Week 3: Friday Night and Early Sat. games

2026 NCAAF: 11 - 4 -0

2026 NFL: 5 - 4 - 1

Friday night one for me....

MIAMI / WAKE FOREST OVER 55.5 (-110 BETMGM)    

This Miami team looks legit. Mensah has basically operated like a machine through two games and I don’t see Wake slowing them down much tonight. I think Miami gets into the id 40s here and probably fairly comfortably.

Looking at the offensive Wake side;

Miami is missing three guys in the secondary and Gio Lopez has played pretty well so far. Wake just survived that crazy double OT game at Purdue and now gets Miami at home. Lopez has a little swagger in his step...I don’t think Wake can hang for four quarters, but I do think they can score enough against a depleted secondary to help us here with the total.

The MIA -20.5 is a little uncomfortable for me. But the total definitely isn’t. The weather could be a little messy early but looks like the showers may move through around kickoff and be nice the majority of the game. Got my number last night at BetMGM and this AM it looks like the number may actually be drifting down a little .... so you might get better than I did. Something like MIAMI 45 (or much more) WAKE 24, wouldn’t surprise me at all.

SATURDAY's EARLY CARD:

This next game is probably one of my biggest plays Saturday.

GEORGIA -25 (-105 BetMGM)     

Georgia hasn’t really played anybody yet, but they’ve absolutely destroyed the first two opponents and QB Gunner Stockton has barely had to play much in both games. 28 of 32, 8 TDs, no picks. Pretty efficient...albeit against waaaay lesser teams..I know

Now they finally get the SEC opener, first road game, and I actually think this is the perfect spot for them. Kirby Smart has won about 500 SEC openers in a row. Slight exaggeration but man he coaches his teams up so well.

Arkansas just got dismantled 43-10 at Utah and now gets this defense and this roster coming into their house. If they thought Utah was tough, these Bulldogs are about six levels above that.

Arkansas young QB trying to figure stuff out, new first year coach/staff trying to build something, and unfortunately Georgia is not the team you want to see while you’re trying to figure sh*t out. I think Georgia names the number here. Could honestly be covered by halftime if they come out sharp, and unlike the first two weeks I expect Stockton to actually play most of this game tomorrow.....Georgia wins this game BIG.

NEXT; turmoil vs turmoil  

NORTH CAROLINA +3.5 (BETMGM -130)    

I bought the hook because I like key number insurance and BetMGM's vig at -130 is horrible.. but I'll take it just the same with no apologies...

Everybody knows sh*tstorm going on at North Carolina inside right now. Steve Belichick resigning, Lombardi gone, all the garbage surrounding the program. But if there’s one guy I actually trust to somehow get a team focused through chaos, it’s probably Belichick. He’s had a little experience with that   UNC is 2-0 and I think he uses all of this, somehow, as fuel for his team.

Clemson on the other hand just looks broken offensively right now. Starting QB goes down last week, Tait Reynolds gets the start, and last week they needed FIVE field goals to beat Georgia Southern 22-7. Great for the kicker. Pretty horrible sign for the offense.

And Dabo’s seat isn’t hot anymore. It’s basically on fire and melting his team, the fanbase, alumni and their confidence. Clemson has owned this matchup forever. Seven straight, 9 of the last 10.... I actually think Belichick uses that too as motivation. Death Valley is obviously never an easy place to play, but I’m not sure it carries quite the same intimidation factor against this version of Clemson.

I think UNC can absolutely win this game outright and go 3-0.

@vegastimetravel

 Hope you're right. I'm tailin'. Thanks 

@BagOfCash

 me as well!!  

The weather in Wake tonight is a NON-FACTOR!!  I head someone here report that its a mess...no truth to that at all!

SATURDAY 3:30 EST - 2 Games

SMU/Louisville Over 58.5 (-110 BETMGM)      

This is one of my favorite plays on the board today.

There is just too much offense on both sides for me to trust either defense to keep this game under control for four quarters. I give Louisville the edge overall, but SMU knows exactly what kind of game this could turn into, and they’re going to have to score in bunches to stay with them.

The same is true the other way. Louisville isn’t going to be able to sit on a lead and play conservative football against an SMU offense that can strike quickly. I think both teams get into the 30s, and once this game opens up, I don’t see it slowing down.

Texas A&M -16.5 (-112 BETMGM) vs Kentucky    

Kentucky had Alabama on the ropes for a half last week, forcing turnovers and creating problems, but once Alabama settled in, the game completely flipped. Kentucky gave up 32 second-half points and ended up losing 45-17.

Now they have to turn around and go to Kyle Field against a Texas A&M team that has scored 98 points through two games and is 2-0.

I think this is a tough spot for Kentucky. A&M’s defense should make it difficult for KU to sustain drives and put enough points on the board, and I think the Aggies offense does enough over four quarters to pull away.

BOL Everyone