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Rutgers at Louisville (11/29/2007)

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Posted: #1

Away:  Rutgers [5-5 ATS]
Home:  Louisville [3-7 ATS]

Game Time: 7:45 PM
Stadium: Papa John's Cardinal Stadium

Recent Meetings:
11/09/06 - LOU 25 vs. RUTG 28
11/11/05 - RUTG 5 vs. LOU 56
11/01/86 - RUTG 41 vs. LOU 0

Team Leaders:

Rutgers:
Passing: Mike Teel (2579)
Rushing: Ray Rice (1612)
Receiving: Tiquan Underwood (965)

Louisville:
Passing: Brian Brohm (3787)
Rushing: Anthony Allen (674)
Receiving: Harry Douglas (1113)

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Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

 
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Posted: #2
Rutgers is the only bet here thanks to a little thing called T.O.P.  Rice is going to run all over the Card's D.  Brohm gets interecepted twice.  Final: Rutgers 34 Louisville 27
 
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Posted: #3
I would have taken Rutgers if they were a touchdown favorite. UL has played like pure garbage and everybody here has jumped ship on Kraigthorpe and the team. It won't even be a sellout. I don't know what the hell is wrong with that team, but I will never bet on them again.
 
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Posted: #4
this is a must win for the Ville isnt it? no win no bowl
 
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Posted: #5
Louisville isn't getting into a bowl game whether or not they win this... they could become bowl eligible... but i don't think that's enough after the year they've had...
 
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Posted: #6
just a last chance for Brohm to impress NFL scouts -- other than the combine or Senior Bowl
 
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Posted: #7
Louisville is so banged up on the O-Line and just about everywhere else.  Rutgers is not having the season they were projected to have.  Rutgers is the pick here, they have more to prove.
 
Rutgers  24
Louisville 17
 
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Posted: #8
i dunno man -im a rutgers fan but this game makes me nervous-
a huge revenge factor involved.rutgers used louisville last year to make a statement,that they were "that"good.
 
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Posted: #9
Ray Rice
 
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Recent Trends | In Depth

  • RUTG are 12-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 8-3 in RUTG last 11 games in November.
  • Over is 7-3-1 in RUTG last 11 games on grass.
  • LOU are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in November.
  • LOU are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall
 
 
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Posted: #11
this was another of my "CFB games of the year" that i bet at the Hilton earlier in the year... got Rutgers at +7.5... also have Ore St +7.5 @ Oregon this week...
 
so far, those games are 4-0-1 ATS, and everyone of them moved at least 4 pts in my favor by game time... and the Auburn-LSU game moved 11 points in my favor... definitely going to hit those games heavier next year... should be 6-0-1 on the year, with the only push being OU (-7) vs. Texas in the Red River Shootout...
 
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Posted: #12
Just lookin' for a little help.  Not doing so good.  I wonder if it's because I'm drawn to those "small spreads" games.  It's looking like my bookie will probably give me Louisville -2.5 or -3.  With that in mind, what does anyone think is the play here...Sincere thanks to any and all opinions...GL....The Bird ?!?!
 
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Posted: #13
Tough game to figure both teams having disappointing years. Teel has missed time last few weeks and Lovelace is a downgrade from him. Rutgers red zone offense awful this year. Louisville we all have seen how bad their defense is. Brohm is still scary. Louisville playing for nothing but pride. Do they have any???  I haven't noticed it. Anyone know if Rutgers will get in bowl with a win a 8-4 record overall,a 500 record in conference and third place tie in big east (whatever tie breakers are I didn't check). I would think a loss by Rutgers and a 7-5 record sub 500 big east and 5th place conference record would leave them shy. Maybe thats the edge. INPUT?
 
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Posted: #14
Didn't mention the revenge factor for Louisville as Rutgers spoiled their undefeated season early on last year. Really don't know how much weight I put on that the way these two seasons have gone.
 
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Posted: #15
Anyone else like the over in this one?
 
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Posted: #16
Quote Originally Posted by MauiWarrior:

Ray Rice

My thoughts exactly. UL couldn't stop him last year and they can't stop ANYBODY this year. Thier D gives up a lot of big plays.

 
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Posted: #17
Louisville -2.5.  Hard to judge home/away stats since Rutgers have only played 3 away games, UCONN being the best of the three and they lost that one 19-38 and most of Louisvilles home games were against cupcakes except for Utah and Pitt where they lost to Utah by 9 and beat Pitt by 7.  All of the #'s point to Rutgers in this one, but I think that Louisville wins in a high scoring shootout.  Mike Teels thumb will be bothering him and James Townsend is out for the season.  Brohm will have a good game passing all over the Rutgers D and Louisville will find a way to stop Ray Rice.
Rutgers 31
L'ville-35
 
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Posted: #18
Rutgers plays the spoiler here.

