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Auburn at West Virginia (10/23/2008)

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Posted: #101
Really liking the under here.
 
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Posted: #102
Quote Originally Posted by bigr18:

Guys,
     How many times this year are you going to have to see this trend to get on board. Thursday night home teams and underdogs struggling all year all of a sudden explode on primetime t.v. Ex: Cleveland, New England, N.C. State, just to name a few recently. Forget the line. W.Va. rolls tonight and looks like the W.Va. of old days. It's primetime t.v. and a home game. W.Va. and the over.
 
                                            BigR18

 

  Uh Dude....Cleveland and NE were on Monday night and NC State lost by 9. They "exploded"?????

I don't want to bust your balls or anything but try to be relevant.

WV is not the WV of the "old days" either. They are who they are. A team without Rich Rodriguez or Steve Slayton and they're playing one of the best and fastest defenses in the country.

Implosion is much more likely. 

Auburn ML

 

 

 
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Posted: #103
First off, let me say that I am a Pitt fan so I am familiar with Paul Rhodes and the WVU program. First off, Pitt fans were not sad to see Paul move on to Auburn. We watched his defenses give up so many 'record' performances that we care to remember.  Paul Rhodes against WVU last year, however,  was able to finally get his defense to play a complete game and shut down WVU's offense last year. I believe 2 things contributed to that.  1st, WVU was unbelivably unprepared for that game, RRod was used to running all over Pitt.  2nd, Pitt's defense finally executed on the defensive gameplan that they have used against WVU since Wannestadt's famous 'we need to run faster' comment on Thanksgiving 4 years ago.  That being said, when Pitt's defenders were actually finally able to tackle against WVU, RRod reverted back to what he always did when things got tough, he let Pat White run the ball.  I believe he ran it 18 straight plays and forgot about the weapons he had on offense.  Even though WVU has a new O coordinator, Paul Rhodes will definitely have the scheme to stop WVU, and with faster SEC players I believe WVU will be limited to what they can do on offense.  WVU's offense goes with how well Pat White is playing.  White did not play against Cuse last week, so that game would not be indicative to what they would normally do against Cuse.
Bill Stewart was trying to figure out how to make field goals during that game as the special teams coach. I believe he is in way over his head with being a head coach this year.  There must be some reason that Stewart is only 1 of 2 assistant coaches that he didn't ask to go with him to Michigan.
 
I can't speak much to Auburn's offense (if there is one).  Their struggles are well documented, however WVU's defense is not at the same caliber of an SEC defense.  I think they should be able to put some points on the board.
My pick for what it is worth is the UNDER, and if you have to play a side, take the points.
 
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Posted: #104
If I play it will be UNDER..................
 
Auburn (4-3) at West Virginia (4-2)

DATE & TIME: Thursday, October 23rd, 7:30 p.m. (et).

FACTS & STATS: Site: Mountaineer Field (60,000) -- Morgantown, West Virginia. Television: ESPN. Home Record: Auburn 3-2, West Virginia 4-0. Away Record: Auburn 1-1, West Virginia 0-2. Neutral Record: Auburn 0-0, West Virginia 0-0. Conference Record: Auburn 2-3, West Virginia 2-0. Series Record: First-ever meeting.

GAME NOTES: The Auburn Tigers travel to Morgantown for a nationally-televised matchup with non-conference foe West Virginia. Auburn opened the season with three consecutive victories and figured to contend for the SEC title once again. Since then, however, the team has lost three of four games, and those three setbacks have come by a combined margin of nine points. The most recent setback occurred on October 11th by a 25-22 final to a struggling Arkansas club, and at 1-3 in conference it appears that Tommy Tuberville's group is already out of contention for the league title. As for West Virginia, its 4-2 record is a bit disappointing under first-year head coach Bill Stewart. Still, the Mountaineers are 4-0 at home and have won their last three outings, including a 17-6 decision over Syracuse in the most recent bout on October 11th. This game marks the first-ever meeting between Auburn and West Virginia on the gridiron.

Two weeks ago, Auburn fired offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who failed miserably in his effort to successfully implement the spread offense. In their first game without Franklin, the Tigers did not look any better as both Kodi Burns and Chris Todd struggled under center. Burns was intercepted twice and Todd was picked off one, while neither quarterback was able to complete 50 percent of his passes. Burns carried the ball 15 times as a runner, and while he did score a rushing touchdown, he finished with a mere 38 yards on the ground. The Tigers finished the contest with just 11 first downs and 193 total yards, embarrassing numbers for a once proud program. Auburn is averaging 19.1 ppg and 292.6 total ypg, and while it is convenient to heap all the blame on Franklin, the players simply have not performed to their ability. The Tigers are averaging 3.3 yards per rushing attempt, hard to believe considering the brilliant history of great tailbacks that have passed through the program.

