week 8

45-30 so far this season.

Observations....watched the B10 games, many of them...still a slugfest now, even with the former Pac 12 teams in the league.  One would think the Bryce Underwood era is over in Michigan, when his backup basically won the game for Michigan versus the Lions,...I am not privy to the goings-on there, however when someone is being paid a few million to be the savior of your university football team, maybe that gets in the way of logical thinking....Underwood can't play, neither can Manning at Texas, nor Jackson Arnold at UNLV nor the former Nebraska  5 star guy that's the backup now at Oregon.  Schools that keep trotting guys out there that were 5 stars coming out of high school that can't play can be gifts from the gambling gods.

Maybe they look good getting off the bus, or they can throw a football 80 yards.,,,,like a lot of things there's an art and a science to playing the position, and they don't have it.

If Michigan decides to start Underwood versus the Hoosiers, I'll be on Indiana.....it will show that the powers-that-be in Michigan football are imbeciles and we'll make  money fading them.

This week is much tougher than last week....I left about four games that qualified for plays on the table, and they all won.  Many fewer games than last week....however while the NFL has not been good to me (which is why I don't post games for the NFL anymore), I've figured a couple of things out and have done well in the pros recently, and there'll be a ton to choose from this week.

Plays:

1)  New Mexico -4

2)  FAU -10

3)  San Jose State +5'

4)  Tulane +2'

leans and/or qualifiers.....Indiana, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Houston

Good luck Indigo.  

@Indigo999

 If you don't mind me asking what you figured out from the pros? 

keep up all the great work!!

 Thanks for the work and input to the forum. Always appreciated.

Ole Miss vs. Texas -5.5. Rebels look like a live one in this match-up. Their defense showed up last week vs. a pretty good offense. Arch and the Horns are overhyped and overrated, as you stated. Trinidad is the QB with the talent. I think he'll show up Saturday night.

What's your take on this game?

Thanks,RT2

I use numbers to evaluate and make plays.  Those point towards Texas this week, they are an indicated play....however I dislike the Texas team, quarterback and coach this season, so I didn't make them a play.  You are asking about making a play based on matchups, and recent form, which is not my forte and things have gone badly in the past when I've done so.

I very rarely make plays from watching two teams and actually have a better record when I haven't seen the two team in prior weeks.

The only other thing I'll do is to take teams based on who their head coach is, which I've done successfully this season....Belichick, Ferentz and the Chesney are coaches that I will back and would not go against them even if their present opponent is indicated as a play.  Cignetti is another

UCLA is a in a bad situation this week based on a 30 year historical situation, so I won't back them.  Iowa is indicated, but have not pulled the trigger on them

a)  Week 8 away dogs of less than 13 points have covered 54.9% of their games...430-353-11 ATS (+0.9)....if our away dog has greater or equal losses in comparison to their present opponent, this moves to 56%.

If we eliminate away dogs that have won their past two road games, this moves to 56.8%.

We eliminate ranked teams (Houston).

If we then eliminate away dogs with the better defense in comparison to their present opponent,  based on points allowed per game, this moves to 209-139-3 ATS (+2.3), 60.1%, using gimmethedog.....as happens with this website, those indicated teams are not listed this week.

When using killersports, we get 134-96-3 ATS, 58.8%......ON NDSU, ODU, Syracuse, Iowa State, Eastern Michigan, Akron, Eastern Carolina, MO State, MTSU

Query text.....AD and line<13 and month=10 and week=8  and tS(W@A, N=2)<2 and t:losses>=o:losses and tA(o:points)>oA(o:points)  and rank=None

Here is the angle briefly mentioned earlier in regards to UCLA......

b)  A team off a sequence of away dog win, home favorite win, now home favorites of less than 16 points have gone 66-93 ATS in conference play, 41.5%.....VERSUS Buffalo, UCLA

Query text.....pp:ADW and p:HFW and HF and C and line > -16 

Adding:

5)  North Texas -2

__________________________

1)  FAU -10

2)  New Mexico -4

3)  Tulane +2'

4)  San Jose State +5'

News is that Bryce Underwood will not start this weekend versus Indiana.....unless something catastrophic happens to the new guy, he will never start another game at Michigan.