Rutgers 28
Louisville 21
 
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This is a tough one to figure out.....my confidence is a bit shaken from the 3-0 score on Monday night.  I wish I would have seen the field before making my bet on the over.  A couple of things stick out here to me 1) Louisville is 0-4 ATS at home this year......2) Louisville Defense is horrible against the Run, and give up 30+ pts per game....3) Rutgers has the number 2 pass defense in the nation and should be able to give Brohm some problems.  I think Rutgers should be able to control the field position and the clock with Ray Rice.  I think Rutgers wins outright in a close game
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by GoG:

this was another of my "CFB games of the year" that i bet at the Hilton earlier in the year... got Rutgers at +7.5... also have Ore St +7.5 @ Oregon this week...
 
so far, those games are 4-0-1 ATS, and everyone of them moved at least 4 pts in my favor by game time... and the Auburn-LSU game moved 11 points in my favor... definitely going to hit those games heavier next year... should be 6-0-1 on the year, with the only push being OU (-7) vs. Texas in the Red River Shootout...
I am not sure you can get lucky and outsmart the books long term.... I think a lot fell your way ie: Dixon
 
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Posted: #21
I'm liking the over at 60 right now. 
 
both teams are very capable of putting up 40 points.
 
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Teabaggins:

Didn't mention the revenge factor for Louisville as Rutgers spoiled their undefeated season early on last year. Really don't know how much weight I put on that the way these two seasons have gone.

 

revenge factor is the single most over-rated term used in sports betting... it is a non-issue about 99% of the time... 1 team always wants revenge from last year... if you were to look at every revenge situation from this year going back to last year (and every year) i bet it would be almost exactly 50%... think about it... if 1 team dominates a series (i.e. wins year in and year out), the other team always has a revenge factor...

have you been betting on the revenge factor with Navy against ND every year for the past 44 years?  congratulations... it finally came through for you...

just had to throw that out there... very rarely the revenge factor could mean something because of HOW a team lost the previous year... but most of the time, come on... a team might lose 5 games in a season, and they are supposed to be especially pumped up the next year against all 5 of those teams?  sorry... just doesn't work that way...

WRECKEDEM... i agree on the over... do NOT understand why this total is only 60, and why ppl aren't looking at it more... this is possibly Brohm's last game in college, even if Louisville wins here... and he knows it... he will be pulling out all the stops... but Rutgers will move the ball all over that defense... both teams should be in the 30's pretty easily...

 
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Posted: #23

Quote Originally Posted by dencol:

I am not sure you can get lucky and outsmart the books long term.... I think a lot fell your way ie: Dixon

 

actually Dencol, on the Oregon St game i bet it AFTER the Dixon injury... they keep those games up untilt hey are played, but they take them off the board the Saturday of the game, and then adjust the lines... so if you had bet it early in the year the line was probably around 14-17... i bet it after Dixon got hurt and it had been adjusted down to 7.5...

it is very easy to outsmart the books on those... think about it...

early in the year these were some of the games of the year, and i liked all of them at the time, but only selected a few...

LSU (-6.5) vs VT... line was 11 or more by gametime...

OU (-7) vs Tx... 11 by gametime...

Fla (+13) @ LSU... 8 by gametime

Aub (+21) @ LSU... 10 by gametime

Ore (+11) vs USC... 3.5 by gametime

Cal (+7.5) vs USC... 3.5 by gametime

Ark (+21) @ LSU... 13 by gametime

Rutgers (+7.5) @ Louisville... 2.5? by gametime

Ore St (+7.5) vs Ore... -1? by gametime (maybe higher)...

 

like i said, those games can be bet at any time from week 1 until the game actually goes off... but the line changes from week to week based on performance... but think about it... Auburn was playing badly, LSU was playing great, so look at those lines against Fla, Auburn and Arkansas... i don't care what is going on, i know those lines are ridiculous the minute i see them... Auburn at (+21)???  that was so easy!  that series will never be decided by 3 TDs... every single line that i liked moved at least 4 points in my favor... and that's all i'm looking for... like playing the stock market... play the line that you know is going to change by gametime as the season wears on...

yea, injuries could hurt you... but they could just as easily help you... Vegas can't outsmart YOU on injuries... that's a crapshoot...

i knew after week 1 that Oregon was undervalued, and USC was overvalued... knew around week 3 that LSU was being overvalued in those rivalry games, and so was Louisville... plus you can look at the schedule and envision that a team won't lose or might lose... etc...

something to think about...

 

 
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Posted: #24
oh... games in bold are the ones i bet, but overall those went 6-0-1, with 2 remaining...  and i hedged the USC - Cal game and hit the middle...
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by WillRadar:

Anyone else like the over in this one?

 

without a doubt!

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