Kansas State at Louisville (09/17/2008)

For tonight’s game, is the 75% public money a mania produced by two good outings by KSt or is it a mania because they had two good outings? Is the public money good group knowledge? Since there is only one game, I tend to side with the public; thus my previous statement.

With one game, it’s like that county fair weight game.  You have all the gamblers from all over (I am from California) betting on this game. Now, don’t get me wrong, this game could be a blow out for either team, that football bounces very weird at times.  But prior to the game, all information has been assimilated into the line.

For the above reasons, I like to bet with the public in single game nights and especially if they are betting dogs.  But be leery of “public” teams like Indy and NE pre-Brady injury, the media tends to hype them too much and all of a sudden you have a mania developing.

So why is this method wrong when there are multiple games?  Well, also in the book, they did an experiment where they took people with similar like and dislikes and it turns out that when you put these similar people in the group they tend to exaggerate their likes and dislikes. As an example, if five people disliked the color red (individually) and you put them in a group together the group as a whole would dislike red more than any one individual. Each person in essence is getting their likes and dislikes validated by the group, so instead of just disliking red, they start to hate red.  Kinda of interesting. 

How does all this relate to football?  Well, when there are multiple games, we don’t get a diverse set of gamblers.  Florida fans bet on Florida games, but not so much on games from Wyoming.  OSU fans bet on Ohio games, but not on MWC or WAC games.  I know this in not true to the letter, but you know what I mean.  If I had to bet and I am from Chicago, I am going to bet most of my $ on Chicago or the North teams and then some $ on other teams.  So, now we get like minded people betting on the same game.  This is a prefect scenario for a mania to develop.  If OSU should be favored by 10, the public (mania) will push it up to 20 especially with a weaker (perceived) team.

The “psych” profile of a game is only one aspect of my handicapping. I hope this helped.  I am going against this tonite cuz I think LOU’s score against KU was so bad and KSt’s score against their opponents was so good, I think a slight mania has developed against LOU.  I also like the fact that the bookies have made a stand at +4.  They could have easily moved the line to -6 and balanced the action but they haven't.  I hope this helped.