***week 4 plays and analysis ****

Arizona -6.5 ($550 to win $500) I realize that this is not gonna be a popular, sexy pick and I'm sorry for that but Arizona is going to win this one with their defense. The Golden Bears defense was exposed last week by a very good Nevada team. Arizona held off then 9th ranked Iowa last week 24-17 while Cal got trounced by Nevada 52-21.  This must be the most incorrect line on the card this week however I see why it is set where it is. The assumption is, Arizona's big win last week coupled with California's embarrassing loss to Nevada makes this more favorable towards the Golden Bears.  However, Arizona brings to this contest, the #3rd ranked defense in the country along with the 6th ranked passing offense.  Granted, they played cupcakes Toledo and The Citadel but in the Iowa game, they held the Hawkeyes to 307 total yards, many of those coming in the 3rd and 4th quarter.  Cal has played its share of cupcakes.  They crushed Div I-AA UC-Davis in week 1 and then Colorado in week 2 but were completely exposed last week by a Nevada team who tallied close to 500 total yards in total offense along with 26 1st downs. Arizona will have no trouble scoring against this Cal defense who allowed QB Colin Kaepernick do whatever he wanted in last weeks debacle.  Arizona QB Nick Foles is completing 78 % of his passes, is very efficient, and will lead Arizona to victory in this one.  Cal gets delt another loss as Arizona improves to 4-0, avenging last years loss 24-16. Wildcats in this one, 35-14

Week 4 will have more favs cover than dogs. I am playing a few dogs also and will release them later tonight. It looks like a strong weekend.  Good luck everyone on tonights game. 

Goodluck buddy. 55-6 Cardinal rolls over the Irish in a ROUTE!

Maybe not by that much lol. But yes I agree that the cards will beat the Irish by 14+

Not on board with miami and prob just not going to touch stanford havent had all the numbers come in yet on that game.....but what i do like is the fact you actually do some research and post your opinions I know it takes a lot of time. Look at my baseball picks I respect your effort and hope u crush the books. There is a lot of time put in to handicapping especially when you do it by yourself like I do. Everyone should appreciate the efforts of locknload..........

BOL LockNLoad! 

Appreciate the hard work.  GL LNL    

Good info. 

GL this week T.H. 

As always, Good Luck Xpress

GL "CL Kid"

Thanks Sportsfan...Good luck this weekend sir

Very kind words Brandon, thank you. I''ll take alook at your baseball picks. Hope you hammer em this weekend

A lot of Picks but whatever works for you. If you are posting before the games start then everybody can see if it works or not.......They can tail or chose not too. What I do know though is that the guys who are spending the time on the research and effort are not losing money or they would quit doing it after awhile. FYI playing 15 college football games out of what 60 or so is not the end of the world. 10 outta 15 sometimes can be easier than 2 outta 3. Just just flat bet them though in my opinion. Hell having 15 plays in is FUN for us degenerates...lol

GL Dr Flash

GL man I am with you on TCU and Miami lets make some money.

Here are my week 4 dogs (along with Army +6.5).  Good luck everyone in week 4

Sat Sept 25th "dogs"
 
Miami OH +18.5 ($550 to win $500)  The key to this game is can Miami OH run the ball. If they can, they will cover this big 18 point spread because Missouri is terrible against the run. Missouri has a very good passing game (16th in the country) and is very good defensively against the pass (22nd in the country) however they are not very good against the rush (79th in the country) and their ground game ranks about the same(75th in the country).  Last week, they needed a late 68 yard TD to sqeek out a victory against SD State 27-24.  In this game they gave up 440 total yards, 250 of those on the ground. Missouri QB Blain Gabbert has been good but not great.  He has 4 TDs and 2 INT's on the young season.  Against Illinois in week 1, it was the same story as the fighting Illini gained 200 yards on the ground but came up short 23-13. Missouri star DE Aldon Smith is out with a broken leg and this is going to hurt the Tigers defense as Smith set a school record last year with 11.5 sacks and leads the team this season with 3.  Miami OH Zach Dysert has 4 TD's and 5 INT's on the year but 4 of those INT's were against the Gators in week 1. Take away the cupcake game against Div I-AA McNeese St and the Missouri Tigers have scored an average of 25 points per game.  Take away the game against #4 Gators and the RedHawks have averaged 29 points per game.  Miami OH covers 34-31

