....Added a GOY play. I think Ole Miss still has some solid talent, especially on offense. The front 7 on D is a concern; the run defense may not be much better after underachieving last year. I think they'll be a volatile team this year in terms of motivation week to week. After blowing their load at Alabama (I think), I'm taking Auburn at home the following week in this spot. The Ole Miss schedule is long road trip (Cal), bye, at Alabama, at Auburn. 4 weeks without a home game is mentally tough and this team's motivation will be what.... playing spoiler. I don't think they bring their best game back to back in this situation.
Week 1 card:
Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u) (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5 (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Troy +12.5 -112 (0.75u)
Kansas State -25.5 (0.5u)
UAB -9.5 (0.5u)
East Carolina +6 (0.25u)
Tulane -19 (0.25u)
Pittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u)
College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u) 8/26 vs. Chattanooga
GOY plays:
9/9: Auburn +6 (at Clemson) (0.5u)
9/9: Ohio State -7 (vs. Oklahoma) (1u)
9/16: Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal) (1u)
9/23: N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State) (0.5u)
9/30: Arkansas -23.5 (vs. New Mexico State) (0.5u)
10/7: Added: Auburn -14 (vs. Ole Miss) (0.5u)
10/21: Missouri -16.5 (vs. Idaho) (0.5u)
11/18: Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota) (0.5u)
....Added a GOY play. I think Ole Miss still has some solid talent, especially on offense. The front 7 on D is a concern; the run defense may not be much better after underachieving last year. I think they'll be a volatile team this year in terms of motivation week to week. After blowing their load at Alabama (I think), I'm taking Auburn at home the following week in this spot. The Ole Miss schedule is long road trip (Cal), bye, at Alabama, at Auburn. 4 weeks without a home game is mentally tough and this team's motivation will be what.... playing spoiler. I don't think they bring their best game back to back in this situation.
Week 1 card:
Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u) (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5 (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Troy +12.5 -112 (0.75u)
Kansas State -25.5 (0.5u)
UAB -9.5 (0.5u)
East Carolina +6 (0.25u)
Tulane -19 (0.25u)
Pittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u)
College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u) 8/26 vs. Chattanooga
GOY plays:
9/9: Auburn +6 (at Clemson) (0.5u)
9/9: Ohio State -7 (vs. Oklahoma) (1u)
9/16: Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal) (1u)
9/23: N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State) (0.5u)
9/30: Arkansas -23.5 (vs. New Mexico State) (0.5u)
.... Been gone for a couple days. 20 year HS reunion -- damn, getting old. It's all relative though.
HS classmate's funeral also this weekend. Sad deal -- really successful investment guy -- addiction problem though. *Sorry for the off topic. Gives some real perspective to life though. Day to day "problems" not so bad for most of us.
Back to this college football thing.... mostly caught up finally on FBS. 8/26 games have Totals out now. Like that. Should be soon for the remaining week 1 Totals to be released. Ready for a few of those.
Still behind (for the most part) on College Extra FCS games. Did find a little time Friday night and again tonight to look into a couple games of interest. Added some small plays below.
College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u) 8/26 vs. Chattanooga
Added: McNeese State -1.5
Added: Tennessee-Martin -32.5
.... Been gone for a couple days. 20 year HS reunion -- damn, getting old. It's all relative though.
HS classmate's funeral also this weekend. Sad deal -- really successful investment guy -- addiction problem though. *Sorry for the off topic. Gives some real perspective to life though. Day to day "problems" not so bad for most of us.
Back to this college football thing.... mostly caught up finally on FBS. 8/26 games have Totals out now. Like that. Should be soon for the remaining week 1 Totals to be released. Ready for a few of those.
Still behind (for the most part) on College Extra FCS games. Did find a little time Friday night and again tonight to look into a couple games of interest. Added some small plays below.
Portland State was a surprise playoff team in 2015. Ran the ball well on offense (10th in the nation or so). Graduation hit hard, especially on defense. A regression was expected in 2016. Then..... Portland State had two players die unexpectedly in the offseason (1 apparent overdose and 1 due to complications from a surgery). Also, another player's toddler son was killed (struck by a car). This was a team that was emotionally on empty! The defense played alot of new guys including true freshmen and jumped from allowing 22 ppg in 2015 to allowing 39 ppg in 2016. For 2017 they should be improved to 6-5 or so (they do open with two FBS teams -- both will be losses). 2017 team returns 7 starts on both O & D. The deepest position groups are the O-line (69 career starts return) and the Secondary. WR could be a solid position too with last year's leading returnee Adams back from injury that cost him most of 2016. The QB that was beat out two years ago by FBS transfer Alex Kuresa has played WR since then. If he does not start at QB (moved back this spring) he'll play WR again. The front 7 on D needs to improve. But one of their better DTs was only a FR last year and they did sign a JUCO LB to help. I think they have enough back and a better mindset this year to stay within the #.