Auburn yielded 416 total yards to Arkansas last time out, including a 63-yard run in the fourth quarter that proved to be the game winner. The Tigers did come up with three takeaways in the contest, but those big plays were overshadowed by a lackluster effort by the defense overall. The unit did not play well against the run or the pass, and the Razorbacks were able to hold the ball for more than 35 minutes. Opponents are scoring just 13.1 ppg against Auburn this season, as the Tigers have permitted only 11 touchdowns to opposing offenses in seven outings. Considering that foes are averaging 3.2 yards per rushing attempt and 9.7 yards per pass completion, it is fair to say that Auburn has been strong against both means of attack. Antonio Coleman is a player to watch for the Tigers, as he has already racked up nine TFLs, including five sacks, and has 11 quarterback hurries to his credit as well.

West Virginia quarterback Pat White missed the Syracuse game due to injury, forcing Jarrett Brown into the lineup. The backup signal caller threw a 12- yard touchdown pass to Jock Sanders in the second quarter, and while his 14 pass completions totaled a lowly 52 yards, Brown avoided throwing an interception. Clearly, the Mountaineers leaned on tailback Noel Devine, and he came through with a career-high 188 yards, including a stellar 92-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter to seal the victory. WVU finished with only 268 total yards and a time of possession of less than 25 minutes, but that production proved to be enough to claim the victory. White is officially listed as questionable for Thursday's contest, but many expect that he will play. West Virginia is only averaging 22.2 ppg and 342.2 total ypg this season, numbers that fall short of preseason expectations. White has completed 72.8 percent of his passes for 590 yards with nine touchdowns and only one interception. He has also rushed for 428 yards and two scores, proving to be one of the nation's elite dual-threat quarterbacks. Devine has rushed for 642 yards and two scores, and Sanders is the leading receiver with 211 yards and five touchdowns.

Give a ton of credit to the West Virginia defense for limiting Syracuse to six points on a pair of field goals. The Mountaineers did surrender 346 yards, but their overall play was solid, especially considering that they turned the Orange away on two of three trips to the red zone. Quinton Andrews led the way for the WVU defense with nine total tackles, while Mortty Ivy and Anthony Leonard posted eight stops apiece. Opponents are generating 14.7 ppg against West Virginia, which is allowing 320.8 total ypg. The Mountaineers are permitting 3.2 yards per rushing attempt and an even 10.0 yards per pass completion. They have registered 14 sacks and nine takeaways, but opponents are making good on 45 percent of their third down conversion attempts. Ivy has posted 46 total tackles, including four TFLs, and he has two interceptions to his credit.

West Virginia is the pick at home in what should be a low-scoring contest. White will likely return and lead his team to a hard-fought victory.

Predicted Outcome: West Virginia 14, Auburn 13

 
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Posted: #105
Let's not forget the weather factor here, people. It's only 56 degree right now where I'm at, and I see most folks around here shivering their butts off. The temperature forecast for tonight's game is around 44-48 degree. I'm a southerner, and can say that most of us cannot go, from a warm climate to a cold climate, in one day, and expect to function correctly.

I believe Auburn will go to their power-run game, burning the lock as they go. But they will not have scoring success on every drive, like most people think. When they are stuck in 3rd and long situation, will Burns be able to make the throws, I don't think so.

Auburn's defense will be up to the task of stopping the Mountaineers, but only for the 1st half. After that, the away game, factor with the temperature is going to take a toll on them. Auburn is really in a bad spot. Unless they can get a two score lead going into the half, I don't think they can hold off WV.

Someone on the main forum, said that Pat White is considering a MLB contract, and made not care enough to play this game to his fullest. He is the main factor to this game. Hell, he might even get hurt, in this game.

Either way, I don't think Auburn can put up more than 17pts, and if White plays half-ass, I don't see them scoring more than 17pts either.

Under sounds like a good play
 
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Posted: #106
not a final play, but i'm leaning towards WVU - 3, because i think auburn is the bait.
 
