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Kansas State at Louisville (09/17/2008)

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Posted: #126
Quote Originally Posted by SCOOPYDEW:

Wow not bad for your 1st post I also hope KState plays as well as they did against Auburn last year. Think they only lost by 10 so hopefully they lose by 10 to the CARDS tonight .   GO CARDS  
K State is a better team than the cards. This is a team that is coached better and the team is bigger and stonger and faster. The quaterback is smart in the pocket and expect to see a good running agame from K State. I also went under 56 points.
 
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Posted: #127
2-1 posting in the forums this years(Skins and Maryland last weekend). Cant remember which game i posted first but definitely lost. For whatever that information is worth.

IMO the easiest way to cap games is to find games featuring similar opponents in similar situations. Last weeks ND v. Michigan game is good example of what should happen tonight. THe spred was +2 and the public was all over the mediocre road favorite. ND was a top 10 team 3 year ago and has seen its talent level decrease. THey looked awful at home against SD st. While Michigan at least lost to Utah, which is a pretty good squad and beat miamiO at home.

In comes K St. on a Wednesday night to Papa John stadium. The atmosphere should be electric and after a convincing Lousiville win you'll see the new coach laughing with the media with a million logos of Papa Johns Pizza behind his head.

Im taking the Ville straight up. +165. I think they win by 10+
 
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Posted: #128
Krapthorpe is 1-7 at home ats, dont forget this, the home crowd will be ready to flee if KSU scores 1st. dont get caught on the cards here, im warning you
 
 
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Posted: #129

Quote Originally Posted by goinggone:

Are you talking about matchup consensus %. If so, don't use.You don't need them.

I was talking about the numbers coming from the Vegas casinos on who the public is taking on each play. If that is what you were calling consenus %- yes. Just trying to read any strange movement in the line-i.e. reverse line movement.

In the NBA it is a very good tool and to a degree for NFL- but other cappers on this site have told me to disregard it for CFB. That it is misleading.

Very few on these threads talk about line movement while I know during NBA season line movement discussions were a major topic on the threads- which was a major help in successfully capping those games.

Sorry to get off the game there.

I guess it doesn't matter but over 80% of the public is on Kan St. and the line has moved only half a point in their favor. Reading the line would say the play is LOU. Don't think I can pull the trigger on that though. More thinking and research.

I am on the under though. GLTA

 
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Posted: #130

Quote Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:

However, the public is not so good when there are multiple games on the board.  I will get into why later if I have the time later and if people want to know

I would like to know.

They Call Me Bruce is a great movie by the way!

 
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Posted: #131
yea i have to agree on shep here...this is the team to play..honestly what has this team done since michael bush went down 2+ years ago?  Very inexperienced postion players and i just think way to many vetrans playing D
 
K State -4.5 
 
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Posted: #132
K-State hopes to rev up running game against tough Louisville defense
 
 
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Posted: #133
dont bother teasing the over under in a game that is predicted to be so high scoring.  teasing the over under is a better idea in the NFL when they are usually 35-40, instead of 55-60.  Percentage-wise, you aren't gaining that much when you move the total 10%.
 
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Posted: #134
also, i like the UNDER in this game
 
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Posted: #135
i just searched for the word 'over' in this thread and nobody has picked it.  sportsbook has the public money at 56% on the over, covers consensus is 57% on the over, the top 10 percent is 52% on the over, and the team experts (all 2 of them) are 100% on the over.
 
lovin the UNDER.
 
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Posted: #136
hey guys, lots of great inputs here...personally, i think if we look at the majority and base our decision on it, it's not always correct... i.e. GB @ DET, NYG @ STL ...the majority was on GB and NYG. Now most people in here like the under, lets look at the line movement on that...it opened at 57.5 (LVSC) and now is at 56. I think the move never got pass the key number, which is 56 (8 tds), somehow i think this game will go over....just a thought!
 
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Posted: #137
louisville is the play here take the points +4
 
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Posted: #138
actually it is under your magic number now.
 