Another big reason I like Portland State has to do with BYU. HC Sitake is a defensive guy who doesn't mind an ugly low scoring game (3-10 O/U in his 1st year). I think Sitake is the type that would prefer to win 24-3 and physically manhandle the other team rather than win say 56-28. Against a Big Sky opponent last year (Southern Utah), the score in the 2nd half was 6-0. He did not run up the score. And this year, is BYU really going to show their hand against Portland State with their ridiculous schedule the next 3 weeks (LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin).... I personally do not think so. And BYU is breaking in new WRs which matches up somewhat favorably (relatively speaking) for the Portland State secondary which has plenty of returning experience. I think the way this bet potentially goes south is if BYU gets a shutout, say, 35-0. But I think it's going to be more like 31-10 ish. BYU will get a solid win and move on to LSU. Portland State will keep it within the number then move on to .... Oregon State. I actually think Oregon State beats them worse than BYU. Tough for an FCS school to play two physical FBS teams back to back.
Wow. I was looking for a reason to play Portland State. I think I have it right here.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Portland State was a surprise playoff team in 2015. Ran the ball well on offense (10th in the nation or so). Graduation hit hard, especially on defense. A regression was expected in 2016. Then..... Portland State had two players die unexpectedly in the offseason (1 apparent overdose and 1 due to complications from a surgery). Also, another player's toddler son was killed (struck by a car). This was a team that was emotionally on empty! The defense played alot of new guys including true freshmen and jumped from allowing 22 ppg in 2015 to allowing 39 ppg in 2016. For 2017 they should be improved to 6-5 or so (they do open with two FBS teams -- both will be losses). 2017 team returns 7 starts on both O & D. The deepest position groups are the O-line (69 career starts return) and the Secondary. WR could be a solid position too with last year's leading returnee Adams back from injury that cost him most of 2016. The QB that was beat out two years ago by FBS transfer Alex Kuresa has played WR since then. If he does not start at QB (moved back this spring) he'll play WR again. The front 7 on D needs to improve. But one of their better DTs was only a FR last year and they did sign a JUCO LB to help. I think they have enough back and a better mindset this year to stay within the #.
Another big reason I like Portland State has to do with BYU. HC Sitake is a defensive guy who doesn't mind an ugly low scoring game (3-10 O/U in his 1st year). I think Sitake is the type that would prefer to win 24-3 and physically manhandle the other team rather than win say 56-28. Against a Big Sky opponent last year (Southern Utah), the score in the 2nd half was 6-0. He did not run up the score. And this year, is BYU really going to show their hand against Portland State with their ridiculous schedule the next 3 weeks (LSU, Utah, and Wisconsin).... I personally do not think so. And BYU is breaking in new WRs which matches up somewhat favorably (relatively speaking) for the Portland State secondary which has plenty of returning experience. I think the way this bet potentially goes south is if BYU gets a shutout, say, 35-0. But I think it's going to be more like 31-10 ish. BYU will get a solid win and move on to LSU. Portland State will keep it within the number then move on to .... Oregon State. I actually think Oregon State beats them worse than BYU. Tough for an FCS school to play two physical FBS teams back to back.
Wow. I was looking for a reason to play Portland State. I think I have it right here.
When I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
When I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
TD, Love hearing your FCS picks. I was going to ask you if you had any?
I'm waiting around on the FBS plays at this point. Got 12 plays I like and several GOY's. Of course the GOY's are just plays I want to lock in hoping for positive spreads at game time. Can always buy out or play subtle changes. Not likely but may double up in certain plays.
The FCS intrigue me right now. Several need investigation.
The McNeese game I like from the start. No bet yet.
Talk to me about Tenn. Mart. -32.5? Where's your confidence here if I can ask?
Stay Hard, Doc
TD, Love hearing your FCS picks. I was going to ask you if you had any?
