think Germany might be the biggest public square bet of this whole tournament - and I do see cracks that make Germany not perfect - but I cant bet against them here. I also cant bet on them.
The Germans will have possession, they will have chances, they will have shots. How many will go in? 1? 2? 3? 7? I dont know.
Germany vs S Korea - no bet - predicted final score Germany more than 0, S Korea less than Germany.
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Posted:
#300
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Correction above.... If Sweden beat Mexico they advance. They do not need to win by 2+ goals. They just need to win.
Correction above.... If Sweden beat Mexico they advance. They do not need to win by 2+ goals. They just need to win.
If they have the same result, it'll come down to tiebreakers. Should Germany win their match by two and Sweden win by one, Germany would advance. Should they win by the same margin (or both draw), whichever team scores the most goals in their final match would advance.
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