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Florida State at North Carolina State (10/28/2010)

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Posted: #26
Going to bet lightly in this one

Final Plays

FSU -3.5 (small play)
Over 57.5 (small play)
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by oahuboy808:

phan.. you were on NC State when they played at home against Cincy earlier in the year.. you think the home crowd will be just a big of a factor..

leaning towards FSU though.. 

You are the worst capper on here, NC state it is. Thanks!

 
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Posted: #28
game is a coin flip.  I will watch where the bets go and fade the public.   FSU is a very public team so a -3 line seems pretty trapy to me.  
 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by N-P:

You are the worst capper on here, NC state it is. Thanks!

 N-P...ahahahah. you suck, who are you kidding?  

can we get a "HUGE TOTAL PLAY" to fade moron? 

 
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Posted: #30

FSU QB IS QUESTIONABLE???????? IS HE WILL BE OK??

 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by jbranchini1024:

yah vietboy... home crowd never plays factor, right? lol. no such thing as a home field advantage!?!? ohh yah right..

 

ppl like you make me even more confident about my wagers.

 

--- great analysis by the way lol


I don't know if vietboy is a good capper or not but I do know you are reading into things he did not say (or imply).

Should I interpret your logic a saying that Vegas is unaware of home field advantage?  Wouldn't any home field advantage already be baked into the line? 

So, why do you think Vegas understated the line?

I see this as a rebound game for both teams.  FSU had a nice run of four games after getting whipped by OU - then the laid a bit of an egg against BC but still won.  NCST had been rolling, only lose to VT and then got beat at home by a CUSA team. 

FSU has, in recent years, been a bit of an inconsistent team and certainly an underachiever.  Can Jumbo break the team out of that trend?

As for NCST, Tom O'Brien had a great run at BC but has had three sub-500 years while at NCST.  Is he, and NCST, really back as their record of 5-2 might indicate?

A hard game to cap for me, too many variables.  If FSU shows up, I think they cover relatively easily, but will they?  I do like the fact they struggled last week (set up fora rebound).  I am still not sure who good NCST really is; but O'Brien is crafty coach and has his team believing.

Stay away for me.

good luck
 
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Posted: #32
Wolfpack and the Over I agree with Irisheyes that NC State is a team to watch and that this is going to be another weekend of the dogs.
 
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Posted: #33

ronald jeremy-

#16 team in country ONLY -3.5 at an unranked NC STATE team coming off a loss to the lowly ECU PIRATES.

just seems Vegas wants the money on FSU to hope for the NC State SU win. I'll take my chances but only bet small as well. However these are the perfect situations for trap games. Public always all over the RANKED when playing UNRANKED. same in this situation.

 
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Posted: #34
and vietboy was saying that homefield would not be a factor in the final score. I highly doubt that as thursday homedogs are usually profitable
 
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Posted: #35

I'm liking NC State in this spot.  FSU has showed flashes lately, but I'm not totally sold on them.  The Raleigh crowd will have some impact.  FSU's strength on defense is their outstanding pass rush.  Their 30 sacks lead the nation.  NC States QB Wilson is throwing for more than 300 ypg and one of his greatest assets is his quick release.  NC St. is 8-0-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings with the 'Noles and 19-9 last 28 spread decisions overall. 

As someone stated before, the line should be higher.  They want people to jump on FSU.  I will wait until tomorrow to decide which way to go, but definetly taking the points and possibly Wolfpack ML.

Good Luck people.

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by texaslonghorn:

FSU QB IS QUESTIONABLE???????? IS HE WILL BE OK??

 

 

ANYONE KNOW ABOUT THIS?? ANY UPDATE??

 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by jbranchini1024:

ronald jeremy-

#16 team in country ONLY -3.5 at an unranked NC STATE team coming off a loss to the lowly ECU PIRATES.

just seems Vegas wants the money on FSU to hope for the NC State SU win. I'll take my chances but only bet small as well. However these are the perfect situations for trap games. Public always all over the RANKED when playing UNRANKED. same in this situation.