I'm waiting around on the FBS plays at this point. Got 12 plays I like and several GOY's. Of course the GOY's are just plays I want to lock in hoping for positive spreads at game time. Can always buy out or play subtle changes. Not likely but may double up in certain plays.
The FCS intrigue me right now. Several need investigation.
The McNeese game I like from the start. No bet yet.
Talk to me about Tenn. Mart. -32.5? Where's your confidence here if I can ask?
Love it that Totals are starting to come out.Just added:Ohio State / Indiana Under 53 (0.5u)Should be plenty more out tomorrow based on when 2016 Totals were released.
Couple more openers added early this morning:
BYU / LSU Under 47.5 (1.5u) Florida State / Alabama Under 53 (1u)
Should have a few more once the remaining Totals are released.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Love it that Totals are starting to come out.Just added:Ohio State / Indiana Under 53 (0.5u)Should be plenty more out tomorrow based on when 2016 Totals were released.
Couple more openers added early this morning:
BYU / LSU Under 47.5 (1.5u) Florida State / Alabama Under 53 (1u)
Should have a few more once the remaining Totals are released.
Scal / Pecador, saw your posts.... Have a coaching meeting tonight after work. Hopefully will have time after that to discuss a few games.
One of the main reasons I like PS over BYU at this line as wel is because I am not high on BYU this year. Over under 9.5? Even though they play 13 games, I have them under. And if you remember BYU started out ultra-sloppy/conservative against an awful (we didn't know it at the time) AZ team last year, winning by a hair at the gun.
33 here with your reasoning above seems like a rock solid play.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Scal / Pecador, saw your posts.... Have a coaching meeting tonight after work. Hopefully will have time after that to discuss a few games.
One of the main reasons I like PS over BYU at this line as wel is because I am not high on BYU this year. Over under 9.5? Even though they play 13 games, I have them under. And if you remember BYU started out ultra-sloppy/conservative against an awful (we didn't know it at the time) AZ team last year, winning by a hair at the gun.
33 here with your reasoning above seems like a rock solid play.
When
I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts
of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the
post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
No post yet on this game. Quite frankly it was an unexpected play at
the time, but I grabbed the line based on what I believed was value that I
wouldn’t see later. I checked my 2016
FCS playoff notes (and Pecador if you’re reading this, if it makes you feel any
better, yes, these particular notes were in a spiral notebook ).When the playoff bracket was announced, JMU the
#4 seed had a Sagarin Rating of 65.31.After 4 straight wins and an FCS national title, they jumped all the way
to 79.16.Almost 14 points higher than
their 10-1 regular season rating.I
believe that most computer power ratings raw #s have overvalued JMU with that
significant increase to end the season.And
the line we’re discussing now is based on all (well, many) of those power ratings
rolled into one (Massey).
Decided to circle back today and take a
better look at JMU. The defense might be
as good or better than the 2016 version.
Each position group loses one starter but returns everyone else and
other contributors. Call it 8 starters
back on defense and no one position group was hit hard by graduation. I don’t think ECU scores at will on these
guys. The JMU offense may regress some,
especially early in the year while breaking in new starters. The O-line loses its starting Center, RG, and
All American RT. The left side returns
intact with the LT being a 2017 preseason All American. 1,800+ yard rusher Abdullah is gone, but they
should be ok at RB if the line cooperates.
#2 RB was sidelined and OFY after 9 games (700 yrds rushing, 6.2 ypc)
and #3 RB also added 600+ yrds. And they
add in Georgia Tech’s #2 rusher (over 600 rushing yards in both 2015 &
2016) who has strong ypc #s. Probably
more worrisome than RB (despite the loss of Abdullah) is that 3 of the top 4
WRs are gone. 3 starters lost combined
for: 123 catches for 1,844 receiving
yards. Top 3 back (including TE with 7
TDs) combined for: 89 catches for 1,163
yrds. Not terrible by any means, but
these WRs in particular will have an expanded role and need a newcomer or two to emerge.
ECU’s strength on offense should still be the
passing game despite losing Jones. Every
other WR back plus 2015 WRs that missed LY.
The ECU run defense may not be any better. Key to the game there!, Will they be able to hold their own against
JMU’s run first offense? They should be
focused as JMU will have their attention.
Much needed win here for HC Montgomery.
