Quote Originally Posted by daTownDrunk: Linemakers did not set W.Kentucky as dogs they opened them as a -1.5 favorite. Wiseguys and Sharps moved that line to where it is now thinking they know more about this game then the bookmakers. We shall see The line movement reflects market dynamics, not a verdict on who’s better. Saying “sharps know more than bookmakers” oversimplifies a complex process. Western Kentucky opened as a slight favorite, but the line flipped because Delaware’s metrics and home field drew money not because Western Kentucky was misrated. Their win over UConn and strong metrics have boosted their market rating. That’s part of why the line flipped not just “wiseguys thinking they know more.”
Perception vs. Reality
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Quote Originally Posted by Ilovefootballs:
Quote Originally Posted by daTownDrunk: Linemakers did not set W.Kentucky as dogs they opened them as a -1.5 favorite. Wiseguys and Sharps moved that line to where it is now thinking they know more about this game then the bookmakers. We shall see The line movement reflects market dynamics, not a verdict on who’s better. Saying “sharps know more than bookmakers” oversimplifies a complex process. Western Kentucky opened as a slight favorite, but the line flipped because Delaware’s metrics and home field drew money not because Western Kentucky was misrated. Their win over UConn and strong metrics have boosted their market rating. That’s part of why the line flipped not just “wiseguys thinking they know more.”
@Ilovefootballs What about sprinkling more on the ML? It is now at +120 I’ve also went New Mexico State ML and the under 52.5 yesterday. I don’t see why not do the same here but slightly might be over ?
I already bet last night on Western Kentucky +2.5 for $5k and $1k + 1/2 on the first half. Why not ML for $120?. I don’t see why Western Kentucky is not going to destroy Delaware. The only reason Delaware is favored is because of their win against UConn. The wrong team is favored again.
Congrats on your wins last night.
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Quote Originally Posted by BANKROLLFRESH:
@Ilovefootballs What about sprinkling more on the ML? It is now at +120 I’ve also went New Mexico State ML and the under 52.5 yesterday. I don’t see why not do the same here but slightly might be over ?
I already bet last night on Western Kentucky +2.5 for $5k and $1k + 1/2 on the first half. Why not ML for $120?. I don’t see why Western Kentucky is not going to destroy Delaware. The only reason Delaware is favored is because of their win against UConn. The wrong team is favored again.
8 of 10 Delaware wins came against FCS opponents that not comparable to Western Kentucky’s level. Only UConn was an FBS win and it took overtime. Delaware has not faced a team with WKU’s passing attack or defensive metrics at home during this streak and tonight’s game is the first real test of how Delaware handles a full speed FBS program with bowl level talent.
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8 of 10 Delaware wins came against FCS opponents that not comparable to Western Kentucky’s level. Only UConn was an FBS win and it took overtime. Delaware has not faced a team with WKU’s passing attack or defensive metrics at home during this streak and tonight’s game is the first real test of how Delaware handles a full speed FBS program with bowl level talent.
@ [Unapproved link]Good post about the Sam Houston vs New Mexico State game. Sam Houston had no reason being a favorite on the road at 0-4 and playing awful so far this season. The game ended up turning into a blowout as expected. I bet big on the money line on New Mexico State.
I'm also taking Western Kentucky money line in tonight's game. Western Kentucky's passing attack will have Delaware overmatched against their poor secondary. Only chance Delaware has is if they control the ground game and keep Western Kentucky's high powered air attack off the field.
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@ [Unapproved link]Good post about the Sam Houston vs New Mexico State game. Sam Houston had no reason being a favorite on the road at 0-4 and playing awful so far this season. The game ended up turning into a blowout as expected. I bet big on the money line on New Mexico State.
I'm also taking Western Kentucky money line in tonight's game. Western Kentucky's passing attack will have Delaware overmatched against their poor secondary. Only chance Delaware has is if they control the ground game and keep Western Kentucky's high powered air attack off the field.
Just for an opposing view, this is from "Greengrass" This is not to put your pick down at all. Only to voice a different reason to take the other side......BOL tonite.
WKU
TOP 4 WRs gone
1 of 4 TOP RUSHERS RETURNED (2nd)
TOP 12 TACKLERS gone
NEW OC & QB tandem
Why I don't like them on the road with DELAWARE coming off a BYE followed with ANOTHER BYE. Playing on a nationally televised stage...nah.
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Just for an opposing view, this is from "Greengrass" This is not to put your pick down at all. Only to voice a different reason to take the other side......BOL tonite.
WKU
TOP 4 WRs gone
1 of 4 TOP RUSHERS RETURNED (2nd)
TOP 12 TACKLERS gone
NEW OC & QB tandem
Why I don't like them on the road with DELAWARE coming off a BYE followed with ANOTHER BYE. Playing on a nationally televised stage...nah.
