South Carolina at North Carolina State (09/03/2009)

South Carolina Gamecocks | Last Year: 7-6 | My 2009 Prediction: 5-7

This has to be a do-or-die season in Steve Spurrier’s fifth season as HC for the Gamecocks.  Expectations are high (maybe unrealistically high) these days in college football, especially for teams in the bigger conferences.  But, Spurrier has gone just 28-21 in the past four seasons with his best record being 8-5 with a bowl win over Houston in 2006.  It’s not all his fault, though.  The players still have to execute and take care of the ball-something they did not do last year having thrown 27 INT’s with 38 TO’s in all, both good for worst in the nation.  The O-line was horrible last year giving up 39 sacks and making way for a mere 94 rush yards per game.  This year the O-line returns and can’t be any worse.  There’s still no proven answer at RB, but rather a rotation of 3.  QB Garcia played 3 games last year and threw 8 int’s, so he’ll have to get much better and make smarter decisions, although he’s still going to make the mistakes in his first year as the starter.  The secondary loses 3 superb starters from the nation’s 2nd best pass defense last year.  The strength of the team should once again be the DEF centered around one of the nation’s best LB in Eric Norwood, who had 75 tackles and 9 sacks last season.  Overall, expectations cannot be too high considering the questions yet to be answered.  The DEF could be on the field a lot if the OFF doesn’t come up with a way to score.  With the season opener at NC State considered to be a must win game and the Georgia game a week later almost a certain L, a good indication of where this team is will be in the third game of the season at home against an FAU team possessing a potent OFF.  It will be interesting to see the FAU OFF vs. the SC DEF.  If the SC DEF can contain FAU as well as put points on the board themselves, the Gamecocks will be headed in the right direction with at best a 2-1 record to start the season.  At the same time, the Gamecocks are fully capable of starting the season 0-4 (4th game at home vs. Miss) before taking a break with SC ST.

NC State Wolfpack | Last Year: 6-7 | My 2009 Prediction: 8-4

HC Tom O’Brien has steadily improved his Wolfpack team, taking them from 3-9 when he took over to 5-7 his first year and 6-7 and a bowl game last year.  This year I think he’ll continue with the progression of his team.  The Wolfpack OFF returns 7 and will benefit from a good stable of RB’s and QB Russell Wilson, who as a Freshman, led the conference in total OFF at 213 yards/game and posted the best TD-INT ratio of anyone in the ACC with 17-1.  The O-line will have to do their job of helping keep Wilson healthy and off the ground as they gave up 29 sacks last year.  The O-line will, however, be more experienced this year as 4 starters return.  The D-line will be solid as all 4 starters are seniors, including future NFL draft pick DE Willie Young.  Slow starts have killed the Wolfpack the last few years, but this year they have a great opportunity to start strong, but they’ll be tested right out of the gate as they host S. Carolina in a primetime game on ESPN Thursday, Sept. 3rd-a game the entire college football nation will certainly be watching as it is the first game of the season of any significance.  If NC State can win against SC, who’s down this year and in the bottom half of the SEC, they’ll start the season 3-0 as the next two games are home layup games against FCS teams, and it will give them the confidence they need heading into the meat of their schedule.  If they beat Pitt in their 4th contest, I think they’ll start 6-0 and make some noise in the ACC Atlantic. 

Right now, I'm thinking NC State, but like I said, I'll post my full ATS post later this week.

BTW, "SEC speed will prevail" is a ridiculous reason to pick any team.  Nobody is still buying that propaganda promoted by ESPN. I read a report regarding the recent NFL combine statistics, players from northern schools posted faster 40 times than those from southern schools, but it was marginal (like .02 faster on average).  My point is, every school goes after fast athletes and the SEC has no secret or decided speed advantage.

BTW, "SEC speed will prevail" is a ridiculous reason to pick any team.  Nobody is still buying that propaganda promoted by ESPN. I read a report regarding the recent NFL combine statistics, players from northern schools posted faster 40 times than those from southern schools, but it was marginal (like .02 faster on average).  My point is, every school goes after fast athletes and the SEC has no secret or decided speed advantage.