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***week 4 plays and analysis ****

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Posted: #76
Love the plays for week 4.....any thoughts on the Texas game after UCLA won last week and they are just simply awful....
 
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Posted: #77
Quote Originally Posted by Mozart:

Locknload ~~

I truly appreciate the effort and work that you have put into your own capping here, as well as your generous sharing of your picks.

Your team capping reports are very well-written and the colors make them very easy to read. I'm an editor on a couple of websites and I'll be the last one on Earth to make a fuss over any word -- making such a fuss is a great route to get in a hissy-fit, booing rout by the astute members of this board, yes? 

Ok, I'm mulling over the TCU/SMU game today and I'm nervous about SMU doing a backdoor and blowing the cover, like how it happened with the damn USC game where Minny came back and scored a damn junk TD with 20 seconds left, blowing my damn point spread by a half a freak'n point! @%#^#$^%!

And I had forgotten to shave a half a point (half a point up or down is all that my bookie -- a casino that is only an 8-minute walk away in beautiful forests -- allows) to bring it down from -11.5 to -11.0. And I had bet big on that one. Damn, that still stings to this day.

And I had bet big on Oakland recently, only to have the sure-to-fade White Sox come back and beat Oakland in the very last inning. I hate bad beats!

So I'm leaning strongly on going with a first-half bet for TCU to cover at -10 and for Over the total at 27 pts. And I may do a parlay with those two bets, too. And I have one good baseball bet to do also today.

Any comments by anyone about the idea of going first half only with the TCU/SMU game?


Has a helluva lot of logic. Then again, Oregon kicked the shit out of Tennessee in the 2nd half after an anemic start. The danger? SMU comes out fired up for their hometown folks and look like superstars before TCU's talent level eventually suppresses SMU's emotional start and TCU doesn't get it done straight away. Consider this, TCU 42-21 vs. spread since 2005.

Happy Hunting!
 
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Posted: #78

Quote Originally Posted by 222bad:

Nice start for you also, LNL. BOL on tonights game.                   

Thanks 222  Good luck to you sir

 
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Posted: #79

Quote Originally Posted by beatthelocal:

Love the plays for week 4.....any thoughts on the Texas game after UCLA won last week and they are just simply awful....

staying away from this game.  I think there are others that have much more value than these two teams.  I don't like UCLA nor Texas.  Just a bad matchup to figure out. 

 
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Posted: #80

Quote Originally Posted by callmetim:



Has a helluva lot of logic. Then again, Oregon kicked the shit out of Tennessee in the 2nd half after an anemic start. The danger? SMU comes out fired up for their hometown folks and look like superstars before TCU's talent level eventually suppresses SMU's emotional start and TCU doesn't get it done straight away. Consider this, TCU 42-21 vs. spread since 2005.

Happy Hunting!

Some very good points by both but I like TCU to cover in this one

 
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Posted: #81
GL this weekend Mozart.  In an answer to your question: I looked at VTech/BC long and hard this week and the problem is not with BC's defense, it is their offense that is suspect.  As you know from years past, being from Boston, BC plays hard in every game but never covers by 10 or 14pts.  They make you sweat it out all game long.  Not the type of game I enjoy playing.  I was leaning toward pulling the trigger on BC but I just couldn't. As far as the Marshall/Ohio game, I really like Marshall however Marshall committed 5 turnovers last week in the loss to Bowling Green.  Again, their are better matchups on the board than these two games but good luck if your playing either one.
 
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Posted: #82

Good luck fishsticks, thanks for the kind words. 

 
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Posted: #83
Mozart- I apologize, It was not you who asked the quest about BC/Va Tech.  Sorry and again, thank you for the kind words.  Best of luck this weekend.  Hopefully we'll be in the positive at the end of the day
 
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Posted: #84
L-N-L: your writeups are greatly appreciated as i do not get enough time to scout some of the games and you help to sway in certain directions. not on all of your plays but BOL to you tomorrow and the rest of the season


 
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Posted: #85

GL to you this weekend fiji

 
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Posted: #86
gl on your plays and not sure where you think you have an edge; you are betting so many games and basically playing your entire bankroll in one weekend; I like the Fl pick; I know a lot of gamblers and laying chalk is no big deal most of the time; this year overs are going over more than ever so offensive teams are doing well; i just don't see any logic in bettting 10k on one weekend if that is your bankroll; i have seen so many people on forums like this and lie about how much they bet so if they hit a streak people will start following them but just like this weekend if you have a bad weekend we wont see you again; good lck on your plays i am playing FL also I would rather the public win than the books.
 
