Posted:
#126
TD, Thanks for posting solid info. Just perusing some of the Conference info is good. Always take you serious. Agree with most.
Stay Hard, Doc
Week 1 Lines are Up
Posted:
#128
Quote Originally Posted by sportschat:
BOL this year TD
BOL this year TD
sportschat, good luck to you too in 2017!
..... what's the word so far on coach Rocco?. Pretty experienced team returning. Do you think some new leadership can help them turn the corner in year 1? They might be a team in the College Extra betting world that has some value if they can ever find a little more balance on offense.
Posted:
#129
Mountain West added below -- Looks like a Year 0 for a couple of these new head coaches.
......still tweaking a few #s elsewhere as I'm starting to have enough work done to compare teams from different conferences. First pass is kinda that particular conference reviewed somewhat alone in a bubble.
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s for a few conferences:
Pac 12:
USC 91.4
Washington 91.3
Stanford 84.8
WSU 80.2
Utah 79.0
UCLA 79.0
Oregon 77.7
Colorado 75.5
Oregon State 75.2
Arizona State 70.8
California 66.5
Arizona 66.0
Sun Belt:
Appalachian State 71.1
Troy 68.7
Arkansas State 63.9
Georgia Southern 58.3
Louisiana Lafayette *55.2
Idaho 55.2
Georgia State 54.6
Louisiana Monroe 54.2
Coastal Carolina 52.2
South Alabama 50.2
New Mexico State 48.1
Texas State 41.9
*assumes potentially suspended players remain on the team.
MAC:
Toledo 72.3
Western Michigan 70.8
Miami (Ohio) 67.3
Ohio U. 63.1
Eastern Michigan 60.4
Northern Illinois 58.2
Central Michigan 57.6
Akron 56.0
Ball State 55.9
Bowling Green 55.3
Buffalo 49.7
Kent State 48.1
Big Ten:
Ohio State 95.2
Penn State 89.6
Wisconsin 88.4
Michigan 86.1
Northwestern 78.5
Iowa 75.6
Nebraska 75.2
Indiana 73.2
Minnesota 72.6
Michigan State 70.9
Maryland 68.6
Purdue 62.9
Illinois 60.8
Rutgers 58.9
Mountain West:
Colorado State 76.9
San Diego State 75.3
Boise State 74.2
Wyoming 68.0
Air Force 62.0
Utah State 60.4
New Mexico 60.0
Hawaii 59.5
UNLV 54.3
Fresno State 54.1
Nevada 52.8
San Jose State 50.1
Posted:
#131
Quote Originally Posted by Pecador:
TD, I'm beginning to think your Port. St. play has some merit. Like most games it may come down to ball control. I figure Port. can get 3 or 4 time consumer drives.
Stay Hard, Doc
Doc, it's back up to +32 on 5D. If Portland State can muster up enough offense to score 7 to 10 points, I like my chances as I don't see BYU with a new WR corps and especially with that schedule in weeks 2-4 going into blowout mode in the 2nd half. I'm sure you saw it awhile back, but more detailed thoughts on this game are back in post #68 of this thread.
Posted:
#132
Guess I never did update that I couldn't resist a small play on the Tulane game after reviewing this one in detail.
Week 1 card:
9/16: Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal) (1u)
Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u) (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5 (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Kansas State -25.5 (0.5u)
UAB -9.5 (0.5u)
East Carolina +6 (0.25u)
Added: Tulane -19 (0.25u)
College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u) 8/26 vs. Chattanooga
GOY plays:
9/9: Auburn +6 (at Clemson) (0.5u)
9/9: Ohio State -7 (vs. Oklahoma) (0.5u)
11/18: Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota) (0.5u)
*HC Freeze now out - hope the interim HC keeps up the ATS wins in non-conf.
N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State) (0.5u)
Posted:
#133
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:
Non-Power 5 Conferences: added AAC below
not sure I'm crazy about Applewhite and his new DC at Houston long term, but the talent level will be solid in 2017. The O-line (now with better experience & hopefully better health) and RBs (add Colorado transfer plus top RBs are back) should allow the running game to improve so their offense is not so reliant on QB play. The run D with Ed Oliver & Co. should remain strong if they'll play hard for this DC.
AAC:
Houston 79.3
South Florida 77.9
Memphis 75.0
Tulsa 72.0
Navy 71.6
Central Florida 70.3
SMU 69.0
Temple 67.1
Cincinnati 64.7
Tulane 61.0
East Carolina 57.6
Connecticut 56.1
CUSA:
Western Kentucky 70.6
Louisiana Tech 69.6
Middle Tennessee 68.7
Texas San Antonio 63.6
Old Dominion 60.5
Southern Miss 59.3
Marshall 58.5
Florida International 56.5
North Texas 55.9
Florida Atlantic 54.1
Rice 50.2
UAB 48.0
UTEP 46.2
Charlotte 42.5
MAC:
Toledo 72.3
Western Michigan 70.8
Miami (Ohio) 67.3
Ohio U. 63.1
Eastern Michigan 60.4
Northern Illinois 58.2
Central Michigan 57.6
Akron 56.0
Ball State 55.9
Bowling Green 55.3
Buffalo 49.7
Kent State 48.1
MWC:
Colorado State 76.9
San Diego State 75.3
Boise State 74.2
Wyoming 68.0
Air Force 62.0
Utah State 60.4
New Mexico 60.0
Hawaii 59.5
UNLV 54.2
Fresno State 54.1
Nevada 52.8
San Jose State 50.1
Sun Belt:
Appalachian State 71.1
Troy 68.7
Arkansas State 63.9
Georgia Southern 58.3
Louisiana Lafayette 55.2
Idaho 55.2
Georgia State 54.6
Louisiana Monroe 54.2
Coastal Carolina 52.2
South Alabama 50.2
New Mexico State 48.1
Texas State 41.9
Posted:
#134
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:
Non-Power 5 Conferences: added Independents below .... and should be done with the ACC by this weekend.
AAC:
Houston 79.3
South Florida 77.9
Memphis 75.0
Tulsa 72.0
Navy 71.6
Central Florida 70.3
SMU 69.0
Temple 67.1
Cincinnati 64.7
Tulane 61.0
East Carolina 57.6
Connecticut 56.1
CUSA:
Western Kentucky 70.6
Louisiana Tech 69.6
Middle Tennessee 68.7
Texas San Antonio 63.6
Old Dominion 60.5
Southern Miss 59.3
Marshall 58.5
Florida International 56.5
North Texas 55.9
Florida Atlantic 54.1
Rice 50.2
UAB 48.0
UTEP 46.2
Charlotte 42.5
MAC:
Toledo 72.3
Western Michigan 70.8
Miami (Ohio) 67.3
Ohio U. 63.1
Eastern Michigan 60.4
Northern Illinois 58.2
Central Michigan 57.6
Akron 56.0
Ball State 55.9
Bowling Green 55.3
Buffalo 49.7
Kent State 48.1
MWC:
Colorado State 76.9
San Diego State 75.3
Boise State 74.2
Wyoming 68.0
Air Force 62.0
Utah State 60.4
New Mexico 60.0
Hawaii 59.5
UNLV 54.2
Fresno State 54.1
Nevada 52.8
San Jose State 50.1
Sun Belt:
Appalachian State 71.1
Troy 68.7
Arkansas State 63.9
Georgia Southern 58.3
Louisiana Lafayette 55.2
Idaho 55.2
Georgia State 54.6
Louisiana Monroe 54.2
Coastal Carolina 52.2
South Alabama 50.2
New Mexico State 48.1
Texas State 41.9
Independents:
Notre Dame 81.5
BYU 78.0
Army 62.3
Massachusetts 56.9
Posted:
#138
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:
Power 5 Conferences: added ACC below .... and a couple tweaks to previous #s
Some random thoughts & comments on a few of these ACC teams....
#4 - #6 teams nationally all graded out very close (USC, Washington, & Clemson), and I suspect Auburn will be around #7 when I get through the SEC. *And really USC needs to be bumped down a notch due to playing 12 straight games alone. Biggest thing with Clemson that affects their PR# is QB play. One could bump this # down to start the year until we see what we have at QB. The front 7 on D should be even better. If this team can stay hungry off a title and how much of a drop off at QB are the main questions. I think there's a decent chance Auburn could win straight up early in the year with Carlson making several long FGs. That may be a good thing for Clemson in the big picture as they seemed to regain focus last year after the Pitt loss.
FSU - biggest concern is that O-line. Defense looks real tough.
NC State - it's now or never for my man D. Doeren. If the Secondary can hold up I expect a strong year. They look solid everywhere else.
Miami - concerns are QB and replacing losses in the Secondary. If they go into their usual post-FSU funk, then vs. Toledo and at Duke could be tricky games. But then there's a bye week and I think from then on their PR# could/should go up as the QB & Secondary come along.
Louisville - volatile team from an ATS margins perspective. Should continue in 2017.
Pitt - this team has quite a bit more raw talent than I realized. Inexperienced yes, but a couple early non-conf losses may just set up for a nice learning curve going into conference play. They avoid the toughest teams from the other half of the league and get all season to gain experience before closing with 3 big games that will determine if they can surprise and challenge in the Coastal.
Boston College - their biggest problem is the corners can't match up athletically with the best WRs in this league. Adjust accordingly on the PR# against those opponents. Against teams that don't have such an athletic advantage on the perimeter, they'll hold their own from an ATS perspective. *BTW, NIU does not have these types of WRs.
Syracuse - kinda tough to have them this low. I do like them in non-conf spots early (CMU game in particular) but its tough to see much 2nd year growth with that schedule from week #4 thru week #10 (or even week #12). I hope QB Dungey learned to slide because there are some tough defenses all in a row those weeks. The guy seems to like getting his bell rung. ... New Safety from Notre Dame via JUCO is not eligible now either.
ACC:
Florida State 92.8
Clemson 91.2
North Carolina State 83.2
Miami 82.4
Virginia Tech 79.9
Pittsburgh 77.3
North Carolina 75.6
Georgia Tech 73.6
Duke 71.9
Boston College 68.6
Wake Forest 66.9
Virginia 65.9
Syracuse 65.7
Big Ten:
Ohio State 95.2
Penn State 89.6
Wisconsin 87.9
Michigan 85.3
Northwestern 78.5
Iowa 75.6
Nebraska 75.2
Indiana 73.2
Minnesota 72.6
Michigan State 70.9
Maryland 68.6
Purdue 62.9
Illinois 60.8
Rutgers 58.9
Pac 12:
USC 91.4
Washington 91.3
Stanford 84.8
Washington State 79.7
UCLA 79.0
Utah 78.3
Oregon 77.4
Colorado 75.5
Oregon State 75.2
Arizona State 70.8
California 66.5
Arizona 66.0
Big 12:
Working on it.... some time next week.
SEC:
Later
Posted:
#139
Been waiting on a line move for a small play on this one.....just got it.
Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u) (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5 (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Kansas State -25.5 (0.5u)
UAB -9.5 (0.5u)
East Carolina +6 (0.25u)
Tulane -19 (0.25u)
Added: Pittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u)
College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u) 8/26 vs. Chattanooga
GOY plays:
9/9: Auburn +6 (at Clemson) (0.5u)
9/9: Ohio State -7 (vs. Oklahoma) (0.5u)
11/18: Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota) (0.5u)
9/23: N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State) (0.5u)
Posted:
#140
2017 Preseason (first pass) PR#s:
Power 5 Conferences: added BIG 12 below
ACC:
Florida State 92.8
Clemson 91.2
North Carolina State 83.2
Miami 82.4
Virginia Tech 79.9
Pittsburgh 77.3
North Carolina 75.6
Georgia Tech 73.6
Duke 71.9
Boston College 68.6
Wake Forest 66.9
Virginia 65.9
Syracuse 65.7
Big Ten:
Ohio State 95.2
Penn State 89.6
Wisconsin 87.9
Michigan 85.3
Northwestern 78.5
Iowa 75.6
Nebraska 75.2
Indiana 73.2
Minnesota 72.6
Michigan State 70.9
Maryland 68.6
Purdue 62.9
Illinois 60.8
Rutgers 58.9
Pac 12:
USC 91.4
Washington 91.3
Stanford 84.8
Washington State 79.7
UCLA 79.0
Utah 78.3
Oregon 77.4
Colorado 75.5
Oregon State 75.2
Arizona State 70.8
California 66.5
Arizona 66.0
Big 12:
Oklahoma 88.6
Oklahoma State 88.0
Texas 81.9
Kansas State 81.1
TCU 81.0
West Virginia 73.9
Baylor 72.1
Iowa State 70.7
Texas Tech 69.0
Kansas 62.3
SEC:
Later
Posted:
#141
Added to GOY Lines.....
Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u) (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5 (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Kansas State -25.5 (0.5u)
UAB -9.5 (0.5u)
East Carolina +6 (0.25u)
Tulane -19 (0.25u)
Pittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u)
College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u) 8/26 vs. Chattanooga
GOY plays:
9/9: Auburn +6 (at Clemson) (0.5u)
9/9: Ohio State -7 (vs. Oklahoma) Added to this, again at -7 (now 1u)
9/16: Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal) (1u)
9/23: N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State) (0.5u)
9/30: Added: Arkansas -23.5 (vs. New Mexico State) (0.5u)
10/21: Added: Missouri -16.5 (vs. Idaho) (0.5u)
11/18: Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota) (0.5u)
Posted:
#142
Just noticed that I somehow left off Louisville from the original ACC PR#s
Power 5 Conferences:
ACC:
Florida State 92.8
Clemson 91.2
North Carolina State 83.2
Miami 82.4
Louisville 81.7
Virginia Tech 79.9
Pittsburgh 77.3
North Carolina 75.6
Georgia Tech 73.6
Duke 71.9
Boston College 68.6
Wake Forest 66.9
Virginia 65.9
Syracuse 65.7
Big Ten:
Ohio State 95.2
Penn State 89.6
Wisconsin 87.9
Michigan 85.3
Northwestern 78.5
Iowa 75.6
Nebraska 75.2
Indiana 73.2
Minnesota 72.6
Michigan State 70.9
Maryland 68.6
Purdue 62.9
Illinois 60.8
Rutgers 58.9
Pac 12:
USC 91.4
Washington 91.3
Stanford 84.8
Washington State 79.7
UCLA 79.0
Utah 78.3
Oregon 77.4
Colorado 75.5
Oregon State 75.2
Arizona State 70.8
California 66.5
Arizona 66.0
Big 12:
Oklahoma 88.6
Oklahoma State 88.0
Texas 81.9
Kansas State 81.1
TCU 81.0
West Virginia 73.9
Baylor 72.1
Iowa State 70.7
Texas Tech 69.0
Kansas 62.3
SEC:
Later
Posted:
#143
Quote Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:
i have to admit BC sucks but their defense is stingy. UNDER worth of a look, i also like your TX and Wolfpack.
I agree BC has some issues, playing on the road at NIU..but, what are your plays that you consider better value than this? right now, I have Texas, LSU, Bama, Kentucky, and Memphis...
Posted:
#144
Yeh, Love the @Mizz, game below the 17 number. Had that one figured. As with all late season GOY can play it differently and who knows, maybe a double win. At 10/21 maybe Mizz. holding back their best players and game plan. Not a conference game so mostly 2nd team.
Like @Ark. big here but same as above. 9/30 is a rest date for Ark. before the real season starts. Will they cover -23.5? I like making the play now and working other bets along side. This one and the above might be 1st half plays. Not sure TT's will be offered but the underdogs may be plays.
Stay Hard, Doc
Posted:
#145
....pulled the string early this morning on another game we've been discussing. Haven't had a chance to post all day. Looking into some USF & NC State small action as well.
Boston College -3 (2.5u) & -2.5 (1u) -- 3.5u total
Portland State +31 & +32 (1u) (0.5u each)
Buffalo +28 (1u)
Rutgers +31.5 -115 (1u)
Colorado State +8.5 (0.75u)
Texas Tech -7 (hook) (0.5u) & -9.5 (0.25u)
Added: Troy +12.5 -112 (0.75u)
Kansas State -25.5 (0.5u)
UAB -9.5 (0.5u)
East Carolina +6 (0.25u)
Tulane -19 (0.25u)
Pittsburgh -13.5 -130 (0.25u)
College Extra:
Jacksonville State -2.5 (1u) 8/26 vs. Chattanooga
GOY plays:
9/9: Auburn +6 (at Clemson) (0.5u)
9/9: Ohio State -7 (vs. Oklahoma) (1u)
9/16: Ole Miss -3.5 (at Cal) (1u)
9/23: N.C. State +19.5 (at Florida State) (0.5u)
9/30: Arkansas -23.5 (vs. New Mexico State) (0.5u)
10/21: Missouri -16.5 (vs. Idaho) (0.5u)
11/18: Northwestern -5.5 (vs. Minnesota) (0.5u)
Hot Forum Topics