Can't back the Hoosiers now, as the 2 or 3 turnovers you'd count on for Michigan may not happen.

NFL angle.......

c)  Play VERSUS a home divisional favorite before week 9 that will be playing their next game on Thursday.....8-30-3 ATS (-5.7), 18-23 straight up (-0.9)....VERSUS Panthers

Those home favorites have gone 0-10-2 ATS in weeks 7/8.

Query text (gimmethedog).....HF and n:day=Thursday and DIV and week < 9 

d)  A ranked home favorite in October of between 14 and 21 points, playing an unranked foe with a greater than 7 points/game average ats margin advantage over their present opponent......21-45-1 ATS (-2.1),.........18-36 o/u (-4.3)....VERSUS Northwestern and UNDER

Northwestern this season is 4-2 ATS (+10.33)

Rutgers is 3-3 ATS (-3.5)

On the other hand, those teams in the same situation as a ranked home favorite of between 14 and 21 points playing an unranked foe who have less than a 7 points/game advantage have gone 44-32 ATS......ON SMU, Miami

e)  Teams in October with a line between -13 and +13 off an upset of a top 15 team as;

  1)  home dogs.....7-15 ATS....VERSUS Auburn

  2)  away dogs......18-22 ATS...VERSUS Tennessee

  3)  away favorites.....17-11 ATS...ON BYU

f)  Home FBS favorites of less in 13 points in October week 8 that will be underdogs their next game.....111-159-5 ATS (-2.1), 41.1%.......VERSUS Tulsa, FAU, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Kentucky, Buffalo, Nevada

Plays.....

Adding:

6)  Duke +2

7)  TCU -9'

5)  North Texas -2

4)  New Mexico -4

3)  Tulane +2'

2)  FAU -10

1)  San Jose +5'

sir are these ranked in an order of best to last

thanx for posting always

I am fading the  calculated averages between the two teams.

For example, if Team A has an average scoring averages of scoring 23 points/game and allowing 20 points, that is an average +3 differential.

If their present opponent, Team B's scoring averages are scoring 20 points and allowing 22 points, that is -2 points/game.

On a neutral field Team A is 5 points better (we subtract, we don't average the two teams).  If Team A is at home we give two points for home field....they should be 7 point home favorites.  

What if Vegas makes Team A a 3.5 point favorite?  We take Team A, right?

No, we fade the calculation and take Team B when there is more that a two point differential between what we calculate and what Vegas has put up.  We use 5-6 game calculations and a 6 game rolling average.

The premise is that Vegas' line making is superior to what we can calculate and that the basis of all life is that that things will more than likely change, including the form of two football teams, rather than stay the same.

Another example of that is in the NFL last season after week 8, teams with less than 37% of the public on them had an 80% hit rate.

I don't rank the plays, and with one exception this season I play them all for the same amount.

I played UCLA last week for 2.5 times more than any other bet, which came through.

I am a bit superstitious about proclaiming a large play and on this site I won't mention if/when I am going more on a certain game.....this week they're all the same amount.

Thanks for checking in....

thanx for responding

yeah don't blame you there are 

alot of a'holes on here who are looking

to blame anyone for a bad pick but never credit 

for the time and effort you and all others put into this

thank you RK

Another resource for bettors is the CBS Sports expert section....if we are not good at picking NFL games, look for someone to fade.

There is one expert that is a winner out of the 7.....Eisenberg who actually is quite good.....the rest of them are a combined 241-305 against the spread....44%.  They are just not poor this season, but they are bad consistently, year after year.

I've looked at when one team has only one or zero experts on one team, which works, though there are seldom more than 2 or 3 situations like that, in any given week.

NFL angle.....

g)  Unbeaten away dogs after week 6 on Monday night.......9-4 ATS....ON Chiefs

Chiefs have a history under Mahomes/Reid of being good as underdogs.....however I have a very good >61% angle that indicates Seattle is the play.....away dogs of less than 8 points that outrush their opponent cover 67% of the time in the NFL,....which looks likely since the Seahawks have no rushing attack this season and the Chiefs excel at running the ball.

Chiefs are playing on SNF or doesn't it matter with this trend?