South Carolina +3 ($330 to win $300) South Carolina has a ton of talent and speed here, something Coach Steve Spurrier was notorious for while coaching many years in Gainsville.  The Gamecocks QB Stephen Garcia has a talented speedster in Alshon Jeffery that will get open often against the Tigers 68th passing defense in the country. Jeffrey 6'4'' and 215 is big, strong and fast.  Superstar freshman tailback Marcus Lattimore considered the country's top tailback prospect should have a big game as Auburn struggled last week against clemson giving up 187 rushing yards and another 227 yards through the air.  Auburn showed last week that they were vulnerable against the speed of Clemson.  They escaped with an OT win 27-24 but giave up over 400 total yards and 27 first downs. South Carolina will bring speed plus talent in this one and Auburn will struggle.  South Carolina wins 34-21
 
Northern Illinois +4 ($440 to win $400)  Minnesota is a terrible team. The barely beat Mid Tenn St in week 1 then lost to Div I-AA South Dakota in their home opener.  Minnesota Tailback Duane Bennett, who is hampered by an ankle injury could miss this game.  He carried 7 times for 8 yrds in last weeks USC contest. This would be a HUGE loss for the Gophers as he has rushed for over 100 yrds in each of the teams 1st 2 games. No Illinois QB Chandler Harnish was very good last week against Illinois completing 19-25 for 208 yrds.  The Huskies also gained 163 yrds on the ground in that contest.  This balanced attack will cause problems for the Golden Gophers all day who gave up 408 yrds last week to a mediocre USC team.  They are also dealing with some off field issues having to suspend receiver Troy Stoudermire indefinitely for behavior detrimental to the team.  Minnesota is a mess and Northern Illinois is no pushover as they are the preseason favorite to win the MAC Western Div.  Northern Illinois wins this one outright 31-14

pretty good write ups

A nice way to start week 4 with a Miami Hurricanes crushing of the pathetic Pitt Panthers.  This one was a surprise to me in the fact that I underestimated how bad Pitt was.  I thought they would score at least a TD or two but not the case.So far on the week 1-0 up $250 and looking for more with TCU tonight and their 4th ranked defense in the country to dominate on National TV.  Good luck everyone.

Week 4

Miami -3.5 ($265 to win $250)

Thanks Instant_offense   Good luck this weekend sir

Great card bro.  BOL, tailing all the way.

Nice start for you also, LNL. BOL on tonights game.                   

  Well put my friend.  I am just 4 years shy of you from Boston originally.  Respect your work, opinions, oh by the way, the winner you provided last night in Cane game.

     Well said my friend.

Lockload, any leans in Marshal and VT games?  Appreciate any feedback.

Locknload ~~

I truly appreciate the effort and work that you have put into your own capping here, as well as your generous sharing of your picks.

Your team capping reports are very well-written and the colors make them very easy to read. I'm an editor on a couple of websites and I'll be the last one on Earth to make a fuss over any word -- making such a fuss is a great route to get in a hissy-fit, booing rout by the astute members of this board, yes? 

Ok, I'm mulling over the TCU/SMU game today and I'm nervous about SMU doing a backdoor and blowing the cover, like how it happened with the damn USC game where Minny came back and scored a damn junk TD with 20 seconds left, blowing my damn point spread by a half a freak'n point! @%#^#$^%!

And I had forgotten to shave a half a point (half a point up or down is all that my bookie -- a casino that is only an 8-minute walk away in beautiful forests -- allows) to bring it down from -11.5 to -11.0. And I had bet big on that one. Damn, that still stings to this day.

And I had bet big on Oakland recently, only to have the sure-to-fade White Sox come back and beat Oakland in the very last inning. I hate bad beats!

So I'm leaning strongly on going with a first-half bet for TCU to cover at -10 and for Over the total at 27 pts. And I may do a parlay with those two bets, too. And I have one good baseball bet to do also today.

Any comments by anyone about the idea of going first half only with the TCU/SMU game?

stanford! i love it man on it like sonic