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Posted: #87
dude....do us all a favor, stop analyzing me and my "bankroll" and start analyzing some games.  Show us how smart you are
 
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Posted: #88
I have posted my plays I know you are hoping to go on a streak so you can get a few people following you which is great I guess; I hope your plays hit; I have FL; I just dont know any successful gambler that bets his entire bankroll on one weekend unless he is lying which happens alot; no big deal gl  you are looking great on your 2nd play you will be up huge
 
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Posted: #89
Lock, great write ups

This is my first season betting on ncaaf, I watched/followed last season but didn't wager. So far this season, I'm up a few bucks.
I caught Miami lastnight, going into the weekend I took:

Stanford -4.5
NCST +8.5
VRTC -3.5
ALAB -7
OREG -12.5
ARZ  -7.5

and a sprinkle on WVIR +8.5 and GRGA +1.5

BOL Everyone
 
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Posted: #90
Tough loss; laying points on the road is like that but an extra point miss hurts; Gl on Tenn like 90% of the public is on the game so a ton of people agree with you its the top consensus pick; its a no play for me; not interested in playing teams that i just dont know what their minds are after 2 bad losses; Tenn should have kept Fulmer big mistake not haviing him there plus Kiffin left them in a worse position. You will get it back this week
 
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Posted: #91

TCU came out of the block extremely slow tonight.  They were never insync, especially in the 1st half.  I hope those of you who backed the Horned Frogs, got em at 17.  I got em at 17.5 and lost by a missed xtra point.   This game should have never been this close.  Very frustrating to lose by that missed extra point but that is the way it goes.  TCU kicker

 
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Posted: #92

Quote Originally Posted by kevatronix:

Take a look at the OVER on the TCU game @ 55.5 I do see that going way over regardless if TCU covers or not, SMU has the offense to put up 20 and TCU can handle the rest. Just a idea to semi hedge incase TCU shits there pants or your Moose friend visits, or Lane Kiffen calls for the Back door sweep.

Good call Kev.  Hope you played the over

 
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Posted: #93
Quote Originally Posted by Handicapper33:

I have posted my plays I know you are hoping to go on a streak so you can get a few people following you which is great I guess; I hope your plays hit; I have FL; I just dont know any successful gambler that bets his entire bankroll on one weekend unless he is lying which happens alot; no big deal gl  you are looking great on your 2nd play you will be up huge


i tried to find your picks and/or write ups, but found nothing. and in my analysis of your constant analysis of L-N-L's posts, i am wondering if you are on Florida, Florida Int'l, Florida St, Florida Atl or maybe Central Fla you had "FI" and "FL" in your posts. being a pro at this and all, i just figured you would be more specific. (and since you found ridicule in the accidental  'e' in rout) i would just like to know bc apparently on covers you are supposed to log and keep track of everyone elses picks and posts instead of pony-ing up yourself.

do us a favor, start your own post with your own picks and lessons and keep me from having to read your banter. disagree with the picks if you want, rationalize them too but who gives a shit how much anyone is wagering, real or fake.
 
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Posted: #94
Just a couple quick notes. I think you're over estimating Stanford's D. They have yet to play an offense and Wake is absolutely horrible right now, which leads to this... I love the FSU play. FSU should kill Wake. As far as ponder having a career day I just posted in another thread about his arm injury. It really tightened up on him last week which is why he didn't throw the deep ball but it doesnt even matter in this game. Wake can't stop anything and both their O line and D line is a mess. They have no QB or RB to add to it. FSU's backup, EJ Manuel started against a much better Wake team last year and won easily so it really has no bearing on this outcome. Noles win easily but think ND/Standford is much closer than you predict. This is only my opinion obviously. Anyone who played the 3 teams Stanford did in their 1st 3 would have a top 10 D
 
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Posted: #95

Locknload2010 best of luck with your plays!!!! And do not pay attention to handicapper33 unless he step up ad post some plays, he is just so jealux that nobody reads his picks!!!!

Winning is all that matters.

 
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Posted: #96
 Good luck this weekend.   Like the plays.
 
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Posted: #97

Sergio- GL today

L L Lord - GL today

 
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Posted: #98

Quote Originally Posted by GatsbySteve:

Lock, great write ups

This is my first season betting on ncaaf, I watched/followed last season but didn't wager. So far this season, I'm up a few bucks.
I caught Miami lastnight, going into the weekend I took:

Stanford -4.5
NCST +8.5
VRTC -3.5
ALAB -7
OREG -12.5
ARZ  -7.5

and a sprinkle on WVIR +8.5 and GRGA +1.5

BOL Everyone

Good Luck Gats... I like some of your plays but not the Va Tech or the Alabama.  I am leaning B/C and Arkansas but they are just leans for me.  Hope your stay in the positive after this weekend.

 
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Posted: #99
BOL todayLNL.  Once again thanks for your work.
 
 
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Posted: #100
Quote Originally Posted by locknload2010:

Agree with you 222.  Very well said.  I don't ever look at laying points on the road or getting points at home and get nervous.  I spend alot of time breaking down and analyzing the offensive and defensive units of both teams as if they were to square off on a neutral field.  If I feel the spread is more than 7 points off, I play it.  I don't worry about "laying chalk" on the road or "getting chalk at home" etc etc... There are several ways to handicap football, I just do it the way it has worked for me.

GL this week 222

Bama 30 Razorbacks 17

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