The Secondary appears to be the (relative) strength of this ECU defense
(3 starters back plus former Auburn SS is the lone new starter). Maybe a slight matchup advantage with some
newcomers in the JMU WR corps?? Overall,
if Sirk is healthy and can play, then I like ECU’s chances to win SU, but not a
slam dunk by any means. May be a tough
game for them. The more I look into
this, may like Under 70.5 better than the side play (but I still see nothing
wrong with ECU + points for a small play).
Again, that Total is based mostly on last year. JMU slightly better on D, slightly worse on O…
some value there on this Total. Plus, I’d
have to check my betting logs, but I did have quite a bit of success last year
playing JMU Under in 2016 in certain spots.
Massey almost always comes up with a total in the high 60s (or more). JMU was worse on defense in 2015 and that
contributed to some of those high Totals early in 2016. Anyway, JMU defense a little
undervalued. Maybe still undervalued.
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
When
I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts
of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the
post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
No post yet on this game. Quite frankly it was an unexpected play at
the time, but I grabbed the line based on what I believed was value that I
wouldn’t see later. I checked my 2016
FCS playoff notes (and Pecador if you’re reading this, if it makes you feel any
better, yes, these particular notes were in a spiral notebook ).When the playoff bracket was announced, JMU the
#4 seed had a Sagarin Rating of 65.31.After 4 straight wins and an FCS national title, they jumped all the way
to 79.16.Almost 14 points higher than
their 10-1 regular season rating.I
believe that most computer power ratings raw #s have overvalued JMU with that
significant increase to end the season.And
the line we’re discussing now is based on all (well, many) of those power ratings
rolled into one (Massey).
Decided to circle back today and take a
better look at JMU. The defense might be
as good or better than the 2016 version.
Each position group loses one starter but returns everyone else and
other contributors. Call it 8 starters
back on defense and no one position group was hit hard by graduation. I don’t think ECU scores at will on these
guys. The JMU offense may regress some,
especially early in the year while breaking in new starters. The O-line loses its starting Center, RG, and
All American RT. The left side returns
intact with the LT being a 2017 preseason All American. 1,800+ yard rusher Abdullah is gone, but they
should be ok at RB if the line cooperates.
#2 RB was sidelined and OFY after 9 games (700 yrds rushing, 6.2 ypc)
and #3 RB also added 600+ yrds. And they
add in Georgia Tech’s #2 rusher (over 600 rushing yards in both 2015 &
2016) who has strong ypc #s. Probably
more worrisome than RB (despite the loss of Abdullah) is that 3 of the top 4
WRs are gone. 3 starters lost combined
for: 123 catches for 1,844 receiving
yards. Top 3 back (including TE with 7
TDs) combined for: 89 catches for 1,163
yrds. Not terrible by any means, but
these WRs in particular will have an expanded role and need a newcomer or two to emerge.
ECU’s strength on offense should still be the
passing game despite losing Jones. Every
other WR back plus 2015 WRs that missed LY.
The ECU run defense may not be any better. Key to the game there!, Will they be able to hold their own against
JMU’s run first offense? They should be
focused as JMU will have their attention.
Much needed win here for HC Montgomery.
The Secondary appears to be the (relative) strength of this ECU defense
(3 starters back plus former Auburn SS is the lone new starter). Maybe a slight matchup advantage with some
newcomers in the JMU WR corps?? Overall,
if Sirk is healthy and can play, then I like ECU’s chances to win SU, but not a
slam dunk by any means. May be a tough
game for them. The more I look into
this, may like Under 70.5 better than the side play (but I still see nothing
wrong with ECU + points for a small play).
Again, that Total is based mostly on last year. JMU slightly better on D, slightly worse on O…
some value there on this Total. Plus, I’d
have to check my betting logs, but I did have quite a bit of success last year
playing JMU Under in 2016 in certain spots.
Massey almost always comes up with a total in the high 60s (or more). JMU was worse on defense in 2015 and that
contributed to some of those high Totals early in 2016. Anyway, JMU defense a little
undervalued. Maybe still undervalued.
One of the main reasons I like PS over BYU at this line as wel is because I am not high on BYU this year. Over under 9.5? Even though they play 13 games, I have them under. And if you remember BYU started out ultra-sloppy/conservative against an awful (we didn't know it at the time) AZ team last year, winning by a hair at the gun.
33 here with your reasoning above seems like a rock solid play.