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Posted: #107
Pat White
 
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Posted: #108
T, bars in Baton Rouge are very cool....recommend Walk Ons which is walking distance from stadium or IVARS which you will need to drive to....lots and lots of fine women in btr and the ones who will be out on sat. night will not be thinking about the game at that point....trust me.  no upper deck for LSU student section, so at the very worst you will be at the top of the lower level...very few bad seats in that stadium except the upper decks....too high and the old one is too steep...got liquored up there one time and thought I was going over!!!!  won't do that again.

auburn now plus 3.5.  I lock in here....
 
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Posted: #109
Auburn by 7
 
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Posted: #110
People keep on bringing up how bad WVU looked against Syracuse but Pat White wasn't playing in that game and this offense is totally different when he's in there. They actually throw the ball down the field when he's in there and don't run a screen, option, or delay every play. Another thing to think about, WVU struggled against a horrible Syracuse team at home but still pulled out a win. That same week Auburn lost to a horrible Arkansas team at home. And until Auburn figures out what they're doing at quarterback I have to go with the healthy home team, giving up less than a field goal, with their best player back under center. And Auburn has a ton of injuries, mostly on the defensive side of the ball. Not good news for a team that relies on their defense more than any team in the country.
 
WVU -2.5
 
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Posted: #111
Quote Originally Posted by CallMeBruce:

Ooops, WV -2.5 (just checked and the line is -2.5).


WV -3. Im with you little dragon.
 
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Posted: #112
This line seems pretty dead on. I don't have much confidence in my Tigers this year. I hope they can prove me wrong and win this game SU. It should be a close, low scoring game.
 
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Posted: #113
NOW THE LINE IS WV -3.5
 
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Posted: #114
Easy cover for Auburn here. Pat White cant pass to save his life and when they try to run it they will be shutdown by Auburn's Defense. Not to mention that Auburn's last 5 games have been decided by 13 points. Auburn wins this one close....
           Auburn 17       WV  14
 
I Like the under here too....
                              
 
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Posted: #115
Quote Originally Posted by Irisheyez:

This is the SEC against the Big East boys and girls........the Big East has two half way legit teams this year......Pitt and S. Florida..........Rutgers is a joke, W Virgina hasn't done anything this year to be worthy of any backing against one of the best stastical defenses in the country!!!  I know both teams have one win ATS, but the Big East's weakness make UVW look much worse on paper.  Uconn, Syracuse, and L'ville????  Compared to the matchups in the SEC.  This game is a mismatch in team speed, physical ability and strength.  The Auburn Defense is just too much and this W Virginia team, like I have said on multiple threads before, this is not the team we have all got to know over the last couple years.  Rich Rod is gone and so is half the staff.......and so is Steve Slaton.  Pat White got knocked out of the last game they played with a head injury.  He isn't the same player with the same weapons. 
 
Auburn and then a parlay of equal value on Auburn(U) with N Mex tonight for me.  GL all!!

 

I'm with you on both sides tonight   , including the under in the New Mexico/Air Force game.

The public money is pretty mucvh 50/50% so I'm not worried about a trap game here. Capping this game straight-up results in an Auburn win by 6-10. Auburn's massive O-line will engulf the smallish WVU line at the point of attack all night long.

The only thing West Virginia has going for them is home-field advantage. Auburn will stack 8 in the box and force Pat White to beat them through the air...   I just don't see that happening.

Will post my plays when I get the lines from my bookie, but i'd take Auburn @ a pick, the points are just a bonus

 

 

 
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Posted: #116
Auburn +3@ West Viriginia.
I'm reading this thread because my usual guy just accepted a job and no longer posts in the forums. Here's what I see. No offense to most of you but the majority of the posts that I have seen have been ridiculously bad. Trends that don't matter, stats and discussions about coaches that don't matter. The ex defensive coordinator from Pitt coaches at Auburn is the best info I got from this thread. Also T-Rev...I like you comments but I would lean on those trends in the NFL more than I would in NCAA. Too much parody.

Personally I'm not completely sold on this line. It seems like if Auburn is having THAT MUCH trouble with their offense, and injuries they'd be about a 5-6 pt dog with Pat White coming back. White is missing play makers and his Head Coach that made him a Heisman candidate. He has not impressed me this year.

About the weather. Bro- its 2008 and if you cannot play in 45-50 degree conditions then you are not prepared to play in division 1 football. Not every player on Auburns team is from the south and the weather change will not have a huge effect on the line+3. HOWEVER, it would effect the total.

As for injuries. This IS the SEC we are talking about. Look up and down the depth chart of every majore team in the SEC. You will see that they are more than capable of playing 2 if not 3 deep and most positions, especially defense.