09/15/08 10:53 AM ET +3.5 57.5u
09/15/08 01:43 PM ET +3.5 56.0u
09/15/08 07:28 PM ET +4.0 56.0u
09/16/08 01:33 PM ET +4.0 56.5u
09/17/08 09:28 AM ET +4.0 56.0u
09/17/08 11:18 AM ET +4.0 55.0u
09/17/08 11:48 AM ET +4.0 55.5u
09/17/08 04:18 PM ET +4.5 55.5u
 
The line slowly droppped but today at 11:48am, it went back up a half point to 55.5
 
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Posted: #139
agreed that the majority isn't always correct, in fact nothing is.  just pointing out that the under is UNANIMOUS on this thread
 
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Posted: #140
Quote Originally Posted by hacmao:

hey guys, lots of great inputs here...personally, i think if we look at the majority and base our decision on it, it's not always correct... i.e. GB @ DET, NYG @ STL ...the majority was on GB and NYG. Now most people in here like the under, lets look at the line movement on that...it opened at 57.5 (LVSC) and now is at 56. I think the move never got pass the key number, which is 56 (8 tds), somehow i think this game will go over....just a thought!

 

why would you use these games as an example?  the majority was on GB and NYG?  both of these teams covered this week.

 
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Posted: #141
man i lost my ass on louisville/ky.  they got this 6'8" receiver and they hardly threw it to him and when they did HE CAUGHT THE BALL.  not sure what to do on this game. i do know i NEED SOME ACTION . jonesing for it. 
 
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Posted: #142
Quote Originally Posted by WRECKEDEM:

man i lost my ass on louisville/ky.  they got this 6'8" receiver and they hardly threw it to him and when they did HE CAUGHT THE BALL.  not sure what to do on this game. i do know i NEED SOME ACTION . jonesing for it. 
Wow glad you noticed Cards got a 6'8'' reciever everyone here in Louisville knows we have him not sure the coaches know they got him. He played B-BALL for the Cards a little this past year when they needed players he is allways covered by DB's that are 5'8'' he is open on every play when he does get passed to it has been at his ankles just throw it up and let him go up and get it. Once the Coaches figure this out he and Cards will be unstoppable.
 
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Posted: #143
my book has kst -7  and o/u 58                     any thoughts?
 
thanks
 
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Posted: #144
Louisville +4.5 all day
 
Watch and learn.
 
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Posted: #145
the ville +5 at home. i just have to
 
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Posted: #146
I just want to reiterate the under being the right pick.

Here is some deductive reasoning:

1.) The line total of 55 is found this way:

(AVG season totals)

KAN ST: (57.0 + 18.5) / 2 = 37.75 
LOU: (26.5 + 8) / 2 = 17.25

Total: 37.75 + 17.25 = 55

2.) The avg score achieved by these teams was against poor defensive teams. 

3.) The defense of both teams is considerably better than their previous opponents.

Therefore: we should expect less than 55, which is a number skewed by weak opponents, and also because each teams offense will be reduced in efficacy by each others defense.

Also, Louisville looks good because they can stop the run. And we all know what happens when you can stop the run: the opponent can't setup a passing game. I won't be betting on the winner of this game, just the under.

Stupid and obvious.

 




 
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Posted: #147
Wait a little bit and might get this line at +5.5
 
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Posted: #148

Power Rankings are not something I base a pick on but just one of MANY things I look at to make a decision. I find it interesting that the Power Rankings have Louisville 5 points BETTER than K State and also that with all the money pouring in on K State, the line has moved very little.

Maybe the under is a better choice as I originally had K St -4 as my pick tonight.

 

GLA!!!

 

Farrar

 
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Posted: #149
Hell...why not Loiusville +11 and under 61.5?
 
Farrar
 
 
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Posted: #150

Quote Originally Posted by SCOOPYDEW:

Actually PAPA JOHNS STADIUM is TURF not grass but I like your pick GO CARDS !!!!!!!

Shit I thought it was grass. Well I guess I may just roll with the under. Seems like alot of points for two pretty good D's or tease it. GL

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