I really think BYU plays pretty vanilla in this game. With the #1 RB gone, some new WRs, and with that front end loaded schedule especially, I don't think they're looking for a blowout win here. Main concern is that Portland State can't score at all. 10 points would be great.... 42-10 wins. I still really like the play. If it loses, it because the score is 38-3 or so. Or a shutout.
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
One of the main reasons I like PS over BYU at this line as wel is because I am not high on BYU this year. Over under 9.5? Even though they play 13 games, I have them under. And if you remember BYU started out ultra-sloppy/conservative against an awful (we didn't know it at the time) AZ team last year, winning by a hair at the gun.
33 here with your reasoning above seems like a rock solid play.
I really think BYU plays pretty vanilla in this game. With the #1 RB gone, some new WRs, and with that front end loaded schedule especially, I don't think they're looking for a blowout win here. Main concern is that Portland State can't score at all. 10 points would be great.... 42-10 wins. I still really like the play. If it loses, it because the score is 38-3 or so. Or a shutout.
Should be plenty more out tomorrow based on when 2016 Totals were released.
Interesting early line movement.... guess I was the only one that got the memo that this Tom Allen / Mike DeBord lead Indiana team is not going to play at all like they did under Kevin Wilson. Likely more boring on offense (insert DeBord joke) and solid on defense, especially the back 7.
I've cautiously added a small amount to my original play at Under 55 (0.25u) for a 0.75 unit play overall. I think if this goes Over, then OSU did most of the scoring and OSU -20.5 wins. I really cannot see Indiana putting up 17 points. If that # sticks until Team Totals come out, then I will be taking Indiana Under 17.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
Love it that Totals are starting to come out.
Just added:
Ohio State / Indiana Under 53 (0.5u)
Should be plenty more out tomorrow based on when 2016 Totals were released.
Interesting early line movement.... guess I was the only one that got the memo that this Tom Allen / Mike DeBord lead Indiana team is not going to play at all like they did under Kevin Wilson. Likely more boring on offense (insert DeBord joke) and solid on defense, especially the back 7.
I've cautiously added a small amount to my original play at Under 55 (0.25u) for a 0.75 unit play overall. I think if this goes Over, then OSU did most of the scoring and OSU -20.5 wins. I really cannot see Indiana putting up 17 points. If that # sticks until Team Totals come out, then I will be taking Indiana Under 17.
TD, Love hearing your FCS picks. I was going to ask you if you had any?
I'm waiting around on the FBS plays at this point. Got 12 plays I like and several GOY's. Of course the GOY's are just plays I want to lock in hoping for positive spreads at game time. Can always buy out or play subtle changes. Not likely but may double up in certain plays.
The FCS intrigue me right now. Several need investigation.
The McNeese game I like from the start. No bet yet.
Talk to me about Tenn. Mart. -32.5? Where's your confidence here if I can ask?
Stay Hard, Doc
Tennessee-Martin should take care of business
here at under -35. Clarion is not NAIA Bacone or Bethel bad (see UTM game
logs for recent year non-conf games, but they were 4-7 in a mostly average D2
league in Pennsylvania last year. This league is ok I guess; they’ll
(the league, not Clarion) represent their super region in the final 4 of the
playoffs from time to time, but usually get handled easily by the true D2 big
boys in the other regions. Clarion could
not run on offense (less than 100 ypg) in 2016.
Passing game was their relative strength but they must replace a lot of
production at QB and top 2 WRs (going from memory here—did look it up a couple
days ago). Top RB also gone. The most productive guy back is a RB/slot WR
hybrid type guy. They look very green on
offense. And UTM is pretty good on
defense, especially the Secondary this year.
I don’t see Clarion scoring much at all.
The key to this cover is how many points UTM will put up. I think they’ll be just fine on offense here
with a former transfer QB back. I forget
the losses at WR (believe it’s 3 of top 5).
There were a couple guys lost, however, I did notice that one WR back
for 2017 actually had a better year in 2015 than ’16. He’s expected to play a bigger role. Clarion appears to have been a younger
defense in 2016 (allowed a staggering 500 ypg).
They’ll be improved in conference play maybe, but not enough to slow down
UTM in my opinion. And HC Simpson does
not appear to have any problem running up the score (again, really bad NAIA
teams maybe not the best comparison).