WVU:
-29th overall in passing efficiency
-20th in rushing (devine)
-Their leading pass catcher is a running back and he is 83rd overall in catches. And their leading yard getter thru the air isn't in the top 100 in yards p/g
-3rd down % is 42nd overall at 42%
-Pat White isn't even in the top 100 in passing yards.
-WVU is 38th in overall defense and 15th in scoring defense.
-25th in pass efficiency defense and not in the top 100 in rushing defense.

AUB
-100th in pass efficiency (Todd-but they run a dual qb system occasionally)
-53rd in rushing offense
-no receptions leader in top 100 or yards per game in top 100
-103rd in 3rd down %
-Chris Todd is 92nd in passing yards (keep in mind its by committee so 1/3 of auburns passing stats came from another qb
-Auburn is 14th in overall defense and 9th in scoring defense
-Auburn is 14th in pass efficiency defense and 25th in rushing defense.

Seems to me that Auburn will try to establish the run early and suffocate the WVU offense as much as possible. With West Virginia's subpar rushing defense I think that Ben Tate will have a big game with a rushing touchdown. I also believe that the first team to 20pts wins this game by the margin of the spread.

lean: Auburn+3 and Under38.
This is a matchup of two struggling offenses and new coaches. So what will be the major influence in this game...? Auburns defense. No doubt. I see a few turnovers and more 3 and outs for WVU and don't think that SEC coaches don't know the importance of special teams and field position. I expect Auburn to start slow but keep the edge in field position and get a decent road win on national television. Do I need to go over Thursday Night dog trends? Probably not but I can if you need it.

P.S. This is one of my first write ups other than just regular post responses. Let me know what you think, I can use the feedback. I spent less than an hour on this one, expect much more for future games.

bj


 
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Posted: #117
Key Info for Auburn/WV:
 
Auburn phenomenal on Thursday Nights, 6-1 last 7.  Great road dog:  6-2.  HC Tubberville phenomenal against run oriented teams, 7-0 against teams averaging over 5.25 ypc, and 9-2 against teams that gain over 200 yards a game.  HC Stewart a buffoon, can't handle game decisions, and HC Tubberville great off a bye.  Tigers most physical team the Mountaineers will see, and QB White will take some serious shots here.  Look for a KO tonight.  The Plus points is an absolute gift.  This stat applies as well:
Play Against - A home team (W VIRGINIA) - good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences.  38-16 in favor of the Tigers, 70 percent chance of covering. 
 
VERY KEY FACT:  The DC for Auburn is none other than Paul Rhoads.  Who's Paul Rhoads?  Well, he's the same guy that shut down Pat White last year with the 5th rated D in the naion, the Pitt Panthers, in their big upset.  He's got some real horses now, on his side of the ball, and look for some serious smash mouth from a disgruntled Tiger bunch.  The D is fine, and will rise in this national telecast.  Tigers plus 3 1/2 is very, very solid.  No surprise on a straight-up win.
 
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Posted: #118
I hate going against the dogs on Thursday night but it sounds like everybody is on AUBURN so gotta go against the current:

WVU -3.5

GL ALL
 
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Posted: #119
what do you all think about a parly with:
WV -3.5
Over 35
Airforce -5
 
????
 
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Posted: #120
Teasing Aub/NM 3 units
 
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Posted: #121
Quote Originally Posted by handicapped:

I hate going against the dogs on Thursday night but it sounds like everybody is on AUBURN so gotta go against the current:

WVU -3.5

GL ALL

Actually money on the game is around 50/50% look it up.

 

BjollyMemphis, nice write-up . Lot's of great information in there. You hit on a lot of the high points, Auburn will go out and try to establish the run against a small WVU defense. If Pat White can pass on Auburn it'll be close, if not Auburn by 7+. As soon as I saw this line I was all over Auburn, the betting public bets as if this is the West Virginia team of the last 3 years, it's not.

 

 
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Posted: #122
WVU -3 (2 units)

Thank me later

For more , take NM at +5
 
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Posted: #123
NoDogs :: I think that what you told me about the Monday game when you took Denver. I was on WV...no Im rethinking my choice.
 
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Posted: #124
 Tigers are receiving over 80 percent of the moneyline action.





sounds like a good enough reason to go WVU in this one.. GLTA
 
 
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Posted: #125
How the hell is Auburn going to win this whwn the cant score a fucking TD. There averaging 8 points on the road for the year and against Miss State and VANDY. You all are high WV -3. GL 
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