Agreed about the line; FSU laying only 3.5 seemed low to me.  I'm not sure I think Vegas is trying to trick anyone, I think the line partly reflects the fact that this is a 50/50 game as to the SU winner, and since FSU is ranked, they end up being favored.

I am staying away (will revisit for 2H)

p.s.  I think vietboy was saying home crowd won't matter for this game only; not sure why he thinks so.
 
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Posted: #38
Seminoles -4
O58
 
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Posted: #39

I also agree about the line being low.  That scares me a bit.  My numbers have FSU by 9.  Something seams fishy to me about he line, but in my eyes, (which means nothing) they are pretty equal.  Fsu has a bit of an edge on defense, but not much. 

I have fsu at 35-26.  I need to run my numbers again, but I was liking the over, but I haven't convinced myself yet to pull the trigger as close as my numbers are.

 

 
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Posted: #40

    A small lean here on the inconsistent Seminoles (ATS). Should win by 6-7 points without killing themselves. Capping this contest on my abilty of knowing how NC State should play here.

FLORIDA STATE  - 3.5

 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by holtnt:

 

ECU loss was in Greenville North Carolina (road loss)



good catch, thanks; I considered it a neutral field
 
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Posted: #42
Favorites have fared well on Thursday night this year. Gotta go FSU here. GL to everyone.
 
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Posted: #43

Look, no one is saying the stadium won't be a sell-out, or that the NCST crowd won't be pumped (by their standards), but North Carolina is basketball country.  They don't get pumped about football like what FSU is used to so to think the crowd will make a big difference is for those who haven't been to a big-time football venue.  Hell, those fans may leave the stadium if someone announces they can go watch the BB team practice.  I lived there for 20 years, I know that football just isn't the main event in their lives.  It is social to them, not critical.  FSU will have a fair representation of the crowd anyway.   

My point is, FSU has more talent on both sides of the ball and is used to playing meaningful games.  The crowd will not change the outcome of this game.  It is all just opinions, we play as we feel them.  I believe better athletes that are motivated will prevail.  If you think a NC crowd is going to overcome that, go for it.  My bet is FSU will cover and win pretty easily.  Good luck to all.

 
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Posted: #44
is anyone else not getting a line for the total for this game??
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Irisheyez:

if FSU plays like they did against BC
That was letdown spot for FSU coming off the huge win at Miami...I don't think we'll see that type of performance again this year out of them....esp not after having ten days to prep for NCSt. Assuming everyone is healthy, I would lay the pts with the FSU.
 
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Posted: #46
both teams have certainly exihibited inconsistancies. fsu whupped the U on the road. squeaked by a bad bc team. ncst was riding awful high til they ran into trouble. seems as if ncst has covered the last 8 outta 10 vs. fsu. not an easy one imo. will bet because thats what i do. early lean on ncst and over. ncst qb can elevate his game will his teammates do the same? ponder?
 
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Posted: #47
NC State is 10-1 ATS when playing a team with a winning road record.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by duketiffynguyen:

 

ANYONE KNOW ABOUT THIS?? ANY UPDATE??

he is back to play

 
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Posted: #49
i used to pick what i thought was the best team all the time and lost my ass over the years. alot of you have helped me to see things for what they are. doin better now but gambling is gambling. like last nights over. a minute left and bam i am a loser!  that line was going up like the public was pounding it so i went against the grain. with all that said i still dont know who the best teams are. stats, trends, history, injuries,...etc. all important factors in determining a winning side or total. good luck to all.
 
 
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Posted: #50
Be careful with the ol 'fade the public' strategy I tried it at least 6 straight weeks and it did not pan out so well so I stopped. Even though it burnt me last night of course as I knew it would as soon as I changed it up I'm going to stand pat with just going with who I think is gonna cover the spread and not worry if and when I do bet with 99.9% of the Joes -- NOLES +9 w/ SAC +12 & UNDER 212.5/ SA +1/2 @ -130
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