Several FCS games I had initially circled as
leans are pretty picked over by now.So
may not have a full card of College Extra Games until Week 2.You can take WIU, but your bet will likely be
cancelled.Western Illinois wins that
game straight up. EIU also not a bad play, but road game at a MVFC team maybe trickier than I think at a glance, but Indiana State is down right now -- 1st year HC in this game.
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:
TD, Love hearing your FCS picks. I was going to ask you if you had any?
I'm waiting around on the FBS plays at this point. Got 12 plays I like and several GOY's. Of course the GOY's are just plays I want to lock in hoping for positive spreads at game time. Can always buy out or play subtle changes. Not likely but may double up in certain plays.
The FCS intrigue me right now. Several need investigation.
The McNeese game I like from the start. No bet yet.
Talk to me about Tenn. Mart. -32.5? Where's your confidence here if I can ask?
Stay Hard, Doc
Tennessee-Martin should take care of business
here at under -35. Clarion is not NAIA Bacone or Bethel bad (see UTM game
logs for recent year non-conf games, but they were 4-7 in a mostly average D2
league in Pennsylvania last year. This league is ok I guess; they’ll
(the league, not Clarion) represent their super region in the final 4 of the
playoffs from time to time, but usually get handled easily by the true D2 big
boys in the other regions. Clarion could
not run on offense (less than 100 ypg) in 2016.
Passing game was their relative strength but they must replace a lot of
production at QB and top 2 WRs (going from memory here—did look it up a couple
days ago). Top RB also gone. The most productive guy back is a RB/slot WR
hybrid type guy. They look very green on
offense. And UTM is pretty good on
defense, especially the Secondary this year.
I don’t see Clarion scoring much at all.
The key to this cover is how many points UTM will put up. I think they’ll be just fine on offense here
with a former transfer QB back. I forget
the losses at WR (believe it’s 3 of top 5).
There were a couple guys lost, however, I did notice that one WR back
for 2017 actually had a better year in 2015 than ’16. He’s expected to play a bigger role. Clarion appears to have been a younger
defense in 2016 (allowed a staggering 500 ypg).
They’ll be improved in conference play maybe, but not enough to slow down
UTM in my opinion. And HC Simpson does
not appear to have any problem running up the score (again, really bad NAIA
teams maybe not the best comparison).
Several FCS games I had initially circled as
leans are pretty picked over by now.So
may not have a full card of College Extra Games until Week 2.You can take WIU, but your bet will likely be
cancelled.Western Illinois wins that
game straight up. EIU also not a bad play, but road game at a MVFC team maybe trickier than I think at a glance, but Indiana State is down right now -- 1st year HC in this game.
When I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
Scal I will have a huge write up on this game, in about a week when Coach Montgomery announces the starter. I may have played at ECU and have some good inside information.
Early notes from Camp is that Sirk has played really well, but has yet to show the explosiveness in the Pass/Read option game as he did at Duke. Might be because he is afraid to blow out his achilles again, but he definitely has the skillset to be the #1. Btw we had a few grad transfers that will start this year. Most Notably Tim Irvin from Auburn has been the standout of camp as a SS and Tyshon Dye from Clemson will in the backfield at RB.
ECU was a team last year that had many bad breaks and turnovers that cost us games, but we did beat NC State and barely lost to South Carolina. I see us winning by 14+ and its easily the biggest play for me Week 1.
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
When I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
Scal I will have a huge write up on this game, in about a week when Coach Montgomery announces the starter. I may have played at ECU and have some good inside information.
Early notes from Camp is that Sirk has played really well, but has yet to show the explosiveness in the Pass/Read option game as he did at Duke. Might be because he is afraid to blow out his achilles again, but he definitely has the skillset to be the #1. Btw we had a few grad transfers that will start this year. Most Notably Tim Irvin from Auburn has been the standout of camp as a SS and Tyshon Dye from Clemson will in the backfield at RB.
ECU was a team last year that had many bad breaks and turnovers that cost us games, but we did beat NC State and barely lost to South Carolina. I see us winning by 14+ and its easily the biggest play for me Week 1.
No post yet on this game. Quite frankly it was an unexpected play at
the time, but I grabbed the line based on what I believed was value that I
wouldn’t see later. I checked my 2016
FCS playoff notes (and Pecador if you’re reading this, if it makes you feel any
better, yes, these particular notes were in a spiral notebook ).When the playoff bracket was announced, JMU the
#4 seed had a Sagarin Rating of 65.31.After 4 straight wins and an FCS national title, they jumped all the way
to 79.16.Almost 14 points higher than
their 10-1 regular season rating.I
believe that most computer power ratings raw #s have overvalued JMU with that
significant increase to end the season.And
the line we’re discussing now is based on all (well, many) of those power ratings
rolled into one (Massey).
