Question for the solid handicappers:
Since the preseason mags are usually clueless, what are the top 3 or 4 factors you look at to pick games in week 1? Do you find week 1 to be the most difficult to handicap?
Thanks in advance.
Super Chicken
Question for the solid handicappers:
Since the preseason mags are usually clueless, what are the top 3 or 4 factors you look at to pick games in week 1? Do you find week 1 to be the most difficult to handicap?
Thanks in advance.
Super Chicken
Question for the solid handicappers:
Since the preseason mags are usually clueless, what are the top 3 or 4 factors you look at to pick games in week 1? Do you find week 1 to be the most difficult to handicap?
Thanks in advance.
Super Chicken
personnel changes (captain obvious) however needs to be in relation to already adjusted new rating, for example whether returning many or few starters this will already be factored in, only value is whether new rating/line adjustment is too much or not enough
system changes may not be so effective in early games, then again some may pick up quick or players may thrive in new system or could be better personnel fit
if game expected to be blowout early, pay even more attention to 2nd/3rd team because that's who who will be playing in the last 1-1.5 quarters to build depth or rest up for next game
check team tendencies to start fast or slow (Ore St comes to mind....3-8 ATS in Sept over L3Y, plenty of other trends), still must fit in with other factors
team chemistry/motivation - sometimes tough to get a handle on early in the season since most players and coaches are saying the right thing and all optimistic
GL this year
personnel changes (captain obvious) however needs to be in relation to already adjusted new rating, for example whether returning many or few starters this will already be factored in, only value is whether new rating/line adjustment is too much or not enough
system changes may not be so effective in early games, then again some may pick up quick or players may thrive in new system or could be better personnel fit
if game expected to be blowout early, pay even more attention to 2nd/3rd team because that's who who will be playing in the last 1-1.5 quarters to build depth or rest up for next game
check team tendencies to start fast or slow (Ore St comes to mind....3-8 ATS in Sept over L3Y, plenty of other trends), still must fit in with other factors
team chemistry/motivation - sometimes tough to get a handle on early in the season since most players and coaches are saying the right thing and all optimistic
GL this year
Man... You could be more right... The minute i seen your name on this thread I spit out my coffee...
So what is the over/under on ND this year ? 7-8 wins?
Man... You could be more right... The minute i seen your name on this thread I spit out my coffee...
So what is the over/under on ND this year ? 7-8 wins?
I like to find what I would have set the line at if the two teams would've played after the final regular season game the previos year. from there I will take the player/coaching situation into consideration to get my opening number.
After I identify the games where my line is 2+ points different than the oddsmakers, I will break those games down further and find the ones I am comortable with. I use this strategy for the first 3 weeks.
I like to find what I would have set the line at if the two teams would've played after the final regular season game the previos year. from there I will take the player/coaching situation into consideration to get my opening number.
After I identify the games where my line is 2+ points different than the oddsmakers, I will break those games down further and find the ones I am comortable with. I use this strategy for the first 3 weeks.
QB changes, offensive line changes, system changes, coaching changes, returning "quality" starters
I put quality in quotes because I can't stand when people make bets early in the season based on returning starters, if the starters weren't that good last year then they most likely aren't going to make a huge difference early in the season this year
QB changes, offensive line changes, system changes, coaching changes, returning "quality" starters
I put quality in quotes because I can't stand when people make bets early in the season based on returning starters, if the starters weren't that good last year then they most likely aren't going to make a huge difference early in the season this year
Some teams get really banged up going through fall practice...
keep an eye on the teams' message boards.
I think it was two years ago MTSU was lining up tightends and walk-ons just so the second team could practice. Troy covered easily in the opener.
Some teams get really banged up going through fall practice...
keep an eye on the teams' message boards.
I think it was two years ago MTSU was lining up tightends and walk-ons just so the second team could practice. Troy covered easily in the opener.
Some teams get really banged up going through fall practice...
keep an eye on the teams' message boards.
I think it was two years ago MTSU was lining up tightends and walk-ons just so the second team could practice. Troy covered easily in the opener.
Some teams get really banged up going through fall practice...
keep an eye on the teams' message boards.
I think it was two years ago MTSU was lining up tightends and walk-ons just so the second team could practice. Troy covered easily in the opener.
Question for the solid handicappers:
Since the preseason mags are usually clueless, what are the top 3 or 4 factors you look at to pick games in week 1? Do you find week 1 to be the most difficult to handicap?
Thanks in advance.
Super Chicken
Question for the solid handicappers:
Since the preseason mags are usually clueless, what are the top 3 or 4 factors you look at to pick games in week 1? Do you find week 1 to be the most difficult to handicap?
Thanks in advance.
Super Chicken
Man... You could be more right... The minute i seen your name on this thread I spit out my coffee...
So what is the over/under on ND this year ? 7-8 wins?
Man... You could be more right... The minute i seen your name on this thread I spit out my coffee...
So what is the over/under on ND this year ? 7-8 wins?
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