Vegas has tried to set traps in numerous games this season. I've already explained their trap odds numbers since UNLV against Miami Ohio. Western KY is a superior team, and one of the top teams in the USA conference is an underdog to a subdivision team like Delaware, in its first year in the USA conference. The only reason Delaware is favored because of 10 straight home wins, but that’s against teams that are not as explosive as Western KY. Trap me; I’ll fall for it.Western KY is clearly a better team than Delaware. After this game I will have another late game too. Let’s get this done.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Western KY +2.5 for max $5k
Vegas has tried to set traps in numerous games this season. I've already explained their trap odds numbers since UNLV against Miami Ohio. Western KY is a superior team, and one of the top teams in the USA conference is an underdog to a subdivision team like Delaware, in its first year in the USA conference. The only reason Delaware is favored because of 10 straight home wins, but that’s against teams that are not as explosive as Western KY. Trap me; I’ll fall for it.Western KY is clearly a better team than Delaware. After this game I will have another late game too. Let’s get this done.
Western KY pass defense is good, and Delaware struggles against strong offense. Western KY has covered in 4 of 5 games and has a more balanced offense. Delaware hasn’t covered as a favorite of 2.5+ points this season.
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Western KY pass defense is good, and Delaware struggles against strong offense. Western KY has covered in 4 of 5 games and has a more balanced offense. Delaware hasn’t covered as a favorite of 2.5+ points this season.
we are on the same side on this one, so i hope you win. kind of concerned that sam houston state dropped 24 on wku. the delaware d has given up points as well. i have a little on wk +2.5, but thinking about dropping a little on the over as well. i just don't see how delaware slows down wk. the only real chance they would have is a shootout imo. i just look at lines like this and ask myself, why would delaware be favs? the action will be heavy on wk with that spread. that normally means we are about to be separated from our money. anyways, we are on the same side here, so good luck to us.
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we are on the same side on this one, so i hope you win. kind of concerned that sam houston state dropped 24 on wku. the delaware d has given up points as well. i have a little on wk +2.5, but thinking about dropping a little on the over as well. i just don't see how delaware slows down wk. the only real chance they would have is a shootout imo. i just look at lines like this and ask myself, why would delaware be favs? the action will be heavy on wk with that spread. that normally means we are about to be separated from our money. anyways, we are on the same side here, so good luck to us.
As we thought about Western Kentucky, we wondered if there was anything else that couldn't be true. It seems too easy to take Western Kentucky. They are a seasoned FBS program. Delaware is in its first year at this level. Why are Western Kentucky underdogs to Delaware? Vegas enjoyed playing mind games. People had so many questions about how it couldn't be this easy; there had to be a trap, and they seemed to doubt by overanalyzing and overthinking, so they chose to bet on bad teams instead, like last night. This season I have won so many games that Vegas odds make no sense, but it made sense because they were to trap people who are doubtful and overthinkers.
Don't worry, we are on the right side with a better team. They will win this game. Western Kentucky is a seasoned FBS program. Delaware is in its first year at this level. Vegas to trap us to take Delaware? Not so fast. We already know the better team will win in a close matchup.
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@monkeybutt
As we thought about Western Kentucky, we wondered if there was anything else that couldn't be true. It seems too easy to take Western Kentucky. They are a seasoned FBS program. Delaware is in its first year at this level. Why are Western Kentucky underdogs to Delaware? Vegas enjoyed playing mind games. People had so many questions about how it couldn't be this easy; there had to be a trap, and they seemed to doubt by overanalyzing and overthinking, so they chose to bet on bad teams instead, like last night. This season I have won so many games that Vegas odds make no sense, but it made sense because they were to trap people who are doubtful and overthinkers.
Don't worry, we are on the right side with a better team. They will win this game. Western Kentucky is a seasoned FBS program. Delaware is in its first year at this level. Vegas to trap us to take Delaware? Not so fast. We already know the better team will win in a close matchup.
@Ilovefootballs Given your style you must be salivating over New Mexico in the late game.