Decided to circle back today and take a
better look at JMU. The defense might be
as good or better than the 2016 version.
Each position group loses one starter but returns everyone else and
other contributors. Call it 8 starters
back on defense and no one position group was hit hard by graduation. I don’t think ECU scores at will on these
guys. The JMU offense may regress some,
especially early in the year while breaking in new starters. The O-line loses its starting Center, RG, and
All American RT. The left side returns
intact with the LT being a 2017 preseason All American. 1,800+ yard rusher Abdullah is gone, but they
should be ok at RB if the line cooperates.
#2 RB was sidelined and OFY after 9 games (700 yrds rushing, 6.2 ypc)
and #3 RB also added 600+ yrds. And they
add in Georgia Tech’s #2 rusher (over 600 rushing yards in both 2015 &
2016) who has strong ypc #s. Probably
more worrisome than RB (despite the loss of Abdullah) is that 3 of the top 4
WRs are gone. 3 starters lost combined
for: 123 catches for 1,844 receiving
yards. Top 3 back (including TE with 7
TDs) combined for: 89 catches for 1,163
yrds. Not terrible by any means, but
these WRs in particular will have an expanded role and need a newcomer or two to emerge.
ECU’s strength on offense should still be the
passing game despite losing Jones. Every
other WR back plus 2015 WRs that missed LY.
The ECU run defense may not be any better. Key to the game there!, Will they be able to hold their own against
JMU’s run first offense? They should be
focused as JMU will have their attention.
Much needed win here for HC Montgomery.
The Secondary appears to be the (relative) strength of this ECU defense
(3 starters back plus former Auburn SS is the lone new starter). Maybe a slight matchup advantage with some
newcomers in the JMU WR corps?? Overall,
if Sirk is healthy and can play, then I like ECU’s chances to win SU, but not a
slam dunk by any means. May be a tough
game for them. The more I look into
this, may like Under 70.5 better than the side play (but I still see nothing
wrong with ECU + points for a small play).
Again, that Total is based mostly on last year. JMU slightly better on D, slightly worse on O…
some value there on this Total. Plus, I’d
have to check my betting logs, but I did have quite a bit of success last year
playing JMU Under in 2016 in certain spots.
Massey almost always comes up with a total in the high 60s (or more). JMU was worse on defense in 2015 and that
contributed to some of those high Totals early in 2016. Anyway, JMU defense a little
undervalued. Maybe still undervalued.
A MUST WIN....desperation game for EC............not really for JM.........>> .this one won't effect their season at all.....in fact......a loss would be (maybe) the BEST thing for them.....< fat / happy off title run
Scottie loses here?.......he can go ahead and tell his wife to schedule the U-Haul......along with a service to clean the beer cans / toilet paper outta the yard of course............
Talking INTENSITY / FOCUS.....in PREPARATION as always....
$ I don't see anyway that JM can match the edge that EC has here ..........but SURE....they (JM) might be good enough it doesn't matter
It is better to be feared - than to be loved.
Quote Originally Posted by TD21:
No post yet on this game. Quite frankly it was an unexpected play at
the time, but I grabbed the line based on what I believed was value that I
wouldn’t see later. I checked my 2016
FCS playoff notes (and Pecador if you’re reading this, if it makes you feel any
better, yes, these particular notes were in a spiral notebook ).When the playoff bracket was announced, JMU the
#4 seed had a Sagarin Rating of 65.31.After 4 straight wins and an FCS national title, they jumped all the way
to 79.16.Almost 14 points higher than
their 10-1 regular season rating.I
believe that most computer power ratings raw #s have overvalued JMU with that
significant increase to end the season.And
the line we’re discussing now is based on all (well, many) of those power ratings
rolled into one (Massey).
Decided to circle back today and take a
better look at JMU. The defense might be
as good or better than the 2016 version.
Each position group loses one starter but returns everyone else and
other contributors. Call it 8 starters
back on defense and no one position group was hit hard by graduation. I don’t think ECU scores at will on these
guys. The JMU offense may regress some,
especially early in the year while breaking in new starters. The O-line loses its starting Center, RG, and
All American RT. The left side returns
intact with the LT being a 2017 preseason All American. 1,800+ yard rusher Abdullah is gone, but they
should be ok at RB if the line cooperates.
#2 RB was sidelined and OFY after 9 games (700 yrds rushing, 6.2 ypc)
and #3 RB also added 600+ yrds. And they
add in Georgia Tech’s #2 rusher (over 600 rushing yards in both 2015 &
2016) who has strong ypc #s. Probably
more worrisome than RB (despite the loss of Abdullah) is that 3 of the top 4
WRs are gone. 3 starters lost combined
for: 123 catches for 1,844 receiving
yards. Top 3 back (including TE with 7
TDs) combined for: 89 catches for 1,163
yrds. Not terrible by any means, but
these WRs in particular will have an expanded role and need a newcomer or two to emerge.
ECU’s strength on offense should still be the
passing game despite losing Jones. Every
other WR back plus 2015 WRs that missed LY.
The ECU run defense may not be any better. Key to the game there!, Will they be able to hold their own against
JMU’s run first offense? They should be
focused as JMU will have their attention.
Much needed win here for HC Montgomery.
The Secondary appears to be the (relative) strength of this ECU defense
(3 starters back plus former Auburn SS is the lone new starter). Maybe a slight matchup advantage with some
newcomers in the JMU WR corps?? Overall,
if Sirk is healthy and can play, then I like ECU’s chances to win SU, but not a
slam dunk by any means. May be a tough
game for them. The more I look into
this, may like Under 70.5 better than the side play (but I still see nothing
wrong with ECU + points for a small play).
Again, that Total is based mostly on last year. JMU slightly better on D, slightly worse on O…
some value there on this Total. Plus, I’d
have to check my betting logs, but I did have quite a bit of success last year
playing JMU Under in 2016 in certain spots.
Massey almost always comes up with a total in the high 60s (or more). JMU was worse on defense in 2015 and that
contributed to some of those high Totals early in 2016. Anyway, JMU defense a little
undervalued. Maybe still undervalued.
A MUST WIN....desperation game for EC............not really for JM.........>> .this one won't effect their season at all.....in fact......a loss would be (maybe) the BEST thing for them.....< fat / happy off title run
Scottie loses here?.......he can go ahead and tell his wife to schedule the U-Haul......along with a service to clean the beer cans / toilet paper outta the yard of course............
When I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
Scal, did you see the JMU suspension news?
Those top 2 (only 2) returning WR/TE that I mentioned above are now BOTH suspended for this game! The other big loss (of the 6 total suspended) is LB Hereford who was the #2 tackler in 2016.
When I finally do grab this ECU line. It will likely be 4.5. What are your thoughts of JMU keeping up with ECU or beating them outright. Or just refer me to the post. Is this all because Sirk may/may not be named the starter?
Scal, did you see the JMU suspension news?
Those top 2 (only 2) returning WR/TE that I mentioned above are now BOTH suspended for this game! The other big loss (of the 6 total suspended) is LB Hereford who was the #2 tackler in 2016.
TD, I think you made a smart move with @Mizz. -16.5 and @Ark. -23.5 . I guess they came out while I wasn't looking. Maybe I missed something but that Mizz. game makes me want add to it. Got both for a unit. Good pick, your my reliable handicapper buddy. Thanks.
In one of your post I thought you said you had coaches meetings. Good. 2 Kids, coaching, the wife. Laundry for the team and some students need extra help. Organizing tournaments and trips. Teaching classes .Lunchroom monitoring the idiots. What did I leave out? Oh, of course, maybe some spare time to really coach.
Your Dad must have a wry smile on his face. You want to be a coach?
I exaggerate. Good luck this autumn.
Stay hard, Doc
TD, I think you made a smart move with @Mizz. -16.5 and @Ark. -23.5 . I guess they came out while I wasn't looking. Maybe I missed something but that Mizz. game makes me want add to it. Got both for a unit. Good pick, your my reliable handicapper buddy. Thanks.
In one of your post I thought you said you had coaches meetings. Good. 2 Kids, coaching, the wife. Laundry for the team and some students need extra help. Organizing tournaments and trips. Teaching classes .Lunchroom monitoring the idiots. What did I leave out? Oh, of course, maybe some spare time to really coach.
Your Dad must have a wry smile on his face. You want to be a coach?
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