Just for an opposing view, this is from "Greengrass" This is not to put your pick down at all. Only to voice a different reason to take the other side......BOL tonite. WKU TOP 4 WRs gone 1 of 4 TOP RUSHERS RETURNED (2nd) TOP 12 TACKLERS gone NEW OC & QB tandem Why I don't like them on the road with DELAWARE coming off a BYE followed with ANOTHER BYE. Playing on a nationally televised stage...nah.
Oh wow I don’t know about that, and it’s news to me, and thanks for telling me. When are you going to take your negative, as always, out of my post, dude? You are full of negativity; it doesn’t matter how you construct your views. Always negative.
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Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:
Just for an opposing view, this is from "Greengrass" This is not to put your pick down at all. Only to voice a different reason to take the other side......BOL tonite. WKU TOP 4 WRs gone 1 of 4 TOP RUSHERS RETURNED (2nd) TOP 12 TACKLERS gone NEW OC & QB tandem Why I don't like them on the road with DELAWARE coming off a BYE followed with ANOTHER BYE. Playing on a nationally televised stage...nah.
Oh wow I don’t know about that, and it’s news to me, and thanks for telling me. When are you going to take your negative, as always, out of my post, dude? You are full of negativity; it doesn’t matter how you construct your views. Always negative.
Oh wow I don’t know about that, and it’s news to me, and thanks for telling me. When are you going to take your negative, as always, out of my post, dude? You are full of negativity; it doesn’t matter how you construct your views. Always negative.[/Quote]
You are just paranoid. I honestly just wanted to share this viewpoint which can help people make up their mind on betting this game. I mostly agree with
your views on the game by the way. Reading "Greengrass", I thought he had some good points to share with the forum, as well as yours. This is
a place to discuss different points of view without getting angry. Lets both support getting as much GOOD information on these games to make a
good decision. No negativity......... Fair enough?
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Oh wow I don’t know about that, and it’s news to me, and thanks for telling me. When are you going to take your negative, as always, out of my post, dude? You are full of negativity; it doesn’t matter how you construct your views. Always negative.[/Quote]
You are just paranoid. I honestly just wanted to share this viewpoint which can help people make up their mind on betting this game. I mostly agree with
your views on the game by the way. Reading "Greengrass", I thought he had some good points to share with the forum, as well as yours. This is
a place to discuss different points of view without getting angry. Lets both support getting as much GOOD information on these games to make a
good decision. No negativity......... Fair enough?
One would argue that they we're into their 1st cpl games and we're coming together. Their defense looked exceptional last week even though they gave up 20+ points. I look for WKU to come out explosive, stop the run and have at least 2 interceptions
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@monkeybutt
One would argue that they we're into their 1st cpl games and we're coming together. Their defense looked exceptional last week even though they gave up 20+ points. I look for WKU to come out explosive, stop the run and have at least 2 interceptions
I went big on Delaware. 20-3 at home last 23, off a bye week and first nationally televised home game in prime time as an FBS school. WKU just gave up 214 yards rushing to FCS Missouri st, gave up 207 the week before vs a bad Nevada team, and gave up 307 on the ground to Toledo week before that.
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I went big on Delaware. 20-3 at home last 23, off a bye week and first nationally televised home game in prime time as an FBS school. WKU just gave up 214 yards rushing to FCS Missouri st, gave up 207 the week before vs a bad Nevada team, and gave up 307 on the ground to Toledo week before that.
Wiseguys and sharps move lines . that guy posted alot of habiti boom blah . I ain’t hear a word you said. Hippity hoop la
Habiti boom blah? Sound like you summoned a Pokémon. Wiseguys movin’ lines, you movin’ nonsense. Stay sharp or stay silent. All I heard was static, my guy. Try again in English.
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Quote Originally Posted by daTownDrunk:
Wiseguys and sharps move lines . that guy posted alot of habiti boom blah . I ain’t hear a word you said. Hippity hoop la
Habiti boom blah? Sound like you summoned a Pokémon. Wiseguys movin’ lines, you movin’ nonsense. Stay sharp or stay silent. All I heard was static, my guy. Try again in English.
Madduxsports.com which gets there lines from Bookmaker.com has Del -1 as the opening and currently - 2.5. In terms of total off, total def, sagarin rank and schedule strength the only thing Del is better in is sched strength slightly . Looking at history, where the opening line is - 1 along with similar scenario - the limited data i have indicates Wky and under. I’m with ya Bol to us .
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Madduxsports.com which gets there lines from Bookmaker.com has Del -1 as the opening and currently - 2.5. In terms of total off, total def, sagarin rank and schedule strength the only thing Del is better in is sched strength slightly . Looking at history, where the opening line is - 1 along with similar scenario - the limited data i have indicates Wky and under. I’m with ya Bol to us .
@KasperNV AI has still been doing great at over 65%, but I’m not going to share AI picks because it’s still in the testing and trial phase. If you are interested in this Saturday, I will share just for FYI.
hopefully AI likes vandy. Thank you for sharing
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Quote Originally Posted by Ilovefootballs:
@KasperNV AI has still been doing great at over 65%, but I’m not going to share AI picks because it’s still in the testing and trial phase. If you are interested in this Saturday, I will share just for FYI.
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