If you can read my mind, that is good, but I did a deep dive into New Mexico vs. San Jose State. I didn’t like the fact that New Mexico has struggled on the road in past seasons, especially in conference play. San Jose State runs a high tempo, pass heavy offense that can wear down defenses. New Mexico’s defense has been solid, but they haven’t faced a team that throws 40+ times per game. Coming off a heartbreaking 30–29 loss to Stanford, the Spartans are hungry. Teams often play sharper after close losses, especially at home.
I have another team so that we don’t have to sweat, and I will post later. This one is easy money.
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Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
@Ilovefootballs Given your style you must be salivating over New Mexico in the late game.
If you can read my mind, that is good, but I did a deep dive into New Mexico vs. San Jose State. I didn’t like the fact that New Mexico has struggled on the road in past seasons, especially in conference play. San Jose State runs a high tempo, pass heavy offense that can wear down defenses. New Mexico’s defense has been solid, but they haven’t faced a team that throws 40+ times per game. Coming off a heartbreaking 30–29 loss to Stanford, the Spartans are hungry. Teams often play sharper after close losses, especially at home.
I have another team so that we don’t have to sweat, and I will post later. This one is easy money.
Current Win Streak: San José State – 3 straight wins (2019–2023).
Recent Matchups
Year Winner Score Location 2023 San José State 52–24 San Jose, CA 2022 San José State 38–21 Albuquerque, NM 2021 San José State 34–17 San Jose, CA 2020 San José State 38–21 Albuquerque, NM 2019 San José State 32–21 San Jose, CA
Good luck
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Quote Originally Posted by camby700:
Love SJST Bol bruh
SJSU has won 11 of the last 13 meetings.
Current Win Streak: San José State – 3 straight wins (2019–2023).
Recent Matchups
Year Winner Score Location 2023 San José State 52–24 San Jose, CA 2022 San José State 38–21 Albuquerque, NM 2021 San José State 34–17 San Jose, CA 2020 San José State 38–21 Albuquerque, NM 2019 San José State 32–21 San Jose, CA
Delaware has impressed as a new FBS team, Western KY opponents have had stronger power ratings and more consistent success. Western KY schedule is ranked 21 spots higher in difficulty so far.
Western KY faced Toledo, a MAC title contender, on the road. Missouri State and Sam Houston are both physical. Delaware’s toughest game was Colorado, which ended in a blowout loss 31–7.
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Quote Originally Posted by juveunits:
I feel like Deleware has had the tougher schedule
Delaware has impressed as a new FBS team, Western KY opponents have had stronger power ratings and more consistent success. Western KY schedule is ranked 21 spots higher in difficulty so far.
Western KY faced Toledo, a MAC title contender, on the road. Missouri State and Sam Houston are both physical. Delaware’s toughest game was Colorado, which ended in a blowout loss 31–7.
Vegas has no respect for Western Kentucky in comparison to the newcomer Delaware, something that did not make sense to me. Western Kentucky is a top USA conference team, not a pushover. something we haven't seen in five weeks? I’m falling for the Vegas Trap. Trick me or treat me? I’m all for it. We shall see it again tonight.
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Vegas has no respect for Western Kentucky in comparison to the newcomer Delaware, something that did not make sense to me. Western Kentucky is a top USA conference team, not a pushover. something we haven't seen in five weeks? I’m falling for the Vegas Trap. Trick me or treat me? I’m all for it. We shall see it again tonight.
I know you wonder what about AI picks for this game, and here I’m sharing with you the AI picks.
Why Western Kentucky Is the Better Bet
• QB Maverick McIvor: 1,157 yards, 10 TDs — leads a pass-heavy offense that ranks top 25 nationally in scoring. • Defense: WKU ranks 13th in the country in completion rate allowed (just 54.87%) A. • ATS Record: WKU is 4–1 against the spread this season — consistently outperforming expectations A. • Delaware’s Weakness: Their defense allows a 68.57% completion rate, and they’ve struggled against explosive passing teams A.
• ? Take WKU on the Moneyline (+120) • ? Avoid the spread — neither team plays close games • ? Lean Under 61.5 — WKU has gone under in 2 straight
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WKU’s defense and passing efficiency give them the edge in what should be a fast-paced but controlled game.
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@KasperNV
I know you wonder what about AI picks for this game, and here I’m sharing with you the AI picks.
Why Western Kentucky Is the Better Bet
• QB Maverick McIvor: 1,157 yards, 10 TDs — leads a pass-heavy offense that ranks top 25 nationally in scoring. • Defense: WKU ranks 13th in the country in completion rate allowed (just 54.87%) A. • ATS Record: WKU is 4–1 against the spread this season — consistently outperforming expectations A. • Delaware’s Weakness: Their defense allows a 68.57% completion rate, and they’ve struggled against explosive passing teams A.
@KasperNV I know you wonder what about AI picks for this game, and here I’m sharing with you the AI picks. Why Western Kentucky Is the Better Bet • QB Maverick McIvor: 1,157 yards, 10 TDs — leads a pass-heavy offense that ranks top 25 nationally in scoring.• Defense: WKU ranks 13th in the country in completion rate allowed (just 54.87%) A.• ATS Record: WKU is 4–1 against the spread this season — consistently outperforming expectations A.• Delaware’s Weakness: Their defense allows a 68.57% completion rate, and they’ve struggled against explosive passing teams A. --- ?? Vegas Odds Snapshot • Spread: Delaware -2.5• Moneyline: WKU +120 | Delaware -145• Over/Under: 61.5• Prediction: WKU 31, Delaware 24 A --- ?? Best Bet Tonight • ? Take WKU on the Moneyline (+120)• ? Avoid the spread — neither team plays close games• ? Lean Under 61.5 — WKU has gone under in 2 straight --- WKU’s defense and passing efficiency give them the edge in what should be a fast-paced but controlled game.
Thanks for the info. Both teams have wins against below 500 teams however Deleware knocked off Uconn who I think was the best win between them both. Im not sold on W Kentucky this year. BOL. How has AI been doing?
Second mouse gets the cheese.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ilovefootballs:
@KasperNV I know you wonder what about AI picks for this game, and here I’m sharing with you the AI picks. Why Western Kentucky Is the Better Bet • QB Maverick McIvor: 1,157 yards, 10 TDs — leads a pass-heavy offense that ranks top 25 nationally in scoring.• Defense: WKU ranks 13th in the country in completion rate allowed (just 54.87%) A.• ATS Record: WKU is 4–1 against the spread this season — consistently outperforming expectations A.• Delaware’s Weakness: Their defense allows a 68.57% completion rate, and they’ve struggled against explosive passing teams A. --- ?? Vegas Odds Snapshot • Spread: Delaware -2.5• Moneyline: WKU +120 | Delaware -145• Over/Under: 61.5• Prediction: WKU 31, Delaware 24 A --- ?? Best Bet Tonight • ? Take WKU on the Moneyline (+120)• ? Avoid the spread — neither team plays close games• ? Lean Under 61.5 — WKU has gone under in 2 straight --- WKU’s defense and passing efficiency give them the edge in what should be a fast-paced but controlled game.
Thanks for the info. Both teams have wins against below 500 teams however Deleware knocked off Uconn who I think was the best win between them both. Im not sold on W Kentucky this year. BOL. How has AI been doing?
Western Kentucky has a very strong chance to win tonight’s game against Delaware — and here’s why the matchup tilts in their favor:
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?? Western Kentucky’s Edge – Strength Breakdown
1. Elite Quarterback Play
• Maverick McIvor is averaging over 230 passing yards/game with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs. • Delaware’s defense allows a 68.6% completion rate, one of the worst in Conference USA — McIvor should feast.
2. Explosive Offense
• WKU ranks top 25 nationally in scoring and top 20 in passing efficiency. • They’ve scored 30+ points in 4 of 5 games — Delaware hasn’t faced an offense this fast-paced yet.
3. Defensive Matchup
• WKU’s defense allows just 54.9% completions — 13th best in the country. • Delaware QB Ryan O’Connor has struggled under pressure and threw 2 picks vs UConn.
4. Momentum & Experience
• WKU is 4–1 ATS this season and has played tougher opponents (Toledo, Missouri State). • Delaware is still adjusting to FBS speed — WKU’s tempo and depth will expose that.
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?? Vegas Confidence
• Moneyline: WKU +120 (underdog, but sharp bettors are leaning Hilltoppers) • Spread: Delaware -2.5 (but line movement favors WKU) • Over/Under: 61.5 — WKU likely pushes this over
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?? Confidence Meter: 8.5/10
• WKU has the better QB, better defense, and more explosive weapons. • Delaware’s home field helps, but WKU’s experience and tempo should take over by the second half.
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AI prediction:
Western Kentucky has a very strong chance to win tonight’s game against Delaware — and here’s why the matchup tilts in their favor:
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?? Western Kentucky’s Edge – Strength Breakdown
1. Elite Quarterback Play
• Maverick McIvor is averaging over 230 passing yards/game with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs. • Delaware’s defense allows a 68.6% completion rate, one of the worst in Conference USA — McIvor should feast.
2. Explosive Offense
• WKU ranks top 25 nationally in scoring and top 20 in passing efficiency. • They’ve scored 30+ points in 4 of 5 games — Delaware hasn’t faced an offense this fast-paced yet.
3. Defensive Matchup
• WKU’s defense allows just 54.9% completions — 13th best in the country. • Delaware QB Ryan O’Connor has struggled under pressure and threw 2 picks vs UConn.
4. Momentum & Experience
• WKU is 4–1 ATS this season and has played tougher opponents (Toledo, Missouri State). • Delaware is still adjusting to FBS speed — WKU’s tempo and depth will expose that.
---
?? Vegas Confidence
• Moneyline: WKU +120 (underdog, but sharp bettors are leaning Hilltoppers) • Spread: Delaware -2.5 (but line movement favors WKU) • Over/Under: 61.5 — WKU likely pushes this over
---
?? Confidence Meter: 8.5/10
• WKU has the better QB, better defense, and more explosive weapons. • Delaware’s home field helps, but WKU’s experience and tempo should take over by the second half.
AI has still been doing great at over 65%, but I’m not going to share AI picks because it’s still in the testing and trial phase. If you are interested in this Saturday, I will share just for FYI.
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@KasperNV
AI has still been doing great at over 65%, but I’m not going to share AI picks because it’s still in the testing and trial phase. If you are interested in this Saturday, I will share just for FYI.
Linemakers did not set W.Kentucky as dogs they opened them as a -1.5 favorite. Wiseguys and Sharps moved that line to where it is now thinking they know more about this game then the bookmakers. We shall see
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Linemakers did not set W.Kentucky as dogs they opened them as a -1.5 favorite. Wiseguys and Sharps moved that line to where it is now thinking they know more about this game then the bookmakers. We shall see
Linemakers did not set W.Kentucky as dogs they opened them as a -1.5 favorite. Wiseguys and Sharps moved that line to where it is now thinking they know more about this game then the bookmakers. We shall see
The line movement reflects market dynamics, not a verdict on who’s better. Saying “sharps know more than bookmakers” oversimplifies a complex process. Western Kentucky opened as a slight favorite, but the line flipped because Delaware’s metrics and home field drew money not because Western Kentucky was misrated. Their win over UConn and strong metrics have boosted their market rating. That’s part of why the line flipped not just “wiseguys thinking they know more.”
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Quote Originally Posted by daTownDrunk:
Linemakers did not set W.Kentucky as dogs they opened them as a -1.5 favorite. Wiseguys and Sharps moved that line to where it is now thinking they know more about this game then the bookmakers. We shall see
The line movement reflects market dynamics, not a verdict on who’s better. Saying “sharps know more than bookmakers” oversimplifies a complex process. Western Kentucky opened as a slight favorite, but the line flipped because Delaware’s metrics and home field drew money not because Western Kentucky was misrated. Their win over UConn and strong metrics have boosted their market rating. That’s part of why the line flipped not just “wiseguys thinking they know more.”
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