Week 1 Strategy

week one....hammer boise st and i mean hammer them........if you bet 2 dimes and its your only play you will be up 2 dimes..hammer them...

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

I went to Vegas last yr for week 1.... I took Alabama over Va Tech... Just like Saban  Win

Took- Boise St over Orgean-Like Peterson with long time to prepare at home Win

Took NC St over Cocks... Bad choice...Loss

Took KY over Miami of Ohio- This was my big pick...I put down major $$$ for me.... I saw a middle of Pack SEC team vs the worst MAC team giving 16 points on a nuetral field in Cincinnati...KY had 95% of the fans there...I won easy 45-0

I do think the lines are soft week 1...Just search..Youll find one you like..Easiest week to bet!!!!

Question for the solid handicappers:

OK, I don't qualify, but ignore the hype.

No team gets great over the off season and starts real hot.  But, there are teams that cool off fast. 

I look at Oregon St and know they lost a really good QB and that you can't fix in the first game.  Bet TCU.

That's what I look for.

Do you really think ND (after losing their QB and WR) is going to be a threat right away?

I love the first week.

Potiential Fades in week 1 are:

Teams with new coaches that are DD favorites.

Teams with a new QB on the road (especially if favored).

Teams with 3 or more new offensive lineman. These positions are more complicated than some people realize.

Big favorites (>3 TDs) with a big game the next week.  Ohio state is a prime example of this angle.

Teams that are favored but with less than half of their returning starters versus a team with two thirds of their starters returning.

These are a few things I look at in week 1 when capping the games.  If you find a team that 2 or more of the above apply to, that will definitely be a play for me. 

First find out a teams stability number (Coaching, QB, returning starters) this gives a good idea how stable these teams are comming in, but stability does not always win games, power wins.

Second find a teams power rating, specifically looking position to position.

I bet slow the first four wks of the season, unless teams are playing tough games, and not cup cakes.  After the fourth game I try to look at box scores and figure out what really happened on the field, mainly I look at turnovers, field position, and 3rd down conversions, wich teams controlled the clock well and controlled the field position in terms of how many yrds gained vrs points scored and yrds allowed vrs points allowed.  After wk four I have a much better idea of which UD's have value. 

gl all 

yes, an overrated boise state team traveling across country against a fellow top 10 team on a va tech friendly neutral field...

you should stay away from that boise state v. va tech game or go with va tech and take the points...

i would like more longhorns chances against BS U on any field including the Blue...

just read bookieassassin's post and realized that he pretty much already said what i said... with a bit more detailed explanation...