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Rutgers at Louisville (11/29/2007)

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Posted: #26
Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 Thursday games.
'Nuff said?
 
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Posted: #27
Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 Thursday games.
'Nuff said?
 
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Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by GoG:

 

revenge factor is the single most over-rated term used in sports betting... it is a non-issue about 99% of the time... 1 team always wants revenge from last year... if you were to look at every revenge situation from this year going back to last year (and every year) i bet it would be almost exactly 50%... think about it... if 1 team dominates a series (i.e. wins year in and year out), the other team always has a revenge factor...

have you been betting on the revenge factor with Navy against ND every year for the past 44 years?  congratulations... it finally came through for you...

just had to throw that out there... very rarely the revenge factor could mean something because of HOW a team lost the previous year... but most of the time, come on... a team might lose 5 games in a season, and they are supposed to be especially pumped up the next year against all 5 of those teams?  sorry... just doesn't work that way...

WRECKEDEM... i agree on the over... do NOT understand why this total is only 60, and why ppl aren't looking at it more... this is possibly Brohm's last game in college, even if Louisville wins here... and he knows it... he will be pulling out all the stops... but Rutgers will move the ball all over that defense... both teams should be in the 30's pretty easily...


You are taking the term rvenge factor to literal. I would never use revenge factor just for losing a game the previous year. That makes no sense. There are cases more extreme such as Rutgers ruining Louisville's undefeated season  and  UCLA ruining USC's championship run last year. I believe revenge is a non factor in this game. The USC game I think its a big a factor for some extra motivation.
 
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Posted: #29
Revenge factor can definitely be overrated, like many other common betting themes.  The way I use it is for as assurance that a given team will be very unlikely to look ahead or lose focus, that it should not be a trap game and motivation should not be an issue.  It goes without saying that all teams want to win.  But which team wants to win MORE?   Football is an emotional game.  This seems to work better when the team wanting revenge is at home -- the crowd is usually more amped as well.  But I would not use it as a reason to bet in and of itself.

I still am on the fence here, and may avoid it and just enjoy the GB-Dallas game.  I would lean toward Rutgers, but with an unhealthy Teel at QB I have doubts.  Brohm should have a good game, but as for the rest of 'em it's a roll of the dice.
 
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Posted: #30
Rutgers is the call in this one. Louisville shouldn't be favored over any team with a defense as atrocious as theirs is.
 
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Posted: #31
Rutgers spoiled Louisville's perfect season, because they were a better team. 
 
Nothing's changed this year.
 
Good luck with yer plays.
 
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Posted: #32
Rutger @ the half & game
 
Should go under, but the it will go overtime.  So, over is the play.
 
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Posted: #33
Rutger @ the half & game
 
Should go under, but the it will go overtime.  So, over is the play.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by PAPADON:

Rutger @ the half & game
 
Should go under, but the it will go overtime.  So, over is the play.

WOW you are a true soothsayer predicting OT
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by GoG:

 

actually Dencol, on the Oregon St game i bet it AFTER the Dixon injury... they keep those games up untilt hey are played, but they take them off the board the Saturday of the game, and then adjust the lines... so if you had bet it early in the year the line was probably around 14-17... i bet it after Dixon got hurt and it had been adjusted down to 7.5...

it is very easy to outsmart the books on those... think about it...

early in the year these were some of the games of the year, and i liked all of them at the time, but only selected a few...

LSU (-6.5) vs VT... line was 11 or more by gametime...

OU (-7) vs Tx... 11 by gametime...

Fla (+13) @ LSU... 8 by gametime

Aub (+21) @ LSU... 10 by gametime

Ore (+11) vs USC... 3.5 by gametime

Cal (+7.5) vs USC... 3.5 by gametime

Ark (+21) @ LSU... 13 by gametime

Rutgers (+7.5) @ Louisville... 2.5? by gametime

Ore St (+7.5) vs Ore... -1? by gametime (maybe higher)...

 

like i said, those games can be bet at any time from week 1 until the game actually goes off... but the line changes from week to week based on performance... but think about it... Auburn was playing badly, LSU was playing great, so look at those lines against Fla, Auburn and Arkansas... i don't care what is going on, i know those lines are ridiculous the minute i see them... Auburn at (+21)???  that was so easy!  that series will never be decided by 3 TDs... every single line that i liked moved at least 4 points in my favor... and that's all i'm looking for... like playing the stock market... play the line that you know is going to change by gametime as the season wears on...

yea, injuries could hurt you... but they could just as easily help you... Vegas can't outsmart YOU on injuries... that's a crapshoot...

i knew after week 1 that Oregon was undervalued, and USC was overvalued... knew around week 3 that LSU was being overvalued in those rivalry games, and so was Louisville... plus you can look at the schedule and envision that a team won't lose or might lose... etc...

something to think about...

 

Yes, it will work out great if your playing against an early hype team...ie: Texas or Louisville.... but you still have to be careful you dont run into a buzzsaw... I stay away from  most futures for injury  concerns.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by PAPADON:

Rutger @ the half & game
 
Should go under, but the it will go overtime.  So, over is the play.
Still trying to figure out what it is you said. what is the "it"
 
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Posted: #37
I think I will play over in this game and under in Green Bay game..  Rutgers should control ball. I just can't trust their D to stop a passing team. Plus their whole season was a letdown just like L'ville.. Do any of them care!!!!
 
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Posted: #38
Teabag and Danstyk... agree with both of those points... can be used, just some people overuse it as a blanket to handicap any game...
 
and dencol, like i said, the injury thing can go either way... and actually... think about the Oregon - USC game... what if Dixon had been injured BEFORE that game?  i got Oregon (+11) at home early in the year... by gametime that line was Oregon (-3)... but if Dixon had been injured, the line would have been, what?  Oregon (+7)... definitely no worse than Oregon (+11)... if you are betting for value and finding it in the right spots, the worst an injury will do is put the line in the same place you bet it...
 
obviously the key is to know what you're doing... but if you do, it can be great value... i have done this selectively in the past, and it has always worked out the same for me...
 
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Posted: #39
i have to decide if i want to middle this game with L'Ville (-2.5) and Rutgers (+7.5)... makes for a juicy middle, but i just don't know if Louisville deserves to be favored... they have been garbage as a favorite this year, and garbage at home... and i'm sure Rutgers can move the ball all over them...
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by GoG:

i have to decide if i want to middle this game with L'Ville (-2.5) and Rutgers (+7.5)... makes for a juicy middle, but i just don't know if Louisville deserves to be favored... they have been garbage as a favorite this year, and garbage at home... and i'm sure Rutgers can move the ball all over them...
my question is how do you middle a game that opened at 2.5 and is still 2.5 what book has rutgers +7.5
 
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Posted: #41
read up higher dblg... my first post on this page...
 
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Posted: #42
Middling a game like this is like Tony Romo dropping a softee in on a deep fade to TO... It looks good but not easy to do.
 
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Posted: #43
lean to rutgers for the game, liking the over as well, need to look a little more...
 
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Posted: #44
I'm still on vacation and still not drunk enough to touch another Louisville game.

FYI I do like the over in this game but very far away from touching another Louisville game.


Good luck on this one everyone


 
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Posted: #45
Lean on Louisville
 
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Posted: #46
Rutgers is am still on after reading all the above.  Louisville cant stop an old lady in a cross walk.  I also think that Rutgers running attack will drain the clock, leaving no room for the over.... something to think about.
 
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Posted: #47
lots of offense...zero defense!!!!  OVER!!!!
 
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Posted: #48
Rutgers getting points against a terrible Louisville team? Yes please, and lots of it. I LOVE Rutgers to take care of business in this game here tonight. Rice is a big game player and the spotlight will be on. The public is on L'ville here tongight (Not surprisingly - these are the same folks who ride the Bengals no matter what every week because they cane score). Rutgers is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with losing records. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday nigh games. They like the spotlight and will beat a bad L'ville team who is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Cap_Wizards:

Rutgers getting points against a terrible Louisville team? Yes please, and lots of it. I LOVE Rutgers to take care of business in this game here tonight. Rice is a big game player and the spotlight will be on. The public is on L'ville here tongight (Not surprisingly - these are the same folks who ride the Bengals no matter what every week because they cane score). Rutgers is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with losing records. They are also 4-0 in their last 4 Thursday nigh games. They like the spotlight and will beat a bad L'ville team who is only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
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Was hoping the line would sway a bit because of it too, try to turn a small play into a big one. This line should be Louisville +1 or 2. If I could figure out why it isn't, this would be a full play. Still should be a big night for Ray Rice and the clock will run quickly. Small play Schiano +2.5. No ML on my book or else I'd jump it.

Rutgers 27-24

 
 
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Posted: #50
Louisville hasn't covered at home all year.  I don't know why they would start now.
 
Rutgers